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David Trainer

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  • Netflix: Even More Dangerous [View article]

    The problem with that argument is that in Netflix's highest margin year before it started international expansion it only hit 8% NOPAT margins, and that was even before Amazon Prime and others put as much pressure on NFLX. NFLX and HBO don't have the same business model, HBO does not have those same huge costs for outside content that NFLX does.
    Apr 4 06:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Even More Dangerous [View article]

    Amazon Prime, Hulu, some new service that hasn't been created yet. Plus, even if they stay with Netflix, the rising content costs will keep margins down.
    Apr 4 04:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Even More Dangerous [View article]

    It's true that there's a timing mismatch, but the point is that content obligations are rising much faster than revenues. It's not just a matter of obligations being larger in total, but also that they continue to grow rapidly. All of NFLX's revenue growth won't help them if content costs keep rising.
    Apr 4 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Even More Dangerous [View article]

    Great comment. Their 10-K shows that of the $7.3 billion in content obligations NFLX has, only $83 million is more than five years out. $3 billion is for less than 1 year, and $6.2 billion is due within three years.
    Apr 4 12:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Angie's List [View article]
    Mo Money 2011:

    I wrote a followup in January here:

    ANGI's business model remains flawed and the valuation, even though it's come down a ways, is still far too high.
    Mar 31 05:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Dunkin' Brands Group [View article]

    There are Starbucks and McDonald's in the northeast, but Dunkin' has a greater concentration and brand awareness in that area, giving them a better chance to compete there. The map I showed is not my own data, it comes from an outside source and each dot does not represent a single store, it represents the nearest store in a 10-mile radius. There are plenty of Starbucks on the east coast, but Dunkin' has the greater concentration.
    Mar 28 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Dunkin' Brands Group [View article]

    Dunkin has much better brand awareness and reputation on the East Coast. And I wouldn't say that it wins, as it has a much lower ROIC than these companies.
    Mar 27 03:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comcast And Time Warner Rank Near Bottom Of Customer Surveys [View instapost]
    Wow, well put Seeking Truth.
    Mar 26 01:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Stocks Make Most Attractive/Dangerous Lists For January [View article]
    Intrepid Investor:

    Thanks for reading and commenting. My opinion on AAPL is unchanged. Their margins and ROIC continued to decline in 2013, the company has guided to lower gross margins in the next couple quarters, and nothing I've heard about the iWatch convinces me that this is a game changing product. I expect ROIC and margins to continue to decline until AAPL's metrics are closer to their competitors.
    Mar 25 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best And Worst ETFs, Mutual Funds And Key Holdings: Mid Cap Blend Style [View article]

    On the contrary, my Most Attractive stocks outperformed the broad market in 2013:

    Our ratings are in fact not based on FASB standards, they are based on the adjustments we make to GAAP numbers to make them more useful to investors. Our services are absolutely investment oriented and meant to help investors avoid market risks and select the best stocks.
    Mar 24 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Tuesday Morning [View article]
    Retail Maven:

    Thanks for your comment and for your solid research. Sorry about the silly typo.
    Mar 18 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Stocks Make Most Attractive/Dangerous Lists For March [View article]

    The word "we" refers to my research firm, New Constructs. As for the unusual price movements you reference, markets are always going to be volatile and unpredictable in the short term. That's why my research is geared toward long-term investors. Prices may move unusually day to day, but over the long term Ford's cheap valuation and strong fundamentals should see it outperform.
    Mar 14 11:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Definition: Price-To-EBV, Or Price To Economic Book Value Ratio [View instapost]

    Not sure if you you meant for that comment to be on this article:

    Either way I agree. The struggles of a prominent competitor like GM might have stockholders, and, more importantly, consumers switching to F.
    Mar 14 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Avoid The Worst Style Mutual Funds [View article]
    Great comment.
    One of the key purposes of our research and these article is to provide investors with the research needed to make prudent decisions.

    Just b/c people are not researching holdings does not mean that is a prudent practice.
    Certainly, it is not prudent for anyone with fiduciary responsibilities or giving advice.

    We do that hard work for clients to help them fulfill fiduciary responsibilities and apply the proper diligence.
    Mar 13 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Low-Cost Funds Dupe Investors - Q1 2014 [View article]
    Fair point.
    Our product is geared more towards PMs and advisors.

    But I must ask, how much is diligence worth?
    Performance over the long term is driven more by avoiding blow-ups than catching upswings.
    For smaller portfolios (less than $200,000), our service is a bit expensive but it is also more important as you can afford to lose less.

    For larger portfolios, however, our service is incredibly well-priced.

    Our institutional customers pay as much as $3,000 per month for access to our analytics.

    You can buy individual company/ETF/mutual fund reports for just $25 each.
    Mar 13 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment