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David Trainer

 
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  • Rating Breakdown: Best And Worst ETFs And Mutual Funds By Sector [View article]
    My pleasure - I think you might also like to see my study on how low-cost funds dupe investors.
    It contains unique analysis on the entire ETF and mutual fund markets for US equities.

    http://bit.ly/Uh1z84
    Feb 12, 2013. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • February's Most DANGEROUS Stocks Available To The Public [View instapost]
    pollyserial:
    Thank you for your candor.
    Most people want to be alerted to all my publications.
    There are not may posts like this.
    I am sorry this seems like noise to you. For others, it is a helpful reminder.
    Feb 12, 2013. 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best And Worst ETFs And Mutual Funds: Energy Sector [View article]
    ManAboutDallas:
    Congrats on your success.
    Swing trading takes unique skill and I commend you on making it work on GASL.

    My articles are focused on "investing" as distinct from "trading" or speculating. I think I am focused on a different audience than you.

    More on the distinction between "investing" and "speculating": http://seekingalpha.co...
    Feb 12, 2013. 11:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rating Breakdown: Best And Worst ETFs And Mutual Funds By Sector [View article]
    Good question.
    No, my cost analysis is not on the commissions charged to trade ETFs, but on the fees charged to manage/provide them.

    One could argue that Schwab's new offering is not as "free" as they lead to believe given that many of their offerings have sub-optimal liquidity compared to other ETFs and, therefore, may offer poor bid/ask spreads which costs investors more than a commission.

    Great article on that subject by Chuck Jaffe, the top columnist on funds at MarketWatch: http://on.mktw.net/YU7Klh.

    Chuck's main point, and I totally agree, is that choosing ETFs (or mutual funds) is not about costs as much as it is about choosing the best fund.
    Feb 12, 2013. 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best And Worst ETFs And Mutual Funds: Health Care Sector [View article]
    blogiant:
    The fervor of your comments is impressive. Thank you for writing.
    Your knowledge of science seems impressive as well.

    I do not pretend to be a scientist or an expert on ow drugs make it thru clinical trials. Those are both endeavors that carry their own market and field of study. And few people are experts in both - as I am sure you know.

    My point is not that SRPT is a bad company but that its valuation presents risk to investors. As I wrote: "To justify its share price of ~$24.68, the company must grow revenues by 20% compounded annually for nearly 20 years while also raising its ROIC from -43% (as of fiscal year 2011) to +50%."

    Those are, simply put, high expectations for future cash flows. Sure, you may, b/c of your deep scientific knowledge, believe SRPT can do better than that (which is what you need to believe to think the stock will go up).

    But how many other investors would you expect to make the same bet?

    I do not think other investors, unless they have expertise like yours and insight into how SRPT's drugs will do in clinical trials, should take such risks. Just no smart.

    Thank you for your comment.
    Feb 7, 2013. 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best And Worst ETFs And Mutual Funds: Health Care Sector [View article]
    bio-guy:
    Thank you for your comment and enthusiasm. SRPT is lucky to have people as supportive as you.

    My point is not that SRPT is a bad company but that its valuation presents risk to investors. As I wrote: "To justify its share price of ~$24.68, the company must grow revenues by 20% compounded annually for nearly 20 years while also raising its ROIC from -43% (as of fiscal year 2011) to +50%."

    My friend, those are high expectations for any company - especially a bio-tech.
    Feb 7, 2013. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best And Worst ETFs And Mutual Funds: Information Technology Sector [View article]
    rcpatrick5443 -
    Thanks for your comment.
    The explosion in data is going to be good for many tech companies.
    You might like my piece on how "The Cloud Is Good for Western Digital". http://seekingalpha.co...
    Feb 7, 2013. 03:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sector Rankings For ETFs And Mutual Funds [View article]
    We compare each fund to its most appropriate benchmark. Here is a copy of one of my reports: http://bit.ly/WIn3LE
    Feb 2, 2013. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sector Rankings For ETFs And Mutual Funds [View article]
    number19:
    You make a fair point.
    I do not make the sector classifications - that's done by S&P primarily.
    The main difference between utilities and other companies is that utilities are regulated and the rates they charge are determined by the regulators so they do not profit too much from selling consumers a necessity. As a result, their profits are capped.
    Feb 2, 2013. 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Carpenter Technology [View article]
    Note: 2012 operating income from the Latrobe acquisition was actually $66.3 million (based on annualizing the $22.1mm in operating income for 4 months of the fiscal year) not the $24.9 reported on page 29 of the 10K. That amounts to a 7.9% return on invested capital after tax, which is higher than the 3.0% I originally posted - both are below WACC which means the acquisition is not economically accretive.

    Nothing about the thesis of my article changes b/c of this update.
    Jan 28, 2013. 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bail Out Of Delta Before The Stock Crashes [View article]
    I know exactly how you feel.
    Jan 28, 2013. 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bail Out Of Delta Before The Stock Crashes [View article]
    Erick McKitterick - very good point, Erick.
    Jan 27, 2013. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best And Worst ETFs And Mutual Funds: All Cap Blend Style [View article]
    the 1Q13 version of this report will be out in a few weeks or earlier.
    Jan 27, 2013. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Large-Cap Value Has 36 Aliases In ETF World [View article]
    RobberBaron:
    Thank you for your reply.
    Do you not think that research on the holdings of an ETF is helpful?
    after all, with so many ETFs having the same label, how else does on differentiate one from another?
    Jan 27, 2013. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bail Out Of Delta Before The Stock Crashes [View article]
    Erick McKitterick:
    Thank you for your comment.
    I covered my short position months ago at a nice profit.
    This stock is tricky though b/c it bounces up and down a lot.
    My thesis, however, has not changed.
    DAL was recently added to my Most Dangerous Stocks list for January.
    Jan 21, 2013. 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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