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David Trainer

 
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  • Best And Worst ETFs And Mutual Funds: Health Care Sector [View article]
    bio-guy:
    Thank you for your comment and enthusiasm. SRPT is lucky to have people as supportive as you.

    My point is not that SRPT is a bad company but that its valuation presents risk to investors. As I wrote: "To justify its share price of ~$24.68, the company must grow revenues by 20% compounded annually for nearly 20 years while also raising its ROIC from -43% (as of fiscal year 2011) to +50%."

    My friend, those are high expectations for any company - especially a bio-tech.
    Feb 7 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best And Worst ETFs And Mutual Funds: Information Technology Sector [View article]
    rcpatrick5443 -
    Thanks for your comment.
    The explosion in data is going to be good for many tech companies.
    You might like my piece on how "The Cloud Is Good for Western Digital". http://seekingalpha.co...
    Feb 7 03:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sector Rankings For ETFs And Mutual Funds [View article]
    We compare each fund to its most appropriate benchmark. Here is a copy of one of my reports: http://bit.ly/WIn3LE
    Feb 2 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sector Rankings For ETFs And Mutual Funds [View article]
    number19:
    You make a fair point.
    I do not make the sector classifications - that's done by S&P primarily.
    The main difference between utilities and other companies is that utilities are regulated and the rates they charge are determined by the regulators so they do not profit too much from selling consumers a necessity. As a result, their profits are capped.
    Feb 2 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Carpenter Technology [View article]
    Note: 2012 operating income from the Latrobe acquisition was actually $66.3 million (based on annualizing the $22.1mm in operating income for 4 months of the fiscal year) not the $24.9 reported on page 29 of the 10K. That amounts to a 7.9% return on invested capital after tax, which is higher than the 3.0% I originally posted - both are below WACC which means the acquisition is not economically accretive.

    Nothing about the thesis of my article changes b/c of this update.
    Jan 28 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bail Out Of Delta Before The Stock Crashes [View article]
    I know exactly how you feel.
    Jan 28 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bail Out Of Delta Before The Stock Crashes [View article]
    Erick McKitterick - very good point, Erick.
    Jan 27 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best And Worst ETFs And Mutual Funds: All Cap Blend Style [View article]
    the 1Q13 version of this report will be out in a few weeks or earlier.
    Jan 27 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Large-Cap Value Has 36 Aliases In ETF World [View article]
    RobberBaron:
    Thank you for your reply.
    Do you not think that research on the holdings of an ETF is helpful?
    after all, with so many ETFs having the same label, how else does on differentiate one from another?
    Jan 27 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bail Out Of Delta Before The Stock Crashes [View article]
    Erick McKitterick:
    Thank you for your comment.
    I covered my short position months ago at a nice profit.
    This stock is tricky though b/c it bounces up and down a lot.
    My thesis, however, has not changed.
    DAL was recently added to my Most Dangerous Stocks list for January.
    Jan 21 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: iShares S&P MidCap 400 Growth Index Fund (IJK) [View article]
    JRLUTZ:
    Check out my free fund screener.
    Not sure I can provide you all the answers, but I offer lots of good info for free.
    Jan 21 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best & Worst ETFs & Mutual Funds: Materials Sector [View article]
    alphafan11 - thanks you for your comment.
    Jan 21 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Avoid The Worst Style ETFs [View article]
    A5RFTY -
    Thank you for your comment. You are correct. ProShares' Ultra Russell2000 (UWM), UltraPro Russell2000 (URTY) and Ultra Russell2000 Growth (UKK) are the worst-rated, not best, ETFs in Figure 1.
    Jan 17 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Cabot Oil & Gas [View article]
    Agreed. The write-downs essentially represent the amount of 'accelerated' amortization that takes place. Once the asset is written down, it no longer needs to be amortized so amortization is much lower going forward, earnings and margins look better than they should.

    That fact manifests in my model via a lower ROIC b/c the capital base of the company is really much larger, after adding back the write-downs, than what most investors realize.

    I think we are saying the same thing: COG is not as profitable as it appear b/c the business requires more capital than what the income statement shows.
    Jan 9 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 10 Hidden Management Failures [View article]
    Mark Anthony:
    Thank you for your comment.
    Here is a link to a more detailed report on asset write-downs: http://bit.ly/13gL9Tm.

    That report does not have all detai.s - that is not something we give away for free. Enormous amounts of work go into finding and modeling all the asset write-downs. There is not another firm in the world that has as much data on write-downs as New Constructs.
    We can't give away too much milk for free...
    Jan 9 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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990 Comments
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