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David Trainer

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  • Best And Worst Sector ETFs And Mutual Funds [View article]
    Only if you believe history is always the best indicator of the future.

    Ever heard of the 5-star kiss of death?

    Morningstar's entirely backward-looking star rating system is one of the best examples of how past performance does not do well as predicting future performance.

    Sure, you can *hope* a fund continues to hold good stocks. But the only way to be sure is to check them.
    Jul 16 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best And Worst Sector ETFs And Mutual Funds [View article]
    financialmastery: thank you for your comment.
    Our analytical approaches are very different. You apply technical analytics and stats, which is similar to most fund research since the needed info is easy to get.

    My fund research is bottoms-up fundamental analysis of each ETF/fund holding. I am providing fund research that is more like stock research. That approach is very different from the pure technical analysis you provide.
    Most investors, I think, would prefer to use both types: fundamental and technical.
    Jul 15 07:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best And Worst Sector ETFs And Mutual Funds [View article]
    fix:
    Excellent point, there is no real stock selection for ETFs and mutual funds that only track indices like the S&P 500. But for all other ETFs and mutual funds, stock selection plays a role and investors should asses.
    Jul 13 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell U.S. Steel Before Pensions Sink The Stock [View article]
    I am not saying they will go bankrupt necessarily, but I am saying there is not much hope for equity holders when senior claims on cash flows are so large, especially compared to the cash flows of the business.
    Jun 25 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Security in VirnetX Stock [View article]
    VHCVHCVHC -I am flattered that you still think of me and this article.
    The time to cover was last fall per my last comment.
    Jun 22 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETF Pair Trade: Maximize Profits In The Energy Sector [View article]
    Randy:
    Thank you for your comment.
    There may be overlap in holdings but size of allocations matter more. The bottom line is that VDE allocates more value to attractive-or-better stocks, and, therefore, gets a better rating.
    Jun 20 09:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is S&P Raising Its Outlook On Delta? [View article]
    DanielRB:
    Thank you for your comment/question.
    My comment on the Trainer acquisition are here, my original article on DAL:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jun 11 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is S&P Raising Its Outlook On Delta? [View article]
    Raodyssey:
    Thank you for your comment.

    I see your points. They are good ones too.

    I think they are based on some incorrect premises:
    1. Airline industry has not fully rationalized its issues...only Southwest Airlines has figured out how to run a sustainable airline business

    2. DAL has not been profitable in the past. They are simply robbing pensions to make accounting profits look better since they came out of bankruptcy...just 4 years ago...

    3. The off-balance sheet issues are not speculation...they are reported in the 10-Ks per the links in my article.

    4. My math is pretty simple and straightforward.

    5. DAL operates in many market yes, transatlantic is one of the biggest and most profitable. Reduction in capacity there is not a good sign no matter how you spin it.

    6. DAL has made some key investments. Their terminal in LGA is amazing. When I visited it recently I thought I had departed in the wrong city b.c the terminal was so much nicer than the others

    7. However, that value accrues more to the consumer than DAL. I do not expect they will see great cash returns on those investments. One thing we can take from Southwest Airlines' rapid rise in success and market share is that people prefer cheap fares over traditional airline amenities. Consumers will enjoy the new amenities only as long as they do not have to pay much extra. So...those investments will not translate into enough of a rise in ticket prices to make them profitable.

    8. I did not say Delta would fail - I am saying they will may have to revisit bankruptcy. I think they will make it just as they made it thru bankruptcy the last time. Just as AMR Corp is still flying planes as they go thru bankruptcy.

    9. The problem is that equity holders could lose everything and will probably lose a great deal, at a minimum.
    Jun 9 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is S&P Raising Its Outlook On Delta? [View article]
    WRB747:
    Fair question...I think they will make it just as they made it thru bankruptcy the last time. Just as AMR Corp is still flying planes as they go thru bankruptcy.
    Given the lack of cash flows in the sector, the only way to "make it" is to get bankruptcy courts to cut your pension liabilities, before you can go on.
    That cycle will continue until they get their pension obligations under control.
    My key point is that the equity investors are behind the pensions in the line for cash flows, so prepared to see the stock trade at levels consistent with other companies that go thru bankruptcy.
    Jun 8 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is S&P Raising Its Outlook On Delta? [View article]
    Raodyssey:
    Thank you for your comment.
    You are correct that this article is a follow-up piece on my prior article. I think I make a very good point that S&P's analysis is questionable. They have been wrong before...no?

    Pls tell me where my analysis has any flaws? Do you own DAL? Are you not concerned about the staggering off-balance-sheet liabilities? How did you learn about them?

    Why do you assume I care that Delta did not respond to my questions?
    If anything, it makes them look like they have something to hide. I talked to other companies about their pensions that are completely forthcoming about their pension issues...because they have addressed them publicly and have a plan to address funding gaps.

    Does DAL have a plan to address their pension and off-b/s debt issues? If so, will someone pls share?

    According to my math, DAL will have a hard time covering their off-balance sheet liabilities ESPECIALLY if the economy slows again. If that happens, they are likely headed to bankruptcy again.
    Jun 8 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Delta's Purchase Of An Oil Refinery Makes Sense [View article]
    That works well if DAL does ALL of its refueling in the northeast near Trainer, PA.
    Jun 4 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Delta's Purchase Of An Oil Refinery Makes Sense [View article]
    Hmmmmmm121 - hahah, good points.
    Jun 1 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Delta's Purchase Of An Oil Refinery Makes Sense [View article]
    Nothing like that Hmmmmm121, just keep the refineries in locations closer to crude oil sources such as Houston and many others.
    There is less need these days to have them in the middle of energy no where.
    Jun 1 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Delta's Purchase Of An Oil Refinery Makes Sense [View article]
    Also, we should note that most refiners have been abandoning all the their east-coast properties b/c of the higher cost of transporting crude oil to them. The east coast refineries have a natural cost dis-advantage b/c they are farther from crude oil sources. That is why there are so very few refineries left on the east coast at all.

    So, Delta has its hands full in making this work. Nevertheless, even if it does work, the overall present value of the savings (about $3.4 billion) is a drop in the bucket compared to the enormous off-balance sheet liabilities (debt and underfunded pensions) at $26 billion
    Jun 1 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bail Out Of Delta Before The Stock Crashes [View article]
    I think S&P analysts are not doing their diligence. Delta's liabilities are not declining. They are simply shifting them around. True, reported (on balance-sheet debt) did fall but the rise in off balance-sheet debt and underfunded pension liabilities offsets that. See the numbers in this chart: http://bit.ly/JRMXvZ
    Jun 1 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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