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David Trainer

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  • Danger Zone: NCR Corporation [View article]
    Jeremy Blum:

    The P/E ratio is misleading for two big reasons. Earnings are overstated in that ratio due to the big non-operating pension gains last year, and it doesn't account for the company's high level of debt, which reduces future cash flows available to shareholders. You can see all my calculations for 11% in the DCF model I linked to in the article.
    Jul 31, 2014. 12:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: NCR Corporation [View article]
    MHFive: The vast majority of that growth comes from the acquisition of Digital Insight. Organic growth was just 4%. That just goes along with what I highlighted in the article. NCR's acquisition driven strategy has allowed it to keep buying short-term revenue growth, but it's destroying long-term profitability.
    Jul 30, 2014. 09:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Style Rankings For ETFs, Mutual Funds And Stocks [View article]
    Hardog and hwink29:

    Here's my methodology for how I rate stocks from a scale of Very Dangerous to Very Attracttive:
    Jul 29, 2014. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Stocks To Look At If The Market Crashes [View article]
    Rudester: TUP might be the one on that list that's the closest to being a compelling buy, but I'd still want it to come down a bit before I'd consider it.
    Jul 29, 2014. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Stocks To Look At If The Market Crashes [View article]
    Glad you liked it Tony! Thanks for reading.
    Jul 28, 2014. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Dunkin' Brands Group [View article]
    Thanks! Definitely still bearish on DNKN. Even at this lower valuation the company still needs significantly higher growth than its showing. Nothing I've seen since this article has shaken my belief that DNKN could go as low as $20.
    Jul 24, 2014. 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Angie's List Earnings [View article]
    Just more proof that you can't trust Wall Street analysts. Seeking Alpha contributors have nailed the short case on ANGI, about 10:1 ratio of bearish to bullish articles on here, but somehow it's still a consensus buy amongst analysts. Just goes to show where you can find real diligence.
    Jul 24, 2014. 09:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Angie's List Earnings [View article]
    Glad to see that my call helped make you guys some money. Thanks for reading!
    Jul 24, 2014. 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Stocks With Most Misleading Non-GAAP Earnings [View article]
    The difference is that NOPAT is a comparable, independent metric rather than a number being put forward by the companies themselves. Investors are free to set their own rules for how to value a company, but those rules should be thoroughly grounded in the actual underlying economics of the business, and too often non-GAAP earnings don't meet that standard.

    I included Tesla not because their non-GAAP rules are especially egregious, although the amount of stock compensation expense included is large, but because they're a great example of how a company will exclude expenses but not mention a non-operating, non-cash gain from foreign currency exchange fluctuations.
    Jul 23, 2014. 10:20 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rating Breakdown: Best And Worst ETFs And Mutual Funds By Sector [View article]
    Thanks Hardog!
    Jul 22, 2014. 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sector Rankings For ETFs And Mutual Funds [View article]

    The performance of our Most Attractive and Most Dangerous Stocks portfolios, which are updated monthly with our 20 best and worst Large/Mid and Small Cap stocks, can be seen here:
    Jul 21, 2014. 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sector Rankings For ETFs And Mutual Funds [View article]
    Tony Pow:

    In the past I have made my articles on all sectors available on Seeking Alpha but going forward most of those articles will only be available to New Constructs subscribers.
    Jul 18, 2014. 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Hawaiian Electric Company [View article]
    Charlie Ponzi:

    Thanks for reading and commenting. I'm not overly optimistic about HE's initiative to purchase solar and wind generation, as its previous attempts to harness renewable energy have not been particularly successful. As I mention in the article, any significant investment in renewables that the company attempts should send free cash flow even further negative and make it harder to sustain the dividend.

    HE's plans to import CNG/LNG might reduce costs somewhat, but I can't see that being enough to drive 6% NOPAT growth for 12 years.
    Jul 16, 2014. 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recovering PC Market Makes Intel Still A Buy [View article]
    Gary Schurman:

    The market has been too focused on mobile and too pessimistic about the future of INTC's PC and data center businesses. The cash flow that these segments generate is enough to support a $41/share valuation, and I base my valuation of the company off of what the cash flow shows rather than what the market thinks today.
    Jul 3, 2014. 12:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recovering PC Market Makes Intel Still A Buy [View article]

    Intel could potentially enter other markets, but we don't know for sure what those markets will be or how Intel's endeavors will turn out. I don't pretend to know what Intel will look like in 10 years, so I'd rather model conservatively than be too ambitious. The increase in Intel's stock valuation and its struggles to gain traction in mobile make it less attractive at this particular moment. If it shows signs of significant growth in another market, that will change the investment outlook.
    Jul 3, 2014. 12:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment