Seeking Alpha

David Trainer

View as an RSS Feed
View David Trainer's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Danger Zone: Ashland [View article]
    I may take a short position in ASH in the next 24-72 hours.
    Jan 29 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Ashland [View article]
    Well put
    Jan 29 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best And Worst ETFs, Mutual Funds, And Industrials Sector [View article]
    Pony01:

    Thanks for reading and commenting. AYR could definitely be an acquisition target. I don't know what the company's plans are, but at this price it has upside either way.
    Jan 29 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best And Worst ETFs, Mutual Funds, And Key Holdings: Energy Sector [View article]
    Bahamas1:

    Thanks for reading and commenting.

    David Trainer
    Jan 27 12:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Declining Advantage Is Undeniable [View article]
    MWinMD,
    The focus of valuation is on future cash flows.
    The reason that AAPL trades at such a low PE now is that the market is already forecasting a major decline in profits. My thesis is simply that the majority of investors have not yet accepted how much lower they will go.

    My reference to ROIC, which is, categorically, the best way to measure profitability (and if you do not agree just ask Warren Buffett or any other successful value investors) to point out the implications of the current valuation for future cash flows.
    Expectations are still way too high.

    Details behind all of my assumptions and models are in my original article, which you can see here:
    http://bit.ly/1fgwHRC

    Pls review my models as well as the comments on the article and let me know if you see anything missing.
    Jan 26 07:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Declining Advantage Is Undeniable [View article]
    docnaka:
    Thank you for your comment and your accounting insights.

    All those items, and many more, are covered in my analysis. Details behind all of my assumptions and models are in my original article, which you can see here:
    http://bit.ly/1fgwHRC

    Pls review my models as well as the comments on the article and let me know if you see anything missing.
    Jan 26 06:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best And Worst ETFs, Mutual Funds, And Key Holdings: Energy Sector [View article]
    bzl14:

    Thanks for reading and commenting. My ETF ratings are based solely on the holdings and costs of an ETF and do not take into account past performance. In the case of IYE and XLE, the holdings of IYE get a slightly better rating than those of XLE. 37% of XLE's holdings get my Dangerous-or-worse rating while only 31% of IYE's are Dangerous-or-worse. That difference in holdings is enough to make up for the higher costs of IYE.

    My articles are intended for long-term investors rather than traders, so volume is not as important. I still recommend investors avoid funds with less than $100 million in assets to ensure sufficient liquidity, but IYE easily surpasses that mark.

    David Trainer
    Jan 25 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Declining Advantage Is Undeniable [View article]
    six-oh:

    I write about a lot of different stocks, so I can't take a position on every single stock I write about. I'm bearish long-term on AAPL but I believe there may be significant volatility in the short-term, so I'm choosing simply to stay away from the stock for now and recommending that others do the same. This does not mean that I don't have conviction in my call or that I won't ever short in the future.

    David Trainer
    Jan 24 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Declining Advantage Is Undeniable [View article]
    David King:

    I think your comparison to the Patriots is an apt one, except that Steve Jobs was Apple's Tom Brady. Without Jobs relentless drive, I have trouble believing that Apple will be able to create and dominate new product segments in the future. When Brady was injured a few years ago, the Patriots were still a decent team, but they didn't make the playoffs. Without Jobs, I think Apple is still a good company, but not one that can dominate a market like it has in the past.
    Jan 24 04:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Declining Advantage Is Undeniable [View article]
    Jack Staub:

    Dividends are not factored into my ROIC calculation. I calculate ROIC as NOPAT/Invested Capital.

    You can see how how I calculate NOPAT here: http://bit.ly/16AuHRs

    And Invested Capital here: http://bit.ly/102dSHW

    AAPL's declining ROIC came from a big increase in Invested Capital in 2012 and a decrease in NOPAT in 2013.

    David Trainer
    Jan 24 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Declining Advantage Is Undeniable [View article]
    flux8:

    While I do believe AAPL will fall sharply, I don't have any special insight into the timing. AAPL is a volatile stock in a bull market. No matter how confident I am in my analysis, shorting it is a risky proposition.

    David Trainer
    Jan 24 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Declining Advantage Is Undeniable [View article]
    szeducate:

    On what grounds do you believe that Apple will dominate in new fields it enters? Past successes do not guarantee it will achieve the same results in the future.

    David Trainer
    Jan 24 12:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Declining Advantage Is Undeniable [View article]
    Applocrat:

    My point is that new competition hurts an existing product. Apple's new 5s and 5c hurt sales of Samsung's products in the last quarter, but the growth of competition from Samsung and others has seen Apple's NOPAT decline by 12% in 2013 and its NOPAT margin contract from 27% to 21%.

    David Trainer
    Jan 24 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Declining Advantage Is Undeniable [View article]
    Thanks Michael
    Jan 24 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Declining Advantage Is Undeniable [View article]
    genomegk:

    You're making my point for me. Increased competition decreases profits. The release of the new iPhone hurt Samsung's numbers, but increased competition from Samsung and others has brought down Apple's ROIC for the past two years.

    David Trainer
    Jan 24 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
857 Comments
227 Likes