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David Trainer  

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  • The Long Overdue Crash In Whole Foods [View article]

    I'm not writing to brag about my past call, and I acknowledge that WFM has still outperformed the S&P 500 since that call. The purpose of this article is to point out that you might make money on overvalued momentum stocks for a while, but eventually the crash will come.
    Aug 5, 2014. 12:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Overdue Crash In Whole Foods [View article]
    It consists of operating leases, primarily on the company's stores. Those leases can be found in their 10-K:

    Their total future value is $7.4 billion, but discounted to present value they are worth roughly $5 billion.
    Aug 5, 2014. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Overdue Crash In Whole Foods [View article]
    Buyandhold 2012: WFM is definitely still expensive. The PE ratio actually understated how expensive it is because it ignores the $5 billion in liabilities the company has in the form of off-balance sheet debt.

    Surprised to hear the news today that Icahn might be considering involvement.
    Aug 5, 2014. 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best And Worst ETFs, Mutual Funds, And Key Holdings: Large Cap Growth Style [View article]
    Hardog: Thanks for reading and commenting. Glad you find my research helpful.
    Aug 3, 2014. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: NCR Corporation [View article]

    -I didn't say people will stop shopping in stores. The growing trend is less shopping in stores and more shopping online though. I don't think anyone would really debate that point.

    -Like retail, banking is moving more online and less on-site.

    -Debt is not inherently bad. If the businesses that NCR was buying were higher yielding, as you say, it would be a good move to take on low interest debt to buy them. However, these businesses are not higher yielding, as evidenced by NCR's declining ROIC. The amount of future cash flows that the debt will consume is greater than the present value of the cash flows those acquisitions will generate.

    -Both the market penetration and operating cash flow growth are due to these acquisitions. Free cash flow is negative and organic growth is in the low single digits.

    -Accounting earnings are not an accurate depiction of a company's operating performance, and estimates are often wrong.

    -Past price performance is not a guarantee of future returns.
    Jul 31, 2014. 01:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: NCR Corporation [View article]
    Jeremy Blum:

    The P/E ratio is misleading for two big reasons. Earnings are overstated in that ratio due to the big non-operating pension gains last year, and it doesn't account for the company's high level of debt, which reduces future cash flows available to shareholders. You can see all my calculations for 11% in the DCF model I linked to in the article.
    Jul 31, 2014. 12:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: NCR Corporation [View article]
    MHFive: The vast majority of that growth comes from the acquisition of Digital Insight. Organic growth was just 4%. That just goes along with what I highlighted in the article. NCR's acquisition driven strategy has allowed it to keep buying short-term revenue growth, but it's destroying long-term profitability.
    Jul 30, 2014. 09:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Style Rankings For ETFs, Mutual Funds And Stocks [View article]
    Hardog and hwink29:

    Here's my methodology for how I rate stocks from a scale of Very Dangerous to Very Attracttive:
    Jul 29, 2014. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Stocks To Look At If The Market Crashes [View article]
    Rudester: TUP might be the one on that list that's the closest to being a compelling buy, but I'd still want it to come down a bit before I'd consider it.
    Jul 29, 2014. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Stocks To Look At If The Market Crashes [View article]
    Glad you liked it Tony! Thanks for reading.
    Jul 28, 2014. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Dunkin' Brands Group [View article]
    Thanks! Definitely still bearish on DNKN. Even at this lower valuation the company still needs significantly higher growth than its showing. Nothing I've seen since this article has shaken my belief that DNKN could go as low as $20.
    Jul 24, 2014. 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Angie's List Earnings [View article]
    Just more proof that you can't trust Wall Street analysts. Seeking Alpha contributors have nailed the short case on ANGI, about 10:1 ratio of bearish to bullish articles on here, but somehow it's still a consensus buy amongst analysts. Just goes to show where you can find real diligence.
    Jul 24, 2014. 09:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Angie's List Earnings [View article]
    Glad to see that my call helped make you guys some money. Thanks for reading!
    Jul 24, 2014. 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Stocks With Most Misleading Non-GAAP Earnings [View article]
    The difference is that NOPAT is a comparable, independent metric rather than a number being put forward by the companies themselves. Investors are free to set their own rules for how to value a company, but those rules should be thoroughly grounded in the actual underlying economics of the business, and too often non-GAAP earnings don't meet that standard.

    I included Tesla not because their non-GAAP rules are especially egregious, although the amount of stock compensation expense included is large, but because they're a great example of how a company will exclude expenses but not mention a non-operating, non-cash gain from foreign currency exchange fluctuations.
    Jul 23, 2014. 10:20 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rating Breakdown: Best And Worst ETFs And Mutual Funds By Sector [View article]
    Thanks Hardog!
    Jul 22, 2014. 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment