Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

David Trainer  

View David Trainer's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Sector Rankings For ETFs And Mutual Funds [View article]

    The performance of our Most Attractive and Most Dangerous Stocks portfolios, which are updated monthly with our 20 best and worst Large/Mid and Small Cap stocks, can be seen here:
    Jul 21, 2014. 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sector Rankings For ETFs And Mutual Funds [View article]
    Tony Pow:

    In the past I have made my articles on all sectors available on Seeking Alpha but going forward most of those articles will only be available to New Constructs subscribers.
    Jul 18, 2014. 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Hawaiian Electric Company [View article]
    Charlie Ponzi:

    Thanks for reading and commenting. I'm not overly optimistic about HE's initiative to purchase solar and wind generation, as its previous attempts to harness renewable energy have not been particularly successful. As I mention in the article, any significant investment in renewables that the company attempts should send free cash flow even further negative and make it harder to sustain the dividend.

    HE's plans to import CNG/LNG might reduce costs somewhat, but I can't see that being enough to drive 6% NOPAT growth for 12 years.
    Jul 16, 2014. 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recovering PC Market Makes Intel Still A Buy [View article]
    Gary Schurman:

    The market has been too focused on mobile and too pessimistic about the future of INTC's PC and data center businesses. The cash flow that these segments generate is enough to support a $41/share valuation, and I base my valuation of the company off of what the cash flow shows rather than what the market thinks today.
    Jul 3, 2014. 12:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recovering PC Market Makes Intel Still A Buy [View article]

    Intel could potentially enter other markets, but we don't know for sure what those markets will be or how Intel's endeavors will turn out. I don't pretend to know what Intel will look like in 10 years, so I'd rather model conservatively than be too ambitious. The increase in Intel's stock valuation and its struggles to gain traction in mobile make it less attractive at this particular moment. If it shows signs of significant growth in another market, that will change the investment outlook.
    Jul 3, 2014. 12:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cutting Through Valeant's Story [View article]

    Great comment. Buying up companies is a less efficient strategy than developing new products yourself. Bristol-Myers Squibb at an ROIC of 10% and Perrigo Company at an ROIC of 13% also create significantly more value than VRX. In fact, the only pharma with a market cap over $10 billion with a lower ROIC than VRX that I could find was Actavis.
    Jul 2, 2014. 09:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: DreamWorks Animation [View article]

    I don't know where you're getting your data on STQAX's holdings from, but the data I get from Lipper showed that the fund had a position in DWA at the time.
    Jun 30, 2014. 05:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An ETF Pair Trade For The Health Care Sector: XLV Vs. PTH [View article]

    My ratings are forward looking and based off of holdings and costs. Past performance does not factor into my ETF ratings at all, as it is not a reliable indicator of future results.
    Jun 20, 2014. 02:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Wonderful Companies That Are Bad Stocks [View article]

    CA still earns my Attractive rating. The stock is cheap at a PEBV of 0.9 and the company's ROIC of 13% is strong. That being said, the continued revenue decline is troubling and it's unclear when the business is going to level out. For that reason I'm only tentatively optimistic about CA rather than full on enthusiastic.
    Jun 19, 2014. 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: United States Cellular [View article]

    Thanks for reading and commenting. The table is mainly illustrative of the fact that the sector is highly competitive and of the headwinds USM faces should it choose to enter new markets, as well as in its current ones. USM's margins, which have declined for several years, leave little room for the company to compete on price with the 4 national carriers, which are in virtually every market at this point.

    As far as the Airadigm analysis goes: It is true that USM already operates in Wisconsin and Iowa, but the purchase also has USM entering the Minnesota and Michigan markets, where it currently has little to no coverage. Furthermore, I am curious how these rural customers will be taking advantage of the company's planned focus on higher ARPU smartphone and data plans.

    Lastly, I do see an acquisition as likely at some point in the future, as the practice is common in this sector — though I think the stock is trading at a premium because of the 2013 earnings issue. But we have not heard anything of an acquisition yet and I suggest steering clear of the stock until we see some news of this (which an uptick in insider buying might indicate).

    Again, thanks for commenting.
    Jun 19, 2014. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Wonderful Companies That Are Bad Stocks [View article]

    That's the thing about momentum stocks. It doesn't matter... right up until the point that it matters a great deal.
    Jun 19, 2014. 11:34 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Warnings For Those Seeking Demand Growth Stories [View article]
    Great article. Too often investors focus on the growth and demand for a product without analyzing the competitive landscape on the supply side. A great example currently is the SaaS space, where investors are discounting the risks that CRM, N, and WDAY face both from smaller companies and larger companies like SAP and ORCL moving in on their turf.

    It's economics 101 that any industry experiencing above average profits without significant barriers to entry will face an influx of new firms. I called Ventas as a short here on Seeking Alpha last March for just that reason.

    What's your thesis behind holding VTR long now?
    Jun 17, 2014. 05:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PetSmart: Your Portfolio's Best Friend [View article]
    Lobo74: Great comment. Veterinary services is another big value added service that enhances PetSmart's moat. As far as online goes, this has been an area where PETM has struggled in the past. They're making the right noises about improving their online presence now, but it remains to be seen how effective they can be on that front.

    I hadn't considered the possibility of an acquisition to bolster their online presence. Assuming it would cost roughly $300 million to acquire PETS, PETM would earn about a 6% ROIC on that deal based on current NOPAT. Given the opportunity for PETM to leverage its brand and exclusive products on the acquired sites, as well as the increased scale, there would probably be some significant synergies, which would push the ROIC on the deal higher.

    That being said, I think PETM has the capability to develop their own successful online presence without resorting to an acquisition, but if that fails PETS could be an interesting option.
    Jun 17, 2014. 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PetSmart: Your Portfolio's Best Friend [View article]
    farhan0179: The company's pet grooming services should continue to grow roughly in line with the overall pet care market. Pet grooming is an important service for PETM because it's something online vendors can't replicate and it gets customers into the stores.
    Jun 17, 2014. 03:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ROIC: Definition And Formulae For Return On Invested Capital [View instapost]
    rhorn az: It depends on what the company does with this retained earnings. If they are held as cash or cash equivalents then we exclude them from invested capital as the company is not actively using that money to generate revenue. Retained earnings would only be factored into our invested capital calculation once the company actually invests them into its business.
    Jun 17, 2014. 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment