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David Trainer  

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  • Danger Zone: Glu Mobile [View article]
    SoundView Technology Group:

    Glu may be pursuing this strategy, but there's not a great deal of evidence out there that it's going to work. Even Dino Hunter hasn't been able to hit the same heights in terms of revenue and users as Deer Hunter.

    If Glu can build on the KK platform to release equally popular games, I might reconsider my position. However, I think it's highly unlikely that they'll manage to achieve repeatable success with that strategy.

    Points 1 and 3 factor into why I believe in point 2. Branding is less important in mobile gaming because the investment, in terms of both time and money, for the consumer is much lower than for a console game. Consumers are more willing to experiment with unfamiliar games, and the low barriers to entry mean there are countless developers out there to give them options.

    There hasn't been a mobile game developer yet that has managed to consistently put out a large number of popular, profitable games. Until someone does that, I remain skeptical that GLUU's strategy can work.
    Sep 8, 2014. 10:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Footnotes Matter [View article]

    You'd be surprised at how many reports I see from those who are theoretically the "smart eyes" that make reference to unadjusted price to earnings ratios and other reported numbers without bothering to account for significant non-operating items in the footnotes.

    However, I agree with you that for most investors, reading the full 10-K can be more work than its worth. That's why at New Constructs we developed a patented program and research system that allows our team of analysts to read and analyze over 3,000 10-K's a year.

    Our goal is to make this level of diligence available to the average investor who doesn't have the time or resources of the so called "smart money".
    Sep 5, 2014. 01:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer Staples Sector [View article]

    The reason the percentages for the mutual funds in figure 2 don't add up to 100% is that these funds often hold significant amounts of cash. Additionally, they sometimes hold a small percentage of stocks that I don't have ratings for, and so those don't show up in Figure 2 either.
    Sep 4, 2014. 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best And Worst Information Technology Sector ETFs, Mutual Funds, And Key Holdings [View article]

    SWIR's positive earnings were on a non-GAAP basis. I don't put any stock in non-GAAP numbers, as they are generally a tool for companies to inflate their reported earnings. I also don''t give much weight to one or two quarters of data. SWIR has had a negative operating profit for the past three years. That's what I mean when I say it has no track record of recent profitability.
    Sep 4, 2014. 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer Staples Sector [View article]

    XLP is consistently one of my highest ranked ETFs. Owns great companies, has low costs, and its holdings tend to be reasonably valued.
    Sep 2, 2014. 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best And Worst ETFs, Mutual Funds And Key Holdings: Consumer Discretionary Sector [View article]

    FDSTX still earns my Very Attractive rating. Its high fees are unfortunate, but it has great holdings.
    Aug 26, 2014. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Companies With Strong Dividend Yields Suitable For Defensive Investors [View article]
    Like DE and INTC a lot, but I'm bearish on OLN. EPS is misleading due to $25 million in non-recurring income in 3Q13. In addition, their business is facing some major headwinds in the form of declining demand for ammunition and falling prices in the chlor-alkali segment.
    Aug 25, 2014. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Hope Of A Turnaround At Angie's List? [View article]
    One really interesting statistic to note is marketing cost per paid membership acquired. For the most recent quarter ANGI spent $90 on marketing per new member, up 13% from a year ago.

    ANGI is having to work harder and harder to keep adding new members.
    Aug 21, 2014. 02:32 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best And Worst Mid Cap Value Style ETFs, Mutual Funds, And Key Holdings [View article]
    dimickdavid: Where do you see IVOV having more than $200M in assets? I see $86M.
    Aug 21, 2014. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Avoid The Worst Style ETFs [View article]
    Cal Boomer:
    Thanks for your comment.
    I appreciate your desire to see more info. It is natural to want to get all the answers in one place.
    Figures 1 and 2 provide lots of excellent information that would take you months to develop on your own.

    I am glad you would like to see more. Reality is that Seeking Alpha would not exist if not for high-quality firms providing research. High-quality firms cannot exist without getting paid.

    In the end, you are getting more than what you pay for from this article and many others. I think you are getting a very, very good deal.
    Aug 21, 2014. 09:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Find The Best Style ETFs [View article]
    David at Imperial Beach:

    P/E ratios are a very unreliable measure of value, and just measuring the top holdings can lead investors to miss important qualities of the aggregate smaller holdings. That's why I calculate the average price to economic book value of all the holdings in the ETF, which quantifies the total cash flow growth implied by the valuations of all the holdings.
    Aug 15, 2014. 10:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Newell Rubbermaid [View article]

    Congrats on a great pick. NWL has definitely done well for shareholders over the past few years, but that doesn't mean it will deliver good returns going forward. Now might be a good time to take profits.
    Aug 14, 2014. 02:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Newell Rubbermaid [View article]
    Deep Value 1634:

    NWL has $1.8 billion in accumulated asset write-downs that I add back to invested capital. Companies should be held accountable for all the money they've invested in the business, even if they've written those assets down as worthless.

    A smaller adjustment I make is to add $370 million due to the present value of operating leases. These leases are kept off the balance sheet, but they represent assets that are currently being used in the business, and they should be included in invested capital.

    You can see how I adjust reported financials to get NOPAT and Invested Capital, the numerator and denominator of ROIC, here:
    Aug 14, 2014. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Microsoft Bulls Have A Convincing Case? [View article]
    Praveen Chawla:

    You need both. As Warren Buffet said "It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price." I'd rather invest in a company with a high and rising ROIC and a reasonable valuation than one with a low and declining ROIC and a cheap valuation.
    Aug 7, 2014. 04:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Microsoft Bulls Have A Convincing Case? [View article]
    Praveen Chawla:

    ROIC is not what the previous generation of investors paid, it's the cash that the company is currently generating on the capital invested in its business. That's a very different number from enterprise value, which is the expected value of future cash flows.

    MSFT has a $280 billion EV, but it only actually has $45 billion in invested capital. FCF/EV gives you some insight into the valuation of the company, but ROIC is a better indicator of its operating profitability and efficiency.
    Aug 7, 2014. 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment