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David Trainer

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  • No Progress From Amazon In 2013 [View article]
    Jeffry Chmielewski:

    That's a good point about the off-balance sheet liabilities. They currently have about $4.2 billion in off-balance sheet debt due to operating leases.
    Feb 10 09:25 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inventory Risks Loom For Apple [View article]
    Great work. Objectively presented.

    Truly, the value of Seeking Alpha declines every time people make wacko comments, esp those that make personal attacks on authors who make fact-based arguments.
    The obvious bias and refusal to recognize fair do they imagine anyone takes them seriously.
    Feb 22 09:15 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Progress From Amazon In 2013 [View article]

    It takes more than revenue growth to create value for shareholders, and Amazon took a step back last year in terms of margins and ROIC. In addition, the revenue growth has slowed down. Amazon has absolutely been a disruptive company, but the growth expectations embedded in its stock price are simply too high.
    Feb 10 12:14 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone For This Week: Apple [View article]
    ISRG buyer:
    Thank you for your comment.
    I do not short story stocks. Too much momentum and retail money in the stock means it an more irrationally for long periods of time.

    The goal of New Constructs' research is to further the knowledge of all investors so the market allocates capital more efficiently, which leads to a higher standard of living for our society.
    May 15 12:08 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Battery Technologies: An Egregious Chinese RTO [View article]
    It is true, you would be surprised how little real diligence, like what is described in this article, gets done on investments by institutions. That is why I created my own research firm to make going thru financial filings and footnotes an efficient process.

    I have marketed my research, which specializes in delivering info from footnotes, to 1000s of professional investors, all of who claimed to be value investors or analytically rigorous. And about 90% of them argued that the Notes to the Financial Statements did not matter. Real, good diligence is rare - and a big advantage to those willing to put in the time.
    Mar 30 12:03 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Comcast [View article]
    chopchop0: The NBCUniversal segment, while it is growing, cannot offset the competitive pressures in the internet and cable business. NBCUniversal made up 23% of Comcast's operating income last year. Growth in just that segment is not going to meet the expectations the market has for Comcast.
    Feb 28 10:33 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone For This Week: Apple [View article]
    Michael Blair,

    Thank you for your comment.

    I could not have said it better my self.
    May 15 11:53 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone 4/23/2013: Sears Holdings [View article]
    Your tendency for hyperbole suggests you are a little biased abut this stock. Your defensiveness when questioned and zeal for all things/decisions Lampert suggest bias too.

    Anyway, just saying your credibility is declining with each comments. Just my opinion,
    Apr 27 12:02 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RIM's Stock Offers a Free Option on a Comeback [View article]
    If there was a product that deserved to die, it was Palm.
    If a company (Hewlett-Packard) was willing to buy Palm (and at a premium), then someone will be willing to buy RIMM - long before it "dies". Potential buyers: Nokia and Microsoft could make excellent use of RIMM's substantial assets.
    Jun 14 04:31 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Too Cheap to Pass Up Again [View article]
    Once INTC decides to enter new markets, they can do so with force and can afford to wait until the market is proven and profitable. It is called the "fast follower" strategy and is almost always more profitable than being a market pioneer/innovator who is forced to spend a lot more on R&D to blaze the trail to market viability. INTC's position as an industry leader (and with $26bn in cash) gives it the distinct advantage of being able to use the "fast follower" strategy. The market is assigning way too little value to INTC's option to use the fast follower strategy.
    Mar 16 01:22 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Even More Dangerous [View article]

    Amazon Prime, Hulu, some new service that hasn't been created yet. Plus, even if they stay with Netflix, the rising content costs will keep margins down.
    Apr 4 04:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It May Be Apple Harvest Time [View article]
    Mr. Blair:
    Great article. it complements my analysis/article very well (

    Your focus on the lack of momentum and hard stats behind the decline in Apple's competitiveness is right on.

    I would only add that there is significant risk of major earnings decline as Apple loses the ability to exact premium margins. I think the fashion tide could turn against Apple as quickly as it turned with them a few years ago.

    People tend to underestimate how quickly a very popular stock can fall out of favor once its products lose their luster...think Blackberry and Dell. Both those firms once had high flying stocks and returns on invested capital - but once they lost their innovative edge, they crashed quickly.

    Great article and I admire the guts it takes to write anything that the Apple Army might disagree with.
    Sep 25 12:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's What Was Really Wrong With REITs, And Still Is [View article]
    I definitely agree with your argument. Low bond yields over the past few years led a lot of yield-seeking investors to pump money into REITs, pushing the valuations well beyond their fundamentals. I wrote an article with a similar, though more negative, argument on REITs last week:
    Jul 1 05:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone For This Week: Apple [View article]
    You are quite the theorist.

    I liquidated my fund's holdings of AAPL in Jan of 2013.
    I am not short.
    May 15 06:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone For This Week: Apple [View article]
    Thank you for your comment.

    I disagree and see the "ecosystem" as a disadvantage b/c opensource is better. The lack of ile sharing capabilities within the AAPL system is maddening. Those are my pics, my movies and I should be able to post or share then easily where ever I want.

    The opensource model is the way most everything is going. Closed systems are doomed.
    May 15 11:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment