Seeking Alpha

David Trainer

 
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  • Amazon's New Smartphone Spells Trouble For Apple [View article]
    appl believer:

    I'm actually bearish on Amazon as well due to the company's razor thin margins, which is part of why I think an Amazon smartphone could be dangerous to Apple. Amazon can spend as much on production as Apple and sell for much cheaper because it's willing to accept lower margins.
    Jun 9, 2014. 12:22 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's New Smartphone Spells Trouble For Apple [View article]
    MichaelGrove:

    Apple's triple digit ROIC is exactly why I'm bearish on the company. Such a high ROIC is unsustainable in the long-term. Apple has delivered great innovation and incredible products, but the market is catching up, and Apple can't continue to earn such a high ROIC in the future unless it delivers up new products as innovative as the iPhone and iPad, which I'm not confident they will do.
    Jun 9, 2014. 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Inventory Risks Loom For Apple [View article]
    Michael:
    Great work. Objectively presented.

    Truly, the value of Seeking Alpha declines every time people make wacko comments, esp those that make personal attacks on authors who make fact-based arguments.
    The obvious bias and refusal to recognize fair logic...how do they imagine anyone takes them seriously.
    Feb 22, 2014. 09:15 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Declining Advantage Is Undeniable [View article]
    MWinMD,
    The focus of valuation is on future cash flows.
    The reason that AAPL trades at such a low PE now is that the market is already forecasting a major decline in profits. My thesis is simply that the majority of investors have not yet accepted how much lower they will go.

    My reference to ROIC, which is, categorically, the best way to measure profitability (and if you do not agree just ask Warren Buffett or any other successful value investors) to point out the implications of the current valuation for future cash flows.
    Expectations are still way too high.

    Details behind all of my assumptions and models are in my original article, which you can see here:
    http://bit.ly/1fgwHRC

    Pls review my models as well as the comments on the article and let me know if you see anything missing.
    Jan 26, 2014. 07:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Declining Advantage Is Undeniable [View article]
    docnaka:
    Thank you for your comment and your accounting insights.

    All those items, and many more, are covered in my analysis. Details behind all of my assumptions and models are in my original article, which you can see here:
    http://bit.ly/1fgwHRC

    Pls review my models as well as the comments on the article and let me know if you see anything missing.
    Jan 26, 2014. 06:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Declining Advantage Is Undeniable [View article]
    six-oh:

    I write about a lot of different stocks, so I can't take a position on every single stock I write about. I'm bearish long-term on AAPL but I believe there may be significant volatility in the short-term, so I'm choosing simply to stay away from the stock for now and recommending that others do the same. This does not mean that I don't have conviction in my call or that I won't ever short in the future.

    David Trainer
    Jan 24, 2014. 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Declining Advantage Is Undeniable [View article]
    David King:

    I think your comparison to the Patriots is an apt one, except that Steve Jobs was Apple's Tom Brady. Without Jobs relentless drive, I have trouble believing that Apple will be able to create and dominate new product segments in the future. When Brady was injured a few years ago, the Patriots were still a decent team, but they didn't make the playoffs. Without Jobs, I think Apple is still a good company, but not one that can dominate a market like it has in the past.
    Jan 24, 2014. 04:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Declining Advantage Is Undeniable [View article]
    Jack Staub:

    Dividends are not factored into my ROIC calculation. I calculate ROIC as NOPAT/Invested Capital.

    You can see how how I calculate NOPAT here: http://bit.ly/16AuHRs

    And Invested Capital here: http://bit.ly/102dSHW

    AAPL's declining ROIC came from a big increase in Invested Capital in 2012 and a decrease in NOPAT in 2013.

    David Trainer
    Jan 24, 2014. 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Declining Advantage Is Undeniable [View article]
    flux8:

    While I do believe AAPL will fall sharply, I don't have any special insight into the timing. AAPL is a volatile stock in a bull market. No matter how confident I am in my analysis, shorting it is a risky proposition.

    David Trainer
    Jan 24, 2014. 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Declining Advantage Is Undeniable [View article]
    szeducate:

    On what grounds do you believe that Apple will dominate in new fields it enters? Past successes do not guarantee it will achieve the same results in the future.

    David Trainer
    Jan 24, 2014. 12:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Declining Advantage Is Undeniable [View article]
    Applocrat:

    My point is that new competition hurts an existing product. Apple's new 5s and 5c hurt sales of Samsung's products in the last quarter, but the growth of competition from Samsung and others has seen Apple's NOPAT decline by 12% in 2013 and its NOPAT margin contract from 27% to 21%.

    David Trainer
    Jan 24, 2014. 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Declining Advantage Is Undeniable [View article]
    Thanks Michael
    Jan 24, 2014. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Declining Advantage Is Undeniable [View article]
    genomegk:

    You're making my point for me. Increased competition decreases profits. The release of the new iPhone hurt Samsung's numbers, but increased competition from Samsung and others has brought down Apple's ROIC for the past two years.

    David Trainer
    Jan 24, 2014. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Declining Advantage Is Undeniable [View article]
    NWCats404:

    I in fact did write a bearish article on Apple about 8 months ago:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I've been periodically writing updates on that thesis like this one when new information comes out, such as the NYT report and the survey from Forrester Research.

    David Trainer
    Jan 24, 2014. 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Declining Advantage Is Undeniable [View article]
    bpertum:

    You can still make the argument that Apple has superior quality, but there are many people out there who would disagree with you:

    http://on.mktw.net/M41XJn

    It's a matter of taste now between Apple and its competitors. I don't mean to say that the overall quality of Apple products has declined. The company still makes fantastic products. However, its competitors are making some great products as well. There's certainly no way you can make the argument that Apple's competitive advantage now is as great as it was when the iPhone or the iPad first came out.

    David Trainer
    Jan 24, 2014. 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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