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David Tsao

 
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  • Is Canada’s Housing Market Going Bust? [View article]
    This has been a concernce since late last year. It wasn't until 2010 rolled around did the Bank of Canada take action. You're starting to see the results in the numbers now.

    Toronto should continue to soften, but Vancouver is somewhat of an anomaly. The average selling price of a home in Vancouver will not depreciate that much. It has geographic advantages similar to San Francisco and NYC. There simply isn't any land.

    In any case, I exited EWC for this very reason as housing is one of the key underpinnings of stability. www.tengrandchicago.co...
    Jul 7 09:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Bought Joe's Jeans [View article]
    Douglas,

    Thanks for the analysis. Do you know what was up with their Q4 adjustment in tax reserves, the "valuation allowance" that was released? Their effective income tax rate jumped to a whopping 48% this past quarter which I believe had to do with goodwill/intangible assets. I'm trying to figure out if this is just a one time occurrence. Their latest quarterly filing also mentioned about federal/state tax issues that still haven't been resolved... somewhat concerning.

    (Disclosure: I own JOEZ)
    May 25 11:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AEI: Why Can't We Be More Like Canada? [View article]
    Great comparison. What is your take on Jim Flaherty's recent moves to settle the housing market down? Some of the problems that hurt the US system are starting to show up in Canadian housing.
    Mar 1 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iShares MSCI Canada: Reasons to Be Optimistic About the Great White North [View article]
    "In a Re/Max Market Trends survey of 16 markets in Canada, fears about rising interest rates and new lending rules have lured new homebuyers out earlier than usual." -- This is a short term boost. You need to look at the correction that will occur in real estate after the rules kick in. The debt/income ratio is now approaching that of US consumers right before the crisis hit. The Canadian banking system has more checks/balances in place, but they aren't immune to a weakening consumer.
    Feb 25 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Heating Up in Canada [View article]
    Another post by the Globe and Mail. www.theglobeandmail.co.../
    Feb 8 10:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Heating Up in Canada [View article]
    I don't know if this is insightful as I have not done extensive research. Hence I don't know what the premium should be. I've lived in both Toronto, Chicago, and New York... and although I'm not a real estate guru, I know from personal experience what a typical home should go for in these major metro areas relative to the industry/job/local economic prospects within a city and schools within the area. I was just up in Toronto for the holidays and took a look at some of the listings for homes in the norther suburbs (Richmond Hill, Scarborough) and out west (Mississauga) and some of the asking prices for a typical 4 bedroom detached were well over 500K... some homes priced at $750k. That is not sustainable considering the wider economic factors. Canada, from it's currency and economic growth is driven by its commodity strength. The housing market is going gang busters assuming that global demand for commodities and defensive plays against the USD will continue forever.

    If the Government of Canada takes action, there will be a correction. If they don't, the market will self-correct itself b/c you can not continue price people out of housing market forever. It comes down to basic economics which is why I exited my EWC position today.
    Feb 8 06:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Three Reasons Why Apple Competitors Are Scared [View article]
    To say that the analysts have no clue is a bit aggressive don't you think? The company has done exceptionally well on the earnings side, and only good things to come if this tablet is everything the hype says it is going to be. However, all good things level off. Incumbents don't stay in place forever (just ask Microsoft). I've owned Apple stock for a few years now, but the rapid rise in valuation and media hype is making me nervous, not to mention my lack of confidence is Tim Cook's visionary capabilities. He isn't Steve Jobs, and while there is a growing ecosystem in Apple's products, the visionary thinking rests solely on Steve Jobs. That in my opinion is the biggest risk for the company's future growth prospects. There isn't much attention these days around the company's succession planning efforts. It's all around the Tablet.

    Long: AAPL
    Jan 8 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Garmin: A Tech Stock Value Pick [View article]
    Nice Analysis Jacob,

    The trailing 5 year margin averages won't last unless Garmin comes out with new products, not just updated models of current devices. You have to assume margin erosion considering the competition and innovation these technology companies will bring to hand held devices. Google Maps splashing entry onto the next generation of Droid phones won't help either. Although mobile isn't Google's moat, the marginal cost of distribution for Google to push their maps service to Droid phones is extremely low. Google Maps deployment to mobile devices is not meant to generate returns from that program alone. They are setting the stage to collect geo-location data of mobile users to help further their AdWords cash cow. Give these services away for free to generate revenue somewhere else. Watch out for Google's developments after their recent AdMob acquisition. With tight integration into the mobile ad market and geo-location data collection, you have a brand new potent mix for advertisers to buy keywords.

    Given that, your analysis is still very intriguing that I'm going to dig into GRMN a little deeper. I just wouldn't dismiss Google's efforts so quickly. They are a serious threat to GRMN and Tom Tom.
    Dec 29 09:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Android and Apple: Smartphones Require Smart Strategy [View article]
    I've been dabbling with the Android OS recently and I have to say it is promising. But GSlusher is right. The biggest hurdle is the fact there is a risk of a splintering effect that development teams will have to manage for Android OS 1.5, 1.6, 2.0, etc. Throw in multiple hardware configurations and the law that bugs happen, and you have a problematic situation. The Android framework is supposed to abstract these differences to make it easier. The jury is still out. The two companies that should be worried are Microsoft and Research in Motion.

    Apple has it's own mojo going and will be leaders for quite some time.
    Dec 2 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Android and Apple: Smartphones Require Smart Strategy [View article]
    I've been dabbling with the Android OS recently and I have to say it is promising. But GSlusher is right. The biggest hurdle is the fact there is a risk of a splintering effect that development teams will have to manage for Android OS 1.5, 1.6, 2.0, etc. Throw in multiple hardware configurations and the law that bugs happen, and you have a problematic situation. The Android framework is supposed to abstract these differences to make it easier. The jury is still out. The two companies that should be worried are Microsoft and Research in Motion.

    Apple has it's own mojo going and will be leaders for quite some time.
    Dec 2 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • America Movil: Time to Reap Rewards [View article]
    They definitely reaped the benefits, Q3 was pretty strong. I'm going to be taking a look at this company more closely with respect to operational factors and try to take forex out of the equation to see how this company is doing. Will post to seekingalpha in a few weeks.
    Nov 3 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Things You Need to Know When Analyzing Corporate Debt [View article]
    Great write up, thanks for posting.
    Oct 17 09:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Healthcare, Education: Two Reasons to Worry About America's Future [View article]
    Calling out STRA and APOL on this analysis is a bit of a stretch. For profit education companies serve a specific need in the education market. If you're going to talk education, stick with the fundamentals surrounding these companies, FFEL and Title IV loans, enrollments, the future of auction rate securities that back a substantial portion of these loans, and tuition rates, and the needs these companies serve compared against community colleges, universities, and trade schools.
    Aug 29 12:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Reality for Higher Education [View article]
    What Mr.Salomon is eluding too is a possible shift and serious consideration for what was once the trade school circuit (The DeVry's, ITT, and Corinthian's of the world). If the value/price conscious parent/student continues to remain after an economic recovery, these outfits may continue to see strong enrollments... At last check most of these companies are fully valued and have discounted the strength of this sector for the remainder of this year and next.

    Jul 29 12:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Upgraded, Target Set at $100 [View article]
    They will increase market share and revenues. However, their margin picture won't change any time soon. The analysts will continue to focus on revenue growth and their digital strategy. No one can break out how much their digital strategy is bringing in to the bottom line except for the people that work at Amazon.

    Margin growth is the only thing that should be propping up their current share price, and that growth isn't going to happen for a while.
    Jul 9 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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