David Tsao

Will 2009 Bring Ring Three of the Financial Circus?

If you look into the ISM Manufacturing Report on Business and scroll all the way down to the Employment Index, you'll see that purchasing managers had a really negative outlook on employment last month (index fell to 29.9 from 34.2 the previous month. We are only a few days into the new year. Layoffs require time to plan and execute.

At the heart of any economic stability is employment. We won't see stabilization until we go through massive layoffs (which have not occured yet).

Reaching for the Bottom in the Markets

I was thinking about checking out the time frames around 1929, but there was one specific reason why I didn't. Many of the instruments available to governments, banks, and other institutions were not available back then.

The recent interventions aren't saying much to tame the market's wild rides... but over time the newly injected capital should drive a wedge into the fundamental economic situation and hopefully bottom out.

As for timing this, that depends on your frame of reference.