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David Urban

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  • Revising The Calculation Of GDP: Fuzzy Accounting Raises Red Flags [View article]
    Nope.
    Jun 4 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revising The Calculation Of GDP: Fuzzy Accounting Raises Red Flags [View article]
    Freddy, we are the first major economy to implement these changes.
    May 29 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on the Q1 GDP (first estimate) miss: Government spending slowdown continues, with real federal government spending off 8.4% vs. 14.8% in Q4; defense spending off 11.5% vs. 22.1%. Real PCE +3.2%. Nonresidential fixed investment +2.1%. Real exports +2.9%, Real imports +5.4%. Real final sales +1.5% vs. 1.9% in Q4. Inventories added 103 bps to GDP in Q1 after subtracting 152 bps in Q4. SPY -0.3% premarket. The long bond pops half of a point. TLT +0.8% premarket. (full report[View news story]
    The last time we did an infrastructure stimulus bill it was wasted on things like an Alaskan airport nobody uses.

    http://bit.ly/17mOfGC

    It was a money grab for political donors and did little to fix our infrastructure problems.
    Apr 26 12:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • March Retail Sales: -0.4% vs. +0.1% expected, +1% prior (revised). Ex-auto -0.4% vs +0.1% expected. [View news story]
    They can't stop QE. Every mention of a slowdown is met by a selloff and then the Fed puts it back on.

    The problem is every bubble needs an increasing amount of capital to sustain it.

    Looking forward to May. What is the market PE?
    Apr 12 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • March Retail Sales: -0.4% vs. +0.1% expected, +1% prior (revised). Ex-auto -0.4% vs +0.1% expected. [View news story]
    So how is that recovery going? How many erasers are being taken to 1Q GDP or are we hoping for inventory restocking to prod the number higher?
    Apr 12 01:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • March Nonfarm Payrolls: +88K vs. consensus +190K, 268K previous (revised from +236K). Unemployment rate 7.6% vs. consensus 7.7%, 7.7% previous. [View news story]
    I don't begrudge the woman benefits being a single mom because I have friends who are single parents but the idea that she is in a position to turn down a raise and better herself because it would hurt her benefits is preposterous.

    It just shows how far the pendulum has swung in this country away from job creation to a welfare state.

    The fact that she can get more than 4x her annual salary in government benefits is out of whack.
    Apr 5 01:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • March Nonfarm Payrolls: +88K vs. consensus +190K, 268K previous (revised from +236K). Unemployment rate 7.6% vs. consensus 7.7%, 7.7% previous. [View news story]
    Food for thought:

    Living the good life off of government benefits

    http://bit.ly/XVynVE
    Apr 5 12:37 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • March Nonfarm Payrolls: +88K vs. consensus +190K, 268K previous (revised from +236K). Unemployment rate 7.6% vs. consensus 7.7%, 7.7% previous. [View news story]
    The only way to collect unemployment is to give up any and all work altogether.

    I called the Dept. of Labor last year and asked them about their definition of employment. Turns out if you worked one day and made one dollar and received a 1099 for that one dollar you are considered employed by the US Dept. of Labor. Whether or not you are underemployed is a different statistic.
    Apr 5 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Turn Out The Lights In Europe And Buy Gold [View article]
    Waiting for my response about the comment above?
    Apr 3 01:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Turn Out The Lights In Europe And Buy Gold [View article]
    How has big government helped this country?

    If anything it has made things less efficient and more wasteful. When people cry about austerity being bad in the US ask yourself where the additional money being spent since 2008 has gone. Are we seeing any tangible growth? Last quarter's growth was less than 1%, the third quarters was skewed due to military spending, this quarter will be skewed because of inventory replenishment.

    Wages and employment are not increasing in a tangible way to outweigh the number of new entrants into the workforce.

    The country has gone too far in terms of providing benefits. Should a single, mother of two children be put in a position where she has to turn down a raise or risk losing government benefits that total almost four times her salary?

    http://bit.ly/XVynVE
    Apr 2 01:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Turn Out The Lights In Europe And Buy Gold [View article]
    I am not sure Bernanke is using any classical monetary policy at the present time outside of 'I have no idea what I am doing but if I stop it disproves my lives work studying Japan and the Great Depression.'

    He has literally led us into a Japan-style debt trap after spending his life learning how to not repeat their mistakes.

    This comment from Arthur Burns wiki sums up my feelings about Ben Bernanke since it is apparent that history is repeating itself.

    Conservative economist Bruce Bartlett gives Burns poor marks for his tenure as Fed chairman because the inflationary forces that began in 1970 took more than a decade to resolve. "The only disagreement among economists is whether Burns fully understood the mistakes he was making, or was so wedded to incorrect Keynesian theories that he didn't realize what he was doing. The only alternative is that he was under irresistible political pressure from Nixon and had no choice. Neither explanation is very favorable to Burns. Economists now recognize the Nixon era as Exhibit A in how the adoption of bad economic policies in pursuit of short-term political gain eventually turns out to be bad politics as well."
    Mar 28 10:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Turn Out The Lights In Europe And Buy Gold [View article]
    This is all about getting past the German elections and have Merkel re-elected. The absolute last thing Europe wants is for the election to become a referendum on the Euro and bailouts.
    Mar 27 01:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Turn Out The Lights In Europe And Buy Gold [View article]
    The first quarter macro trade has been to be long equities and short gold. That is clear from the price movements but the quarter is coming to a close and the rally is getting long in the tooth while gold is basing.

    I honestly would not be on the long side of the market.

    The BRICS appear ready to break with the IMF and World Bank. That puts the world now at odds between the 'advanced' nations (US, EU, and Japan) and 'developing' world.

    http://bloom.bg/13vLwwq

    http://bit.ly/ZpmG8G

    This is not priced into the market.

    You are looking at gold priced in dollars and not priced in the currencies of where the buying is occurring.
    Mar 27 01:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Turn Out The Lights In Europe And Buy Gold [View article]
    You have to think about risk premiums. The EU is dead set on running roughshod over bondholder rights. They have now added deposit confiscation to the mix.

    What is next to keep the shell game running. The austerity programs are not hitting the core problems which is job growth and unemployment.

    You have European countries with unemployment rates over 20% and risk a lost generation with respect to 18-25 year olds.

    Germany is falling into a recession with elections scheduled for the fall.

    Are we priced for a breakup of Europe? Where will the growth come from?
    Mar 27 01:13 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Miles Kimball makes the case for a third term for Ben Bernanke: He “has developed an unparalleled skill in explaining and defending controversial monetary policy measures to Congress and to the public. The most important ways in which U.S. monetary policy has fallen short in the last few years are because of the limits Congress has implicitly and explicitly placed on the Fed.” [View news story]
    It will create the greatest short trade in the history of capital markets if interest rates ever rise. Nobody will be caught dead holding 3% 30 year mortgage bonds.
    Mar 23 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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