Yamana Gold Is Fairly Valued Based On Asset Valuation [View article]
You are missing value added by new mines and production coming online and the ability to hold down costs.
No offense but this is a fairly simplistic valuation that does not include a significant number of variables or nuances that make up properly valuing a mining stock.
Apple (AAPL) shareholders have a lot to celebrate heading into Thursday's shareholder meeting, but all the same, some hot-button subjects are likely to get airtime. Tim Cook's plans for Apple's giant cash balance should be at the top of the list. Corporate governance may be close behind - last year, shareholders voted for a non-binding resolution requiring directors to be elected with a majority vote. [View news story]
Amazon (AMZN) has pulled 5,000 Kindle titles offered by distributor Independent Publishers Group (IPG), after the latter refused to given in to the former's demand for better deal terms. The book publishing landscape has been fraught with minefields for Amazon, as different policies manage to draw the ire of publishers, retailers, and book buyers. [View news story]
Amazon needs to seriously review their independent publishing areas.
The areas live in a silo or black hole where no one can talk with anyone.
The terms of Greece's deal with its private creditors will be published after eurozone finmins meet on Wednesday, Reuters reports. Bondholders will take a net loss of 70% and the average interest on new bonds will be 3.5%. Creditors will also receive an additional warrant linked to Greek growth, thereby giving them upside potential. [View news story]
Bondholders should be changed to private bondholders since the ECB, EU, and pension plans are not participating.
I can't wait to see the market price the new 3.5% Greek bonds since the risk profile warrants a 3.5% coupon.
The Greek government has secured the votes necessary to pass the austerity bill, paving the way for the next EU/IMF bailout, reports CNBC. [View news story]
I think for the anti-Germany/Euro support to ebb there will have to be an increase in economic growth and a feeling that people's lives are getting better.
Given what I have seen from the Greek's over the past two years failing to meet previous bailouts, the continuation of corruption in the tax authority (40-40-20 plans), and a poor business climate I have no confidence in their ability to hold this agreement over the long term.
In fact, the Troika found an additional $15 billion dollar hole in the budget during this recent trip.
The Greek government has secured the votes necessary to pass the austerity bill, paving the way for the next EU/IMF bailout, reports CNBC. [View news story]
I think that is a very real possibility but what happens if the riots continue and the people continue to pressure the government for early elections?
Given the current state of affairs it is unlikely that everything will quiet down.
My biggest fear is that in these situations a far left or right party has a greater chance of winning the election because the current leaders are fractured and weak.
Is it likely that a pro-EU party will win? No. In fact it is quite the opposite which is why the EU made the Greeks agree to uphold the deal no matter what happens in the election.
The Greek government has secured the votes necessary to pass the austerity bill, paving the way for the next EU/IMF bailout, reports CNBC. [View news story]
When you cut the minimum wage by 20% and immediately lay off thousands of Greek workers it will be hard for them to vote pro-EU.
Now is when it really gets fun. Does the government stall on promised elections?
The riots will continue and the Greeks will need another $10 billion next quarter.
Contrarians start to bang the drum for a turn lower in the market after seeing a host of analysts and pundits - including Dr. Doom and Blackrock's Larry Fink - turn to the bullish side on fundamental and technical factors. Continental Capital Advisors warns that while some market watchers see investor bullishness as an indicator that stocks will move higher, it believes lopsided sentiment is the Achilles' heel for markets. Hedge fund manager Uri Landesman keeps it even simpler, noting that "just to sustain the current levels you'd need a surfeit of good news." [View news story]
That is true but most fail the basic test.
What are you contrarian about?
If they cannot answer that question then they are not a contrarian investor.
Contrarians start to bang the drum for a turn lower in the market after seeing a host of analysts and pundits - including Dr. Doom and Blackrock's Larry Fink - turn to the bullish side on fundamental and technical factors. Continental Capital Advisors warns that while some market watchers see investor bullishness as an indicator that stocks will move higher, it believes lopsided sentiment is the Achilles' heel for markets. Hedge fund manager Uri Landesman keeps it even simpler, noting that "just to sustain the current levels you'd need a surfeit of good news." [View news story]
I have friends that are converting IRA funds into rental properties. People are scared of the stock market. They don't trust it anymore with all the HFT's.
Contrarians start to bang the drum for a turn lower in the market after seeing a host of analysts and pundits - including Dr. Doom and Blackrock's Larry Fink - turn to the bullish side on fundamental and technical factors. Continental Capital Advisors warns that while some market watchers see investor bullishness as an indicator that stocks will move higher, it believes lopsided sentiment is the Achilles' heel for markets. Hedge fund manager Uri Landesman keeps it even simpler, noting that "just to sustain the current levels you'd need a surfeit of good news." [View news story]
The selloffs now are fast and furious and you need to protect gains.
Contrarians start to bang the drum for a turn lower in the market after seeing a host of analysts and pundits - including Dr. Doom and Blackrock's Larry Fink - turn to the bullish side on fundamental and technical factors. Continental Capital Advisors warns that while some market watchers see investor bullishness as an indicator that stocks will move higher, it believes lopsided sentiment is the Achilles' heel for markets. Hedge fund manager Uri Landesman keeps it even simpler, noting that "just to sustain the current levels you'd need a surfeit of good news." [View news story]
As a contrarian I see overbought technicals, extremely bullish sentiment, and the broader market beginning to lag with just a few names participating.
We should see a pullback in the coming week with another move higher into March that sets the stage for a major top this year.
There are a number of contrarian indicators that I use that are flashing warning signs outside of the ones listed above.
Investors should be utilizing stop loss orders to protect gains.
"(We're in) less than the 1st inning" of the stock market rally, says Ron Baron. Stocks, he claims, coming off the "worst decade in the history of our country," are the cheapest in his lifetime. "Greece is the size of Delaware, the size of Delaware, this is what everyone is talking about," he says, shaking his head. Warning: the bulls are out in this video. [View news story]
I am bullish for another month or so and then everything begins to fall apart.
Right now you should start utilizing stops to protect profits.
"(We're in) less than the 1st inning" of the stock market rally, says Ron Baron. Stocks, he claims, coming off the "worst decade in the history of our country," are the cheapest in his lifetime. "Greece is the size of Delaware, the size of Delaware, this is what everyone is talking about," he says, shaking his head. Warning: the bulls are out in this video. [View news story]
It is called a value trap and although Greece is small people are worried because nobody knows the banks true exposure.
They claim to be hedged but if they are using CDS as a hedge the ISDA has called the Greek restructuring a voluntary default so there will be no payouts making CDS hedging a moot point.
While gold does not have its real value reduced by inflation, it has not proven a great inflation hedge, according to a study by Dimson and Staunton (giants in this field of research). The metal's real return since 1900 has been 1.1%, with the main strike being that gold does not provide an income flow. Equities have returned 5.4% annualized over the same period. [View news story]
The United States usually determines the historical price of gold. One ounce of gold was fixed at an estimated $20.67 US Dollars (USD) for many decades until 1934, at which point the price was raised to about $35 USD per ounce. In 1968, a two-tiered pricing structure was established, and by 1975 the price of gold was allowed to fluctuate.
-----
When you use the old data and do not disclose that the price of gold was fixed for such a long period of time the analysis becomes flawed.
Dow Theorists tell you a lagging Dow Jones Transport Average is an ominous sign for the future health of the stock market, says Mark Hulbert. Unfortunately, for the moment at least, that's what's happening right now. As the story goes, the transports are usually more sensitive to changes in the market barometer, so weakness, even just relative weakness like we're seeing today, could hint at bigger trouble down the road. [View news story]
Your best bet right now is to closely monitor your stops and protect gains.
Yamana Gold Is Fairly Valued Based On Asset Valuation [View article]
No offense but this is a fairly simplistic valuation that does not include a significant number of variables or nuances that make up properly valuing a mining stock.
Apple (AAPL) shareholders have a lot to celebrate heading into Thursday's shareholder meeting, but all the same, some hot-button subjects are likely to get airtime. Tim Cook's plans for Apple's giant cash balance should be at the top of the list. Corporate governance may be close behind - last year, shareholders voted for a non-binding resolution requiring directors to be elected with a majority vote. [View news story]
Amazon (AMZN) has pulled 5,000 Kindle titles offered by distributor Independent Publishers Group (IPG), after the latter refused to given in to the former's demand for better deal terms. The book publishing landscape has been fraught with minefields for Amazon, as different policies manage to draw the ire of publishers, retailers, and book buyers. [View news story]
The areas live in a silo or black hole where no one can talk with anyone.
The terms of Greece's deal with its private creditors will be published after eurozone finmins meet on Wednesday, Reuters reports. Bondholders will take a net loss of 70% and the average interest on new bonds will be 3.5%. Creditors will also receive an additional warrant linked to Greek growth, thereby giving them upside potential. [View news story]
I can't wait to see the market price the new 3.5% Greek bonds since the risk profile warrants a 3.5% coupon.
The Greek government has secured the votes necessary to pass the austerity bill, paving the way for the next EU/IMF bailout, reports CNBC. [View news story]
Given what I have seen from the Greek's over the past two years failing to meet previous bailouts, the continuation of corruption in the tax authority (40-40-20 plans), and a poor business climate I have no confidence in their ability to hold this agreement over the long term.
In fact, the Troika found an additional $15 billion dollar hole in the budget during this recent trip.
The Greek government has secured the votes necessary to pass the austerity bill, paving the way for the next EU/IMF bailout, reports CNBC. [View news story]
Given the current state of affairs it is unlikely that everything will quiet down.
My biggest fear is that in these situations a far left or right party has a greater chance of winning the election because the current leaders are fractured and weak.
Is it likely that a pro-EU party will win? No. In fact it is quite the opposite which is why the EU made the Greeks agree to uphold the deal no matter what happens in the election.
The Greek government has secured the votes necessary to pass the austerity bill, paving the way for the next EU/IMF bailout, reports CNBC. [View news story]
Now is when it really gets fun. Does the government stall on promised elections?
The riots will continue and the Greeks will need another $10 billion next quarter.
Contrarians start to bang the drum for a turn lower in the market after seeing a host of analysts and pundits - including Dr. Doom and Blackrock's Larry Fink - turn to the bullish side on fundamental and technical factors. Continental Capital Advisors warns that while some market watchers see investor bullishness as an indicator that stocks will move higher, it believes lopsided sentiment is the Achilles' heel for markets. Hedge fund manager Uri Landesman keeps it even simpler, noting that "just to sustain the current levels you'd need a surfeit of good news." [View news story]
What are you contrarian about?
If they cannot answer that question then they are not a contrarian investor.
Contrarians start to bang the drum for a turn lower in the market after seeing a host of analysts and pundits - including Dr. Doom and Blackrock's Larry Fink - turn to the bullish side on fundamental and technical factors. Continental Capital Advisors warns that while some market watchers see investor bullishness as an indicator that stocks will move higher, it believes lopsided sentiment is the Achilles' heel for markets. Hedge fund manager Uri Landesman keeps it even simpler, noting that "just to sustain the current levels you'd need a surfeit of good news." [View news story]
Contrarians start to bang the drum for a turn lower in the market after seeing a host of analysts and pundits - including Dr. Doom and Blackrock's Larry Fink - turn to the bullish side on fundamental and technical factors. Continental Capital Advisors warns that while some market watchers see investor bullishness as an indicator that stocks will move higher, it believes lopsided sentiment is the Achilles' heel for markets. Hedge fund manager Uri Landesman keeps it even simpler, noting that "just to sustain the current levels you'd need a surfeit of good news." [View news story]
Contrarians start to bang the drum for a turn lower in the market after seeing a host of analysts and pundits - including Dr. Doom and Blackrock's Larry Fink - turn to the bullish side on fundamental and technical factors. Continental Capital Advisors warns that while some market watchers see investor bullishness as an indicator that stocks will move higher, it believes lopsided sentiment is the Achilles' heel for markets. Hedge fund manager Uri Landesman keeps it even simpler, noting that "just to sustain the current levels you'd need a surfeit of good news." [View news story]
We should see a pullback in the coming week with another move higher into March that sets the stage for a major top this year.
There are a number of contrarian indicators that I use that are flashing warning signs outside of the ones listed above.
Investors should be utilizing stop loss orders to protect gains.
"(We're in) less than the 1st inning" of the stock market rally, says Ron Baron. Stocks, he claims, coming off the "worst decade in the history of our country," are the cheapest in his lifetime. "Greece is the size of Delaware, the size of Delaware, this is what everyone is talking about," he says, shaking his head. Warning: the bulls are out in this video. [View news story]
Right now you should start utilizing stops to protect profits.
Still long-term bullish on gold.
"(We're in) less than the 1st inning" of the stock market rally, says Ron Baron. Stocks, he claims, coming off the "worst decade in the history of our country," are the cheapest in his lifetime. "Greece is the size of Delaware, the size of Delaware, this is what everyone is talking about," he says, shaking his head. Warning: the bulls are out in this video. [View news story]
They claim to be hedged but if they are using CDS as a hedge the ISDA has called the Greek restructuring a voluntary default so there will be no payouts making CDS hedging a moot point.
While gold does not have its real value reduced by inflation, it has not proven a great inflation hedge, according to a study by Dimson and Staunton (giants in this field of research). The metal's real return since 1900 has been 1.1%, with the main strike being that gold does not provide an income flow. Equities have returned 5.4% annualized over the same period. [View news story]
The United States usually determines the historical price of gold. One ounce of gold was fixed at an estimated $20.67 US Dollars (USD) for many decades until 1934, at which point the price was raised to about $35 USD per ounce. In 1968, a two-tiered pricing structure was established, and by 1975 the price of gold was allowed to fluctuate.
-----
When you use the old data and do not disclose that the price of gold was fixed for such a long period of time the analysis becomes flawed.
Dow Theorists tell you a lagging Dow Jones Transport Average is an ominous sign for the future health of the stock market, says Mark Hulbert. Unfortunately, for the moment at least, that's what's happening right now. As the story goes, the transports are usually more sensitive to changes in the market barometer, so weakness, even just relative weakness like we're seeing today, could hint at bigger trouble down the road. [View news story]