Seeking Alpha

David Urban

 
View as an RSS Feed
View David Urban's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Technology 2013: The Gladiators Have Entered Into The Ring [View article]
    Skype's biggest problem for me is monetizing that user base. I use it to make overseas calls to friends in Asia and while we use the video function all the time we only do Skype to Skype because it is free. Saves a bundle on overseas fees.

    Online has been a real drag for sometime and if they can make it profitable or at least break even I think that adds close to $5 to the share price.

    I love what Microsoft is doing and believe the stock had tremendous upside if they execute.

    I agree with your $50 price target.
    Dec 5, 2012. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Technology 2013: The Gladiators Have Entered Into The Ring [View article]
    I think Apple will always be around. I may be off but I do believe they were the only laptop/desktop maker to grow sales this past year so I am not worried about them going away anytime soon. They have a solid core of consumers willing to purchase their products.

    I actually think the stock is very undervalued at current levels.

    The whole Google Maps debate was interesting to me not for the comments about Apple's Maps program but the fact that Apple and Microsoft are moving away from Google's products, a subtle but important hit at their Search business which derives a fair amount of profit from their Maps software.

    Bing is the default search now on Firefox and you would be surprised at how many people just search for something lazily without bothering to go to Google first.

    Microsoft did a great job adding products in the past year with Nokia (smartphones) and the Surface. They now have a catalog that can compete with Apple and Google. The key is execution. If they execute with either one I think the stock has tremendous upside.
    Dec 5, 2012. 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Technology 2013: The Gladiators Have Entered Into The Ring [View article]
    I am most interested in Microsoft's ad campaigns as they are a serious departure from the past. It seems as though the sleeping giant has awakened.

    Apple should be ok. If anything this past year has shown them that they have to push themselves again in order to remain at the cutting edge.
    Dec 5, 2012. 10:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold gets a downgrade at Goldman Sachs, the firm lowering its 2013 end-of-year price forecast to $1,800/oz., and 2014 to $1,750. "We see growing downside risks ... the gold outlook is caught between the opposing forces of more Fed easing and a gradual increase in U.S. real rates on better U.S. economic growth." [View news story]
    This is as clear of a buy signal as it gets.
    Dec 5, 2012. 09:14 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A strike at Californian ports is threatening to delay the delivery of some holiday season cargo after longshoremen and clerical workers began action on Tuesday due to an impasse in contract talks. As of yesterday, seven of eight terminals at the Port of Los Angeles were closed, as were three of six in Long Beach. Ships have started to divert to other ports, including Mexico [View news story]
    Most holiday stuff is already in port. This explains the 15% jump in imports last month so the November and December numbers should smooth the data.
    Nov 30, 2012. 07:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Looks Expensive [View article]
    The problem with gold not having a yield or coupon is that US Treasuries today on the short end are not offering a yield or coupon.

    Even CD's offer yields so small they might as well call them zero coupon.
    Nov 28, 2012. 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Flash crash in gold? The yellow metal dives $20 in the space of a few trades, now -1.6% to $1,716/oz. [View news story]
    Thank you for allowing me to buy gold at a cheaper price.
    Nov 28, 2012. 09:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Looks Expensive [View article]
    It is not about Gold rising in price and the Dow falling in price, it is about Gold rising at a faster rate than the Dow. So far this year Gold is up in the double digits while the Dow is in the low to mid single digits.

    To see it relevance check here:

    http://bit.ly/UrJzu7
    Nov 28, 2012. 08:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Looks Expensive [View article]
    Gold/WTI is meaningful but even more meaningful is Gold/Dow and Gold/SPX.

    Technically, we are a little overbought but the fundamentals remain in place for this rally to continue over the long term.
    Nov 27, 2012. 09:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's a kitchen sink of initiatives agreed to by the Troika to help reduce Greece's debt load. Among them are buybacks of the country's debt, a return of profits booked by the ECB from its SMP purchases, a reduction in bailout program interest rates, and the outright deferral of some interest payments. Worried about frontrunning? Lagarde: "The less we talk about the debt buyback, the better we are with regard to pricing." [View news story]
    This is just bullish for gold. Europe is monetizing Greece's and other countries debts while they continue to run up deficits.

    I may be reassessing my final price targets for gold and silver.
    Nov 27, 2012. 09:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's a kitchen sink of initiatives agreed to by the Troika to help reduce Greece's debt load. Among them are buybacks of the country's debt, a return of profits booked by the ECB from its SMP purchases, a reduction in bailout program interest rates, and the outright deferral of some interest payments. Worried about frontrunning? Lagarde: "The less we talk about the debt buyback, the better we are with regard to pricing." [View news story]
    Just kicking the can down the road until the German election is over and they can negotiate a principal writedown.
    Nov 26, 2012. 10:59 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7.8T reasons dividend tax increases won’t crush stocks: That's the estimated value of all equity assets held by retirement investors that are not tax sensitive. Though it seems counterintuitive, Lucas Kawa thinks an increase on dividend tax rates might actually benefit the millions who hold high-yield dividend stocks in their IRAs and are able to buy into a potential sell without being impacted by the rising tax rate. [View news story]
    Agreed. You used to be able to hold good discussions down here but now everything is becoming politicized.
    Nov 26, 2012. 05:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Troika is reportedly inching closer to a deal that would allow Greece to receive the next tranches of its bailout, with the IMF agreeing to deem the country's debt viable if it falls to 124% of GDP by 2020 instead of 120%. That apparently means that the funding gap that negotiators need to plug falls to around €10B, for which several proposals have been made. It seems to be a case of, if you pass the red danger line, move the line. [View news story]
    Merkel is trying to avoid making the election a referendum on the Euro which terrifies Europe.

    The last thing the European political leaders need is a German election where the electorate is asked to take sides between cutting Greece loose/leave the Euro and a debt writedown.
    Nov 24, 2012. 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Troika is reportedly inching closer to a deal that would allow Greece to receive the next tranches of its bailout, with the IMF agreeing to deem the country's debt viable if it falls to 124% of GDP by 2020 instead of 120%. That apparently means that the funding gap that negotiators need to plug falls to around €10B, for which several proposals have been made. It seems to be a case of, if you pass the red danger line, move the line. [View news story]
    Actually, it is kick the can down the road until after the German election in September of next year.
    Nov 24, 2012. 05:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A strong early start to the holiday shopping season looks to be a bright spot for the stock market, but both could soon stall if lawmakers don't make progress on the “fiscal cliff” when they return in the coming week. Despite the promises of congressional leaders and the President to reach a compromise, many on Wall Street are betting Washington will revert to its old self-destructive ways before any deal is reached - and that could easily upset the stock market, as well as holiday shoppers, particularly those at the high end. [View news story]
    Unfortunately the economy is not strong with economic growth under 2% and fewer jobs being added against new entrants to the workforce.

    People I speak with are too sanguine about this being resolved but it concerns me since it has dragged on for almost two years now.

    We can't keep adding a trillion dollars to the national debt every year and expect to not fall into a Japanese style debt trap.
    Nov 24, 2012. 05:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,036 Comments
1,043 Likes