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David Urban

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  • Silver Wheaton: Waiting on the Next Chapter [View article]
    When the new CEO took over I heard the bearish calls and felt that you should wait until the earnings call to hear what management articulated regarding the future of the company.

    Unfortunately, they came up short.

    In contrast, I listened to the IAG call around the same time and was impressed how the CEO was upfront and articulated a clear plan of action for the $1.2 billion in cash they have accumulated.

    Contrasting both calls left me feeling underwhelmed by SLW. While both companies may have different business plans it was the articulation of the business plan from the CEO that made the difference for me.
    May 16 10:51 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold vs. silver: Reasons for investing in both still abound, but they're not the same - silver looks more like tulips lately, while gold is still gold. There are key differences: not only in supply of the metals, but the out-of-whack gold-silver price ratio.  [View news story]
    The selloff in silver was due to seasonal factors. May is typically a weak month for gold and silver and right on cue we get a selloff.

    The bull market is not over but the rise in margins was needed. The government took a lot of flack for not stepping in sooner with mortgages and it was better long-term that some air gets let out of the bubble now.

    Still bullish long-term and I have nibbled at SLV in the $35 area and will continue to do so over the weak summer period.
    May 14 01:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "I don't think the policymakers know what the consequences are of what they're doing," says Mohamed El-Erian. He believes the Fed calling elevated prices "transitory" is a mistake because it removes the fear of tighter policy from the market.  [View news story]
    Unless gas prices are going back to $2 in the near future the rise in gas prices is not transitory.
    May 13 03:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Invest Post-QE2 [View article]
    You're welcome. I like this play until the August/September timeframe when we should see a bottom in gold and silver leading to the next leg up.

    May 13 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft agrees to buy Skype for $8.5B [View article]
    Just another reason why I think MSFT is a short.

    10x revenues for a company that is breakeven and saddled with over $500 million in debt.
    May 10 06:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The White House takes a dim view of John Boehner's demand for trillions in spending cuts: "It is simply irresponsible to declare that you will tank the U.S. economy if you don't get what you want." Tying the debate over the debt limit to budget cuts would be tantamount to holding the economy "hostage," spokesman Jay Carney says.  [View news story]
    Washington DC has become a significant risk to investors portfolios.
    May 10 04:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thursday will reportedly bring another Senate Banking vote on the hardest of all Fed board nominations, Peter Diamond - twice voted down by the GOP. Ranking Republican Richard Shelby still opposes the nomination of an "old-fashioned big government Keynesian," and Diamond is pro-QE. (previously)  [View news story]
    Nice to see someone is taking a stand no matter how small.
    May 9 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The EU may require Greece to provide collateral such as assets or revenue from asset sales in order to receive extra aid and avoid a debt restructuring, a source says. A German official says other steps may include lower interest rates or longer maturities on bailout loans. (previous)  [View news story]
    The longer this story plays out the greater chance of investors in Greek, Irish, and Portugese debt will be forced to accept haircuts on their positions.
    May 8 03:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • You can have Bill Gross' short position in Treasurys when another recession pries it out of his hands. After weeks of the bonds' gains, Gross tells Reuters that yields are low, but "perhaps the only justification for a further rally would be weak economic growth or a future recession" that dents inflation. The 30-year yield up slightly, +0.02 to 4.28%, but otherwise still falling: 10-year -0.01 to 3.14%; five-year -0.03 to 1.85%.  [View news story]
    The 30 year yield has moved from a high of 4.76% in February to 4.26% now and the 20 year yield has moved from 4.56% to 4% so someone is buying.
    May 6 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You can have Bill Gross' short position in Treasurys when another recession pries it out of his hands. After weeks of the bonds' gains, Gross tells Reuters that yields are low, but "perhaps the only justification for a further rally would be weak economic growth or a future recession" that dents inflation. The 30-year yield up slightly, +0.02 to 4.28%, but otherwise still falling: 10-year -0.01 to 3.14%; five-year -0.03 to 1.85%.  [View news story]
    I am actually long the 20+ Treasuries believing that the US will not let long yields rise.
    May 6 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Silver Correction Is Over, Next Stop $62 [View article]
    Gold and silver typically correct in May which leads to a rally and then a bottom in the late summer/early fall timeframe.

    This selloff does not surprise me at all and presents a great buying opportunity.
    May 3 03:49 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft's (MSFT -0.5%) Steve Ballmer makes a surprise showing at BlackBerry World to report that Bing will be the default search engine for the Research In Motion (RIMM +0.5%) devices. Search and maps apps will be integrated as well.  [View news story]
    MSFT might be better off trying to stem the red ink in Online before pushing forward. Last quarter the operating loss was larger than revenues.
    May 3 03:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver is plunging again, now down nearly 15% in the last 2 sessions and taking out its low from the "flash crash" on Sunday night. SLV -5.8%, PSLV -9.5%. Silver miners are outperforming. SIL -2.3%.  [View news story]
    May is typically a down month for gold and silver setting the stage for a rally then a bottom in the late summer, early fall timeframe.

    We are not seeing the end of a bull market just a short-term pause before the next leg up.
    May 3 03:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Short Case for Microsoft [View article]
    I sold my silver positions last week, almost finished with gold, and went long fixed income and will be going long the dollar shortly.

    Very interesting article coming soon on going long fixed income and the dollar.
    May 2 07:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Short Case for Microsoft [View article]
    One thing you failed to mention was that the operating loss for Online outstripped revenues as a whole.

    I just don'e see where the growth is going to come from in the next year from MSFT. Kinect is a nice product but has nowhere near the margins of Office or Windows.

    Online is bleeding cash and Windows 7 is having difficulties gaining traction in the smartphone space.
    May 2 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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