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David Urban

 
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  • Yamana Gold: Solid Earnings, Organic Growth but Greater Risk [View article]
    @jdtaillant - You might be interested in my Instablog on Currency Risk in South America.
    Mar 9, 2011. 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver, Gold, S&P 500, Euro [View instapost]
    Great post and I agree with your sentiments.

    When do you think we may see a top technically?
    Mar 6, 2011. 04:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldcorp: Great 2010 and Even Better 2011 [View article]
    I agree. I have owned Goldcorp in the past and will own it in the future. My problem being burned in the past while we are in these trading ranges while the everyone waited for questions surrounding the build out of projects to be answered. To be safe I would not chase unless there is a clear breakout to new highs on strong volume.
    Mar 5, 2011. 02:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hecla Mining: Solid 2010 But Settlement Risk Remains [View article]
    If you would like to discuss CDE you are more than welcome to write an article on them.
    Mar 4, 2011. 11:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldcorp: Great 2010 and Even Better 2011 [View article]
    I am a bit wary of the overbought status so I am holding back unless we break to a new all-time high.

    I am also under a 72 hour freeze with my article publication and I put myself under a personal trading freeze when I started writing the article and doing the research.

    Personally, I am long gold and a couple of juniors.
    Mar 4, 2011. 10:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hecla Mining: Solid 2010 But Settlement Risk Remains [View article]
    It is not that I feel that they will not be able to fund the payment but do they release new shares along with the cash portion or will the payment be all cash?

    The accrual jumped by more than $190 million which in my eyes is a material event and worthy of mention when the earnings release was pushed back. Shareholders should have been warned.

    It is likely that the settlement number jumped substantially because of the price of silver and Hecla's ability to pay. Now, if silver jumps to $40-45 per ounce will the accrual increase again? No party has agreed to the settlement so there is risk that the total amount is revisited once again.
    Mar 3, 2011. 03:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hecla Mining: Solid 2010 But Settlement Risk Remains [View article]
    I avoid CDE because the current management has a poor history of building shareholder wealth.

    There are a number of past issues regarding management that I would prefer not to discuss here.
    Mar 3, 2011. 03:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Standard Resources: Waiting on the Mine Build-Out [View article]
    I think we will see a bit of a pullback as the recent run is consolidated but the long-term trend is up. The ascent has been steep from a technical standpoint and it makes sense to consolidate for a period of time.
    Mar 3, 2011. 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Standard Resources: Waiting on the Mine Build-Out [View article]
    The question you have to ask is how long to you leave the asset in the ground? If there is no intention on behalf of management to put the deposit into production then why hold the stock over bullion?

    Cash flows can be maximized by building out new mines, implementing a dividend or share buyback, or used to acquire new deposits without diluting shareholders.
    Mar 3, 2011. 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hecla Mining: Solid 2010 But Settlement Risk Remains [View article]
    I avoid CDE because the current management has a poor history of building shareholder wealth.
    Mar 3, 2011. 03:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hecla Mining: Solid 2010 But Settlement Risk Remains [View article]
    I am not accounting for the tax credit because the first payment of $155 million will likely be due at the finalization of the agreement or soon thereafter with the rest of the payments spread out until 2014.

    It is the size of the initial payment and how it affects cash on hand that concerns me. I believe that up to $55 million can be paid out either in cash or stock which creates some dilution risk.

    I am also concerned over the size of the new accrual versus what was forecast. It is a sizable jump and they should have given the markets some sort of warning. In addition, no parties have agreed to the deal and we still have no idea if this is the final amount.

    I understand the need for discretion and the fact that they wanted to get this accrual on the books for 2010 and behind them but there was no clarity given to investors outside of canceling the 4th quarter earnings and not giving a future release date.

    This was a great quarter for Hecla but the way this issue was handled leaves a bad taste in my mouth.
    Mar 3, 2011. 01:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yamana Gold: Solid Earnings, Organic Growth but Greater Risk [View article]
    Here is an article from the WSJ a couple of days ago regarding the inflation risk in Argentina. This is why I am making a point to discuss it with respect to mining stocks.

    I am not saying to avoid the stocks but be aware of the risks inherent in investing in Argentina.

    online.wsj.com/article...
    Mar 1, 2011. 10:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yamana Gold: Solid Earnings, Organic Growth but Greater Risk [View article]
    I think one of the keys Yamana should do to unlock value is move away from the GEO calculation and instead focus more on their silver and copper production.

    I am impressed with their silver and copper numbers but it gets brushed aside in the reports.
    Mar 1, 2011. 10:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yamana Gold: Solid Earnings, Organic Growth but Greater Risk [View article]
    You are correct in that every company has some political and inflationary risk but in Argentina CDS spreads are the highest of any South American country, real inflation is running 15-20%, and the current government is up for reelection this year doing whatever they can to stay in power.

    The CDS spreads and inflation combination is not something you find in many international jurisdictions. I have been warning people about rising risk in Argentina for some time now.

    I like the growth profile but Yamana had some cost problems a few years ago when the Real was appreciating against the dollar.

    Those points deserve mention.
    Mar 1, 2011. 10:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Standard Resources: Waiting on the Mine Build-Out [View article]
    It appears to be a missing decimal point rather than an error in fact checking.
    Feb 25, 2011. 02:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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