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David Urban

 
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  • Down 1.9%, the DJIA slips below 13K for the first time since the day after Labor Day, and is off 4.4% since the September 14 QE∞ top. The S&P is off just about 5% since then, the Nasdaq 7%. Treasurys are having their best day of the year, the 10-year yield down 12 bps to 1.63%. [View news story]
    I see a triple top and we are hanging on support right now. Given the economic and earnings data I see no reason to be long right now.
    Nov 7 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Down 1.9%, the DJIA slips below 13K for the first time since the day after Labor Day, and is off 4.4% since the September 14 QE∞ top. The S&P is off just about 5% since then, the Nasdaq 7%. Treasurys are having their best day of the year, the 10-year yield down 12 bps to 1.63%. [View news story]
    Me.

    Technicals have looked very poor for the past two weeks. If we break 1400 watch out below.
    Nov 7 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Lower Stock Prices [View article]
    Something people may want to look at on a longer term chart is the rising wedge that has been in place since the bottom in 2009.
    Nov 7 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Lower Stock Prices [View article]
    Far from it but I do not think they will fall as far as people believe.

    It is like the market, I am bearish for a number of technical and fundamental reasons but I do not think we will see a crash.

    Lop 10% off all stock prices and I feel more comfortable being invested.
    Nov 7 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fox, CBS, NBC call the presidential race for incumbent Barack Obama after multiple networks call Ohio for the president. Updated: S&P e-Mini futures look priced in: -0.47%; The dollar -0.47% against euro, -0.41% against Swiss franc. Updated 11:38 p.m: AP calls the race for Obama. S&P futures -0.58%; the dollar -0.41% against euro; -0.2% against pound; -0.39% against Swiss franc. [View news story]
    As a gold and silver investor I could not be happier with the result.
    Nov 7 01:02 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Lower Stock Prices [View article]
    I am happily long gold and silver so no worries here.

    It is hard for me to see the value or growth component in a market where you are paying 16 times earnings for no earnings growth.

    But I do believe there will be some growth as mentioned above. The key is to watch some of the signals like port containers.
    Nov 7 12:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Lower Stock Prices [View article]
    AAPL is one of the few stocks showing growth in the tech sector.

    There is a real split between Apple/Samsung/their suppliers and everyone else.
    Nov 7 12:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • October Nonfarm Payrolls: +171K vs. consensus +125K, Sept. revised to +148K from +114K. Unemployment rate 7.9% vs. consensus 7.9%, 7.8% previous. [View news story]
    Not sure how you get sharply accelerated when corporate earnings are flat and .7 of the 2% was the government juicing spending.

    The 2% was also the first and least accurate number.
    Nov 4 01:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • October Nonfarm Payrolls: +171K vs. consensus +125K, Sept. revised to +148K from +114K. Unemployment rate 7.9% vs. consensus 7.9%, 7.8% previous. [View news story]
    Exactly. Previous recoveries have seen gains in the 400k range which naturally moves the unemployment number down. We have been moving it down with a combination of part-time hires and people dropping out of the workforce.

    People getting part-time jobs are not going to be the ones rushing out to buy new homes. You buy a house when you feel secure about the future and the new trend of generational housing where multiple generations live under one roof is not positive for the economy overall. Instead of three houses spread across the generations you now have one.
    Nov 2 02:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • October Nonfarm Payrolls: +171K vs. consensus +125K, Sept. revised to +148K from +114K. Unemployment rate 7.9% vs. consensus 7.9%, 7.8% previous. [View news story]
    I am not sure how these numbers can be looked at as a recovery when they do not cover the net number of people entering the workforce.
    Nov 2 12:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: -9K to 363K vs. 369K consensus, 369K prior. Continuing claims +4K to 3.26M. [View news story]
    The hiccup is named Sandy.

    Just wait until after the election and all the bad news comes out.

    http://reut.rs/OMccMP
    Nov 1 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The NYSE (NYX) says it's currently expecting to open Wednesday, critical because of its role in providing key opening and closing auctions on the last day of the month. The goal: a normal 9:30-4:00 trading session. The exchange, along with Nasdaq OMX (NDAQ), BATS and Direct Edge, continues to test a backup solution that would route trading through the Arca platform if the floor can't open. [View news story]
    Ride a bike.
    Oct 30 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yamana Gold (AUY): Q3 EPS of $0.24 in-line. Revenue of $612M (+10.3% Y/Y) misses by $9M, generated from the sale of 297K gold equivalent oz. and 37M lbs. of copper, excluding Alumbrera which is accounted for as an equity investment. (PR[View news story]
    Solid earnings.
    Oct 30 03:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet the new math, same as the old math: In an upcoming meeting, the SEC will look at bringing back fractional stock prices - 1/8 and 1/16 ticks, instead of penny pricing. At heart is the power of market makers who used to be accused of improperly raising trading costs. Proponents of going back argue that higher bank profitability from bigger tick sizes will make the environment more welcoming for small companies in their IPOs. [View news story]
    Better yet, get rid of skunk quotes and make quotes sit for at least a minute.
    Oct 28 01:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet the new math, same as the old math: In an upcoming meeting, the SEC will look at bringing back fractional stock prices - 1/8 and 1/16 ticks, instead of penny pricing. At heart is the power of market makers who used to be accused of improperly raising trading costs. Proponents of going back argue that higher bank profitability from bigger tick sizes will make the environment more welcoming for small companies in their IPOs. [View news story]
    I can't stop laughing at the tenuous grasp of IPO pricing to bid sizes.

    It has no bearing on IPO's.

    Private companies are not coming public because they do not trust the capital markets.
    Oct 27 11:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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