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David Urban

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  • More on Q3 GDP: Real personal consumption +2% vs. +1.5% in Q2. Residential fixed investment +14.4% vs. +8.5%. Federal government expenditures +9.6% vs. -0.2%. Real final sales +2.1% vs. +1.7%. Prices +1.5% vs. +0.7%. Quickly rebounding stock index futures are given another boost by the beat, the S&P 500 flat after being down about 1%. [View news story]
    The key takeaway here is that outside of the government sector, which goosed the numbers this quarter, growth at the consumer and corporate levels was weak at beat.

    0% corporate profit recovery is underway.
    Oct 26 05:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: -23K to 369K vs. 372K consensus, 392K prior (revised). Continuing claims -2K to 3.25M[View news story]
    No wonder they forget to report.
    Oct 25 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: -23K to 369K vs. 372K consensus, 392K prior (revised). Continuing claims -2K to 3.25M[View news story]
    They will just take another eraser to the denominator and lower the unemployment rate.
    Oct 25 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The market comes well off its session high as a rumor (of dubious validity) makes the rounds Fitch has plans to downgrade the credit rating of the U.S. S&P 500 +0.2%[View news story]
    If it was dubious why print it?

    All of the credit agencies have warned of downgrades if the Fiscal Cliffs is not properly addressed post-election.

    There are two cliffs:

    1. Budget agreement
    2. Debt Ceiling
    Oct 25 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeff Lacker's down vote today means he's dissented (12 times) from FOMC decisions more often than he's joined the majority (11). He's also on track to dissent at every FOMC meeting this year, a record matched by Thomas Hoenig in 2010. His actions may earn him the ire of his colleagues, but the thumbs-up from those uncomfortable with overwhelming consensus. [View news story]
    Lacker or Fisher should replace Bernanke.
    Oct 24 03:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Existing Home Sales: It's improvement across the board. Annualized sales of 4.75M are up 11% from September 2011. Total inventory fell 3.3% to 2.32M homes, a 5.9 month supply vs. an 8.1 month supply a year ago. Median time on market of 70 days is down from 101 days a year ago. Distressed sales accounted for 24% of transactions, down from 30% a year ago. (full report[View news story]
    Does anyone have these numbers ex-distressed going back 5 or 6 years? I would love to see the numbers without the noise.
    Oct 19 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank of America (BAC): Q3 EPS of $0.00 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $20.4B (-28% Y/Y) misses by $1.5B. (PR[View news story]
    Not very much.

    How much was the debt valuation adjustments?
    Oct 17 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seabridge Gold (SA +1.5%) says assay results at its Courageous Lake gold project in the Northwest Territories have “substantially” increased the size of the high-grade discovery. The Walsh Lake zone now has a strike length of nearly 900 meters; results from another 10 holes drilled in this year's program are expected over the next several weeks. [View news story]
    Seabridge has been pushing this deposit for more than 20 years.

    They have no intention on ever building a mine or making money for shareholders.
    Oct 16 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Citigroup (C): In addition to Pandit's departure, COO John Havens is also stepping down. The board selects Michael Corbat - who previously served as the bank's CEO of Europe, Middle East and Africa - as new Citigroup CEO. Havens had been planning to retire at year's end, but given Pandit's move, decided now was the time. (PR[View news story]
    Boards don't act like that unless there is good reason.
    Oct 16 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Citigroup (C): In addition to Pandit's departure, COO John Havens is also stepping down. The board selects Michael Corbat - who previously served as the bank's CEO of Europe, Middle East and Africa - as new Citigroup CEO. Havens had been planning to retire at year's end, but given Pandit's move, decided now was the time. (PR[View news story]
    The refi boom is nothing that cannot be corrected in a quarter. When two C level employees leave at once there must be a deeper problem.
    Oct 16 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese exports surprise on the upside in September, increasing 9.9% Y/Y to a record $186.4B vs. consensus of +5% and +2.7% in August. Imports +2.4% vs. -2.6% in August and forecasts of +2%. Trade surplus +3.6% M/M to $27.67B vs. expectations of $22.4B. However, Citigroup economist Ding Shuang cautions that weak economic conditions in the U.S. and EU raise uncertainties for Chinese trade. [View news story]
    This is not that surprising. The numbers from the last few months were weak and indicated weak holiday orders from retailers.

    However, this data is out of China and not the HSBC survey. The next step will be to verify this through the container data at the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles.

    For the last couple of months empty containers leaving to be filled in Asia have been dropping slightly.
    Oct 14 02:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The natural gas rig count declined again last week, falling by 15 to 422 vs. 936 a year ago. The number of working gas rigs is the lowest since June 1999, but this may not mean a supply crunch is coming as oil rig activity - which yields plenty of natural gas - remains strong. Still, it's hard not to notice the correlation between collapsing gas rig counts and natural gas prices up about 90% in 6 months. [View news story]
    No chance at a shortage. Rigs counts are a poor indicator of a shortage when you should be looking at storage rates.
    Oct 12 05:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The equity financing window for Canadian miners has opened up a little after a long dry spell, with more than $1.5B announced or completed since the start of September vs. just $2.8B in the first eight months of this year. But the window is only open to a select few; nearly all miners raising money in recent weeks are in production or have advanced projects with well-defined resources. [View news story]
    Quick thoughts on Grand Columbia Gold. Nice projects and assets, high costs (not good), would prefer the gold and silver linked notes over the common stock.
    Oct 12 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The equity financing window for Canadian miners has opened up a little after a long dry spell, with more than $1.5B announced or completed since the start of September vs. just $2.8B in the first eight months of this year. But the window is only open to a select few; nearly all miners raising money in recent weeks are in production or have advanced projects with well-defined resources. [View news story]
    Hold on I will give a quick look. Columbia has been a hot region for the last few months but a number of stocks have been whalloped by boiler rooms pushing down prices.

    Had a skunk bid hit yesterday because of it on one junior I love.
    Oct 12 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The equity financing window for Canadian miners has opened up a little after a long dry spell, with more than $1.5B announced or completed since the start of September vs. just $2.8B in the first eight months of this year. But the window is only open to a select few; nearly all miners raising money in recent weeks are in production or have advanced projects with well-defined resources. [View news story]
    I should break down GDXJ sometime.

    Junior exploration firms are off the radar here or this site would be full of nuggets. It is a tough sector to navigate and it takes time, patience, and luck.
    Oct 12 03:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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