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David Urban

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  • Initial Jobless Claims: -23K to 369K vs. 372K consensus, 392K prior (revised). Continuing claims -2K to 3.25M[View news story]
    They will just take another eraser to the denominator and lower the unemployment rate.
    Oct 25 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The market comes well off its session high as a rumor (of dubious validity) makes the rounds Fitch has plans to downgrade the credit rating of the U.S. S&P 500 +0.2%[View news story]
    If it was dubious why print it?

    All of the credit agencies have warned of downgrades if the Fiscal Cliffs is not properly addressed post-election.

    There are two cliffs:

    1. Budget agreement
    2. Debt Ceiling
    Oct 25 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeff Lacker's down vote today means he's dissented (12 times) from FOMC decisions more often than he's joined the majority (11). He's also on track to dissent at every FOMC meeting this year, a record matched by Thomas Hoenig in 2010. His actions may earn him the ire of his colleagues, but the thumbs-up from those uncomfortable with overwhelming consensus. [View news story]
    Lacker or Fisher should replace Bernanke.
    Oct 24 03:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Existing Home Sales: It's improvement across the board. Annualized sales of 4.75M are up 11% from September 2011. Total inventory fell 3.3% to 2.32M homes, a 5.9 month supply vs. an 8.1 month supply a year ago. Median time on market of 70 days is down from 101 days a year ago. Distressed sales accounted for 24% of transactions, down from 30% a year ago. (full report[View news story]
    Does anyone have these numbers ex-distressed going back 5 or 6 years? I would love to see the numbers without the noise.
    Oct 19 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank of America (BAC): Q3 EPS of $0.00 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $20.4B (-28% Y/Y) misses by $1.5B. (PR[View news story]
    Not very much.

    How much was the debt valuation adjustments?
    Oct 17 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seabridge Gold (SA +1.5%) says assay results at its Courageous Lake gold project in the Northwest Territories have “substantially” increased the size of the high-grade discovery. The Walsh Lake zone now has a strike length of nearly 900 meters; results from another 10 holes drilled in this year's program are expected over the next several weeks. [View news story]
    Seabridge has been pushing this deposit for more than 20 years.

    They have no intention on ever building a mine or making money for shareholders.
    Oct 16 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Citigroup (C): In addition to Pandit's departure, COO John Havens is also stepping down. The board selects Michael Corbat - who previously served as the bank's CEO of Europe, Middle East and Africa - as new Citigroup CEO. Havens had been planning to retire at year's end, but given Pandit's move, decided now was the time. (PR[View news story]
    Boards don't act like that unless there is good reason.
    Oct 16 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Citigroup (C): In addition to Pandit's departure, COO John Havens is also stepping down. The board selects Michael Corbat - who previously served as the bank's CEO of Europe, Middle East and Africa - as new Citigroup CEO. Havens had been planning to retire at year's end, but given Pandit's move, decided now was the time. (PR[View news story]
    The refi boom is nothing that cannot be corrected in a quarter. When two C level employees leave at once there must be a deeper problem.
    Oct 16 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese exports surprise on the upside in September, increasing 9.9% Y/Y to a record $186.4B vs. consensus of +5% and +2.7% in August. Imports +2.4% vs. -2.6% in August and forecasts of +2%. Trade surplus +3.6% M/M to $27.67B vs. expectations of $22.4B. However, Citigroup economist Ding Shuang cautions that weak economic conditions in the U.S. and EU raise uncertainties for Chinese trade. [View news story]
    This is not that surprising. The numbers from the last few months were weak and indicated weak holiday orders from retailers.

    However, this data is out of China and not the HSBC survey. The next step will be to verify this through the container data at the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles.

    For the last couple of months empty containers leaving to be filled in Asia have been dropping slightly.
    Oct 14 02:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The natural gas rig count declined again last week, falling by 15 to 422 vs. 936 a year ago. The number of working gas rigs is the lowest since June 1999, but this may not mean a supply crunch is coming as oil rig activity - which yields plenty of natural gas - remains strong. Still, it's hard not to notice the correlation between collapsing gas rig counts and natural gas prices up about 90% in 6 months. [View news story]
    No chance at a shortage. Rigs counts are a poor indicator of a shortage when you should be looking at storage rates.
    Oct 12 05:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The equity financing window for Canadian miners has opened up a little after a long dry spell, with more than $1.5B announced or completed since the start of September vs. just $2.8B in the first eight months of this year. But the window is only open to a select few; nearly all miners raising money in recent weeks are in production or have advanced projects with well-defined resources. [View news story]
    Quick thoughts on Grand Columbia Gold. Nice projects and assets, high costs (not good), would prefer the gold and silver linked notes over the common stock.
    Oct 12 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The equity financing window for Canadian miners has opened up a little after a long dry spell, with more than $1.5B announced or completed since the start of September vs. just $2.8B in the first eight months of this year. But the window is only open to a select few; nearly all miners raising money in recent weeks are in production or have advanced projects with well-defined resources. [View news story]
    Hold on I will give a quick look. Columbia has been a hot region for the last few months but a number of stocks have been whalloped by boiler rooms pushing down prices.

    Had a skunk bid hit yesterday because of it on one junior I love.
    Oct 12 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The equity financing window for Canadian miners has opened up a little after a long dry spell, with more than $1.5B announced or completed since the start of September vs. just $2.8B in the first eight months of this year. But the window is only open to a select few; nearly all miners raising money in recent weeks are in production or have advanced projects with well-defined resources. [View news story]
    I should break down GDXJ sometime.

    Junior exploration firms are off the radar here or this site would be full of nuggets. It is a tough sector to navigate and it takes time, patience, and luck.
    Oct 12 03:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The equity financing window for Canadian miners has opened up a little after a long dry spell, with more than $1.5B announced or completed since the start of September vs. just $2.8B in the first eight months of this year. But the window is only open to a select few; nearly all miners raising money in recent weeks are in production or have advanced projects with well-defined resources. [View news story]
    It has opened up down at the exploration level as well. You have to have a quality project with strong potential. The last year has been about separating the wheat from the chaff.

    Good juniors are attracting funds right now.
    Oct 11 09:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. is heading towards fiscal disaster and no one in Washington is doing anything about it, warns a trio of experts. Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson - authors the Simpson-Bowles reform plan - along with Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein are concerned that investors are putting way too much faith in Congress and the White House to work out a deal. Those people are just "whistling around the market" right now, and they're likely to get creamed, Simpson notes. "They really believe honestly that no Congress could be this stupid, and by God, they can.” [View news story]
    The 2010 tax code was over 71,684 pages.

    Let that sink in for a moment.

    Then ask yourself if we should start with serious tax reform that cuts that down by at least 95%.
    Oct 11 09:18 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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