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David Urban

 
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  • Online sales jumped 24.3% this Black Friday. Department stores led the way with a 59% jump in online sales. Stronger than expected demand suggests there may be a disconnect between what consumers tell pollsters and how they actually spend.  [View news story]
    I would say that what we are really seeing is December sales being pulled forward into November.
    Nov 26 02:57 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There's no buy the rumor, sell the news action today as stocks soar following Draghi's expected official announcement of a new ECB bond purchase program. Less noticed, but also of great interest was a big beat from the ADP jobs report. S&P 500 +1.3%, Germany's Dax +2.5%, Spain's IBEX 35 +3.9%, Italy's MIB +3.9%[View news story]
    Do we give this rally one or two days before it fails?
    Sep 6 10:08 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold gets a downgrade at Goldman Sachs, the firm lowering its 2013 end-of-year price forecast to $1,800/oz., and 2014 to $1,750. "We see growing downside risks ... the gold outlook is caught between the opposing forces of more Fed easing and a gradual increase in U.S. real rates on better U.S. economic growth." [View news story]
    This is as clear of a buy signal as it gets.
    Dec 5 09:14 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • June Nonfarm Payrolls: +80K vs. consensus +100K, prior +77K (revised from 69K). Unemployment rate 8.2% vs. consensus 8.2%, 8.2% previous.  [View news story]
    You do realize that at this jobs growth rate more people are entering the workforce than jobs are being created? Not sure how that is moving forward.
    Jul 6 09:59 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exit polls in Greece show the 2 pro-bailout parties garnering just 32-36% of the vote, maybe not enough to form a majority government. It's a shocking fall for Pasok and New Democracy, which together claimed nearly 80% of the vote in 2009. "The exit polls confirm ... there's no political consensus for the kind of reforms Greece must implement if it wants to remain in the eurozone," says Nicholas Spiro.  [View news story]
    Europe's problem is not the austerity programs but the inability to correct structural imbalances.

    Ask yourself if Greece has corrected any of their lax tax collection efforts or other structural imbalances within the economy.

    If we try to change to a growth track without correcting the underlying structural problems watch out for gold. That may be the catalyst for the next leg up.

    The LTRO program has done nothing but allow the banks to get 1% loans and cycle the money right into sovereign debt. The money is not making it into the private sector.
    May 6 07:32 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Based on current readings of the time-honored - yet terribly flawed - Fed Model, the market is a "screaming buy," insists market strategist David Kelly. At present levels, bonds are yielding nearly 7 percentage points less than stocks. This is the widest the spread has been in favor of stocks since the 1950s. “It’s bordering on insanity,” he says.  [View news story]
    When yields in the bond market are manipulated through government buying the Fed model becomes useless.
    Sep 20 08:34 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's been one month since the S&P 500 hit bear market territory and rallied hard. Since then, market pundits have done an about-face, aggressively distancing themselves from any inkling of bearish sentiment. From a contrarian perspective, this behavior suggests another bear-market rally, says Mark Hulbert. Add to the mix the excessively bullish exposure of short-term market timers and it gets even more ominous. So, Hulbert says, "if it looks like a bear market rally, and smells like a bear market rally, then... ?"  [View news story]
    The market is not discounting the weak numbers coming out of China, Germany, France, and the US.

    I see weak demand. We may escape this quarter because of the holidays but it is going to be rough without some significant resolution on the political fronts.
    Nov 4 07:39 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • August Nonfarm Payrolls: +96K vs. consensus +125K, prior +141K (revised from 163K). Unemployment rate 8.1% vs. consensus 8.3%, 8.3% previous. [View news story]
    Not many older workers are retiring. CD and bond rates at zero from Bernanke's War on Savers is eating away at people's retirement plans.
    Sep 7 09:46 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why low volume actually is bullish, according to Ryan Detrick: Total-dollar volume is higher now than in the 2003-07 bull market, so how can bears say lower share volume is bearish? "As long as volume stays low and bears use it as ammunition for lower prices, just smile and nod your head, knowing this isn't true." [View news story]
    I would be more concerned with the amount of manipulation that is going in the market across many asset classes.
    Aug 18 12:27 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Those jobs aren't coming back," said Steve Jobs to the President, who asked what it would take to bring Apple's production to the U.S. It's not just low wages, Chinese manufacturing infrastructure has grown to remarkable size and sophistication. Apple's contribution to U.S. employment will be through its stores, its empowerment of entrepreneurs, and jobs at cellular providers and shippers, but not the actual building of its products.  [View news story]
    Spot on wyostocks.

    If Apple moved manufacturing back to the US there would be unions lining up at the door to ramp janitor salaries up to $25 per hour with 4 weeks vacation after a year while local politicians seek to grease their palms with kickbacks in order to get the factory.

    The US put itself in this position by creating an anti-business environment in manufacturing and elsewhere over the last 30 years.
    Jan 22 12:55 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barring an unforeseen miracle, Congress' supercommittee will concede tomorrow it has failed in its efforts to produce $1.2T in deficit cuts. With even a fig-leaf deal now unlikely, talks are focused on "how to shut this turkey down."  [View news story]
    At least we can thank Congress for making pizza a vegetable.

    Nice to know our priorities are in order.
    Nov 20 03:04 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Obama administration privately urged S&P for weeks not to lower its outlook on U.S. debt, the Washington Post reports. S&P analysts told Treasury officials last Friday that they were unmoved by arguments that the debt was manageable and Obama had a viable plan in the works.  [View news story]
    Washington DC has become a significant risk to investors portfolios.

    I believe that we have one final push higher and investors should review their stocks and hedge accordingly.
    Apr 20 02:55 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • September Nonfarm Payrolls: +114K vs. consensus +115K, +142K previous (revised from 96K). Unemployment rate 7.8% vs. consensus 8.2%, 8.1% previous. [View news story]
    If only these numbers were based in reality.

    I guess if we keep taking an eraser to the denominator the unemployment rate will be down to 5% in no time at all.
    Oct 5 09:11 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: "The rally that no one’s really enjoyed" continued as stocks capped a sixth straight positive week with modest gains following better than expected readings on consumer sentiment and leading indicators. Apple powered to its all-time high closing price, while Facebook touched new lows. Advancers topped decliners on the NYSE by more than three to two. [View news story]
    The amount of manipulation in the market right now is frightening.
    Aug 17 04:23 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold 'Believers' Appear Distraught Over Dollar Strength [View article]
    Looks to me since 2000 the price of gold is going up while the price of stocks are going lower.

    You do realize that you are using a 40 year chart and comparing it against a 140 year chart?

    The proof is that both have value and create wealth and both run in cycles. Look back over the market and those times when stock prices are falling on an inflation adjusted basis gold rises and vice versa.

    Currently, we are in the inflationary gold rising, stocks falling phase.
    Sep 23 08:36 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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