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David Urban  

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  • The Fed releases its stress test results: "Despite large hypothetical declines, the post-stress test capital level ... of 15 of the 19 bank holding companies were estimated ... above all 4 of the regulatory minimum levels ... even after considering the proposed capital actions, such as dividend increases or share buybacks."  [View news story]
    I like that there was a module dealing with a shock from Europe but I cannot find those specific numbers anywhere in the report.
    Mar 14, 2012. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed releases its stress test results: "Despite large hypothetical declines, the post-stress test capital level ... of 15 of the 19 bank holding companies were estimated ... above all 4 of the regulatory minimum levels ... even after considering the proposed capital actions, such as dividend increases or share buybacks."  [View news story]
    They probably have a grandfathered banking license from way back in their history similar to how AIG was regulated as an S&L back in 2008.
    Mar 14, 2012. 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup (C) may emerge the surprise winner when the Federal Reserve reveals the results of its bank stress tests on Thursday, which could include a dividend boost to its shareholders. Although analysts generally expect banks to pass the tests, investors will be closely watching how generous the Fed is in allowing banks to increase dividends and repurchase shares.  [View news story]
    I am impressed that they included a module representing a shock emanating from Europe.

    Unfortunately, I cannot find the results.
    Mar 13, 2012. 10:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup (C) may emerge the surprise winner when the Federal Reserve reveals the results of its bank stress tests on Thursday, which could include a dividend boost to its shareholders. Although analysts generally expect banks to pass the tests, investors will be closely watching how generous the Fed is in allowing banks to increase dividends and repurchase shares.  [View news story]
    I would hold off on annointing C a winner here.

    Citigroup, SunTrust Banks Capital Plans Fail Fed Stress Tests

    http://bloom.bg/xEiT89
    Mar 13, 2012. 09:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed releases its stress test results: "Despite large hypothetical declines, the post-stress test capital level ... of 15 of the 19 bank holding companies were estimated ... above all 4 of the regulatory minimum levels ... even after considering the proposed capital actions, such as dividend increases or share buybacks."  [View news story]
    Ally is an arm of GM.
    Mar 13, 2012. 05:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed releases its stress test results: "Despite large hypothetical declines, the post-stress test capital level ... of 15 of the 19 bank holding companies were estimated ... above all 4 of the regulatory minimum levels ... even after considering the proposed capital actions, such as dividend increases or share buybacks."  [View news story]
    But did it test for a sovereign default and multiple bank failures in Europe?

    I ask because Austria is bailing out their banking sector.

    http://bloom.bg/yR2vWp
    Mar 13, 2012. 05:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank of America (BAC +4.6%) has passed the Fed's stress test as well, say sources, but has not requested to do a buyback or increase its dividend, reports the WSJ. (earlier)  [View news story]
    I want to peer into their looking glass.

    Did they test for a European sovereign default or bank failure (and ensuing debt writedowns) by a major institution in Europe or are we going on the assumption that the Fed will just increase swap lines?
    Mar 13, 2012. 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank of America (BAC +4.6%) has passed the Fed's stress test as well, say sources, but has not requested to do a buyback or increase its dividend, reports the WSJ. (earlier)  [View news story]
    The fact they are not speaks volumes.
    Mar 13, 2012. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Other bank stocks react to JPMorgan (JPM) receiving Fed permission to return capital to shareholders: C +6.4%, BAC +4.6%, WFC +4.9%, MS +4.5%, GS +6.2%. Financials ETF: XLF +3.6%.  [View news story]
    BAC?
    Mar 13, 2012. 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup (C) may emerge the surprise winner when the Federal Reserve reveals the results of its bank stress tests on Thursday, which could include a dividend boost to its shareholders. Although analysts generally expect banks to pass the tests, investors will be closely watching how generous the Fed is in allowing banks to increase dividends and repurchase shares.  [View news story]
    Axios, I could not agree more about BAC. That shift made me nervous along with talk that Merrill teams are jumping with their books.

    I will feel more comfortable with the banks when I feel comfortable with peering into their black boxes.

    i.e. When I see earnings growth without using accounting gimmicks.
    Mar 12, 2012. 11:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup (C) may emerge the surprise winner when the Federal Reserve reveals the results of its bank stress tests on Thursday, which could include a dividend boost to its shareholders. Although analysts generally expect banks to pass the tests, investors will be closely watching how generous the Fed is in allowing banks to increase dividends and repurchase shares.  [View news story]
    If this is anything like the European stress tests being on top is a very bad sign.
    Mar 12, 2012. 07:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It appears likely that Portugal will be the next to restructure its debt and exit the euro zone, says economist Nouriel Roubini. Greece should be gone by next year, and with several other euro-zone countries in trouble, including Italy and Spain, Roubini sees Portugal as the weakest and next to fall.  [View news story]
    The bailout of Greece has literally opened a Pandora's Box for the EU. We should see Portugal and Spain lining up in short order despite the proclamations that Greece is a special situation.

    Portugal is better off but one has to wonder how much longer the population is willing to wait for austerity programs to wind their way through the economy and economic growth to return.

    Spain needs job creation in the absolute worst way.

    Then we have the black swans, Hungary and Austria.

    Hungary recently responded to the EU's lawsuit over their anti-EU laws with a 100 page rebuttal. Both sides are not being friendly.

    Austria has bailed out two banks so far and look ready to add a third.

    In terms of a pullback, I do not think we will see a crash but a 10-15% pullback is not out of the question through the end of June. After that I think we rattle around like last year.
    Mar 12, 2012. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It appears likely that Portugal will be the next to restructure its debt and exit the euro zone, says economist Nouriel Roubini. Greece should be gone by next year, and with several other euro-zone countries in trouble, including Italy and Spain, Roubini sees Portugal as the weakest and next to fall.  [View news story]
    The short end of the curve has been so manipulated keeping rates at or near 0 that any marginal selling (most of the funds came from interest and principal repayments so there was very little selling) would not affect rates.

    The long end is being pushed lower but unfortunately nobody is borrowing.

    The banks have taken any money borrowed and just stashed it in cash. They are not moving the currency through the system like expected to it is just sitting on balance sheets.

    The point of the link was to show how the US is now a defacto creditor of Europe and the European banks.
    Mar 11, 2012. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It appears likely that Portugal will be the next to restructure its debt and exit the euro zone, says economist Nouriel Roubini. Greece should be gone by next year, and with several other euro-zone countries in trouble, including Italy and Spain, Roubini sees Portugal as the weakest and next to fall.  [View news story]
    Twist is QE3 because the intent is to lower long-term interest rates and force more money through the system.

    Once can also point to the coordinated swap move as QE since it puts the US on the hook and bails out the European banks.

    Here is a good explanation of the swaps:

    http://bit.ly/wqB684
    Mar 11, 2012. 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It appears likely that Portugal will be the next to restructure its debt and exit the euro zone, says economist Nouriel Roubini. Greece should be gone by next year, and with several other euro-zone countries in trouble, including Italy and Spain, Roubini sees Portugal as the weakest and next to fall.  [View news story]
    It may be smaller but the key is who holds the debt and who gets caught in the eventual restructuring.

    A writedown by any pension plans or banks could push either one into receivership.

    This is why the private sector bore the brunt of the restructuring and the pension funds were left out.
    Mar 11, 2012. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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