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David Urban

 
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  • The Market Stands On Edge [View article]
    I agree. Debt has become a drug of sorts for the markets. It is the nlysolution being offered up while I continue to ask myself, what is the exit strategy?
    Jul 2 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Are Europeans Not Rushing To Gold? [View article]
    They have reduced their gold purchases but that can be pinned on a government that has made some very odd proclamations regarding gold this year.

    There are rumors floating now that the government will restrict Indian banks ability to sell gold to the general public.
    Jun 30 12:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The Coming Rally [View article]
    I think we will get some sort of QE but not until after the election unless there is a major crisis between now and then.

    Any movement by Bernanke will be looked at as political and I doubt he wants to deal with that backlash.
    Jun 26 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The World Is An Ugly Place [View article]
    But once again, what are the growth factors for 2% GDP growth?

    Employment growth is stalling, retail sales across Europe are falling, PMI's in Europe and China are below 50. I just do not see where the growth is coming from.

    You can massage figures all day but important indicators are calling for a recession.

    Take the last HSBC Flash PMI as an example:

    New Export Orders - contraction, faster rate
    Stocks of Finished Goods - Expansion, faster rate

    Those two speak volumes about future GDP growth.
    Jun 24 06:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The World Is An Ugly Place [View article]
    The ECRI has not made a failed forecast. The official declaration of a recession does not come until way after it has started.

    Remember when the 2008 recession was called after the election and back dated to the start of 2008 when everyone knew we are in a recession?

    In order for us to avoid a double dip there has to be some consumer power behind the data which means either rising salaries (not likely in a deflationary scenario) or significant employment growth (not happening). We are just barely covering the new entrants to the workforce and the Fed continues to lower their growth and employment forecasts.

    For manufacturing to power the economy we have to be selling our goods somewhere but with retail sales dropping sharply in Europe and China cutting coal orders (important as this is a power input which leads back to demand) to whom are we selling?

    As economic growth is slowing what is the growth generator that you see driving the global economy?
    Jun 24 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The World Is An Ugly Place [View article]
    My apologies to your work but I will take the ECRI data to be more meaningful.

    With Europe in a recession, China showing signs of a recession, and our data likely artificially boosted due to the election I believe what I see not what I read.

    sprott.com and click on Markets at a Glance - Ministry on [Un]Truth
    Jun 24 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The World Is An Ugly Place [View article]
    The problem with your scenario is that we would need additional profit growth to support higher valuations and a sustained rally.

    In the last few weeks Philip Morris, Proctor & Gamble, Fedex, Nucor, and McDonalds have all warned. This should be a warning sign to investors.
    Jun 24 02:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The World Is An Ugly Place [View article]
    Sorry, I could not make out the relevant information from your link. The site needs a revamp.

    If manufacturing is so small then why is the 2nd Q GDP estimate below 2% and why is Europe on the verge of a recession?
    Jun 24 02:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yamana Gold Snaps Up An Attractive Asset In Extorre Gold [View article]
    The nationalization of YPF was more a power grab by the Argentine government against the Spanish government rather than anything mining related.

    Shortly after the nationalization, the Bolivian government nationalized the company that is the majority owner of the Bolivian power grid. Ironically, the company is Spanish as well.

    Argentina needs the FDI from mining. They are not going to touch that sector. They are in enough hot water with Great Britain and Europe, no need to extend that to North America.
    Jun 20 05:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed lowers its GDP growth forecasts for 2012 to 1.9%-2.4%, backing off its April expectations of GDP growth of 2.4%-2.9%. New unemployment rate expected at 8.0%-8.2% through 2012, and 7.0%-7.7% through 2014.  [View news story]
    Still too high on the economic growth path.
    Jun 20 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Open Market Committee: Operation Twist is extended through the end of the year adding $267B to the total purchased. The Fed is prepared to take additional steps as necessary. Richmond Fed President Lacker dissents, opposing the extension of the Twist.  [View news story]
    All I see is pushing on a string.
    Jun 20 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yamana Gold Snaps Up An Attractive Asset In Extorre Gold [View article]
    Thank you. I am going to be publishing a much more in depth look at the gold market and stocks in the coming months. Information will be in my profile and on my website.
    Jun 20 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Breathes A Sigh Of Relief [View article]
    Relief based on the fact that markets can go back to being a little silly with earnings and they got the European outcome they expected.

    That said, the world is still a mess and we need to reassess where we stand in the markets.
    Jun 18 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Breathes A Sigh Of Relief [View article]
    For the time being. Once earnings season is over and we realize that the earnings bar was just laid on the floor things will change.

    Watch that 2nd q GDP number.
    Jun 18 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Extorre Gold Mines (XG) +54% premarket after agreeing to be acquired by Yamana Gold (AUY) for ~C$414M, or C$4.26/share in cash and stock, a 68% premium to Friday's closing price in Toronto. AUY says the "tuck-in" acquisition fits its criteria, including "opportunity for organic growth, accelerated path to development and production, and high return."  [View news story]
    Cannot like this enough.
    Jun 18 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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