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David Urban
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A true investing contrarian with more than a decade's experience in the financial markets. I review a variety of sectors with both long and short ideas. @dcurban1 Blog address: http://www.atruecontrarian.com/ The top gold and silver analyst on Seeking Alpha. One of the few that does the hard... More
My blog:
A contrarian investor with a global macro view.
My book:
The 2012 Investment Forecast
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  • 4th Quarter Investment and Recommended List Thoughts

     

     

     

    The low for the year appears to be in and we are in a Presidential Cycle rally which should eventually take us back to the highs made earlier this year.

     

    However, we are into October which is well known for the two previous crashes and not a generally positive month overall. October is one of the worst performing months for Gold so investors looking to add to Gold and Silver positions would be well advised to look for a buying opportunity as it comes becomes available this month.

     

    For equities, it appears as though we are making a short-term top formation as worries are beginning to appear over not just third quarter earnings but the fourth quarter as well.

     

    In addition, we have the unemployment rate on Friday along with 3rd Quarter GDP at the end of the month. Initial estimates have the GDP number coming in under 2% but we may just see a little boost given to the number, which has been the case over the past few quarters, only to see about a percent taken off in the revisions.

     

    Investors would be well served to continue to follow the guidepost I put up at the beginning of the year focusing on blue chip stocks with solid dividends. Large institutions are just beginning to jump back on the dividend bandwagon and small investors would be well served to get aboard first.

     

    With corporate balance sheets flush with cash we are likely to see a push for increased corporate stock buybacks and dividend increases along with increased M&A activity.

     

    In terms of my recommended list, I like a number of global firms.

     

    In Asia I am bullish on agriculture, banking, and stocks connected to automobile makers but not the automobile makers themselves.

     

    In Europe, there are a number of interesting stocks in Greece which have no connection to the sovereign problems with strong dividend yields and are basing at the present time.

     

    The German industrial machine is of particular interest with export demand showing signs of strength.

     

    In North America, I like banks not in the US and oil and gas stocks with strong dividend yields.

     

    Gold and Silver bullion is attractive while the best values in the mining industry continue to be at the exploration level rather than the development or production levels.

     

    Defensive stocks with solid dividend yields will provide excellent value over the final quarter into next year.

     

    You can contact me further details on the recommended list.

     

     

    Disclaimer
    Communications are intended solely for informational purposes. Statements made should not be construed as an endorsement, either expressed or implied. This article and the author is not responsible for typographic errors or other inaccuracies in the content. This article may not be reproduced without credit or permission from the author. We believe the information contained herein to be accurate and reliable. However, errors may occasionally occur. Therefore, all information and materials are provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. Past results are not indicative of future results.
    PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN THE STOCK, BOND, AND DERIVATIVE MARKETS. WHEN CONSIDERING ANY TYPE OF INVESTMENT, INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS: OFTEN ENGAGE IN LEVERAGING AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES THAT MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS, CAN BE ILLIQUID, ARE NOT REQUIRED TO PROVIDE PERIODIC PRICING OR VALUATION INFORMATION TO INVESTORS, MAY INVOLVE COMPLEX TAX STRUCTURES AND DELAYS IN DISTRIBUTING IMPORTANT TAX INFORMATION, ARE NOT SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

    Before making any type of investment, one should consult with an investment professional to consider whether the investment is appropriate for the individuals risk profile. This is not intended to be investment advice or a solicitation to purchase any of the securities listed here. I will not be held liable or responsible for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result from the content of this article.

     

     



    Disclosure: No positions
    Oct 07 3:54 PM | Link | Comment!
  • FOMC Statement Commentary – Move along not much to see here.

     

     

    The September statement was a much shortened version of the August statement as it appears the FOMC committee has accepted the fact that the recovery will be slower than expected.

     

    The new policy of reinvesting MBS principal payments into Treasury securities will continue for the foreseeable future.

     

    Call it QE2 or call it shifting assets it appears as though the Federal Reserve's strategy is not to shrink the balance sheet but to maintain size while it moves from the MBS market to the Treasury market. The strategy being employed is a bit dangerous, not in the near term, but in the distant future.

     

    Currently, it is a net positive that the Federal Reserve is shifting operations from one area of the bond market to another as the invisible hand becomes less active within the market returning it to a sense of normalcy.

     

    Mr. Hoenig was once again the dissenting voice and lone hawk believing that current policy was far too loose and that the Federal Reserve should shrink the size of its balance sheet rather than continue to reinvest proceeds of principal payments into Treasury securities.

     

     

     

     

    Disclaimer
    Communications are intended solely for informational purposes. Statements made should not be construed as an endorsement, either expressed or implied. This article and the author is not responsible for typographic errors or other inaccuracies in the content. This article may not be reproduced without credit or permission from the author. We believe the information contained herein to be accurate and reliable. However, errors may occasionally occur. Therefore, all information and materials are provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. Past results are not indicative of future results.
    PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN THE STOCK, BOND, AND DERIVATIVE MARKETS. WHEN CONSIDERING ANY TYPE OF INVESTMENT, INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS: OFTEN ENGAGE IN LEVERAGING AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES THAT MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS, CAN BE ILLIQUID, ARE NOT REQUIRED TO PROVIDE PERIODIC PRICING OR VALUATION INFORMATION TO INVESTORS, MAY INVOLVE COMPLEX TAX STRUCTURES AND DELAYS IN DISTRIBUTING IMPORTANT TAX INFORMATION, ARE NOT SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

    Before making any type of investment, one should consult with an investment professional to consider whether the investment is appropriate for the individuals risk profile. This is not intended to be investment advice or a solicitation to purchase any of the securities listed here. I will not be held liable or responsible for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result from the content of this article.

     

     



    Disclosure: No positions
    Sep 21 3:13 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Week in Review – September 17, 2010

     

     

    By David Urban

    dcurb.wordpress.com

     

    Traders returned from vacation this week and reminisced about the Labor Day vacation. It appears as though everyone is waiting to read Tuesday's FOMC statement.

     

    See the news articles below for the most interesting part of the week, which should tell you that we are near a top in bond markets globally.

     

    The State Bank of India raised its repo rate by 25 basis points to 6% and reverse repo rate 50 basis points to 5%.

     

    <a href='www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-10/gold-r...;Bangladesh buy 10 tonnes of IMF Gold. Total Gold sales through July is 88.3 tonnes. </a>

     

     

    In January, the IMF stated its intention to sell the remaining 191.3 tonnes of Gold on its balance sheet. This would mean that as of the end of July, the IMF was selling approximately 18 tonnes of Gold per month into the market. This would put us on course to complete the Gold sales in January of next year.

     

     

    <a href='www.chinapost.com.tw/business/asia/asia-...;China issued 50 year bonds this week.</a>

     

    <a href='www.xe.com/news/2010/09/17/1402677.htm?c...;t='>Thailand is considering a 50 year bond issue for later this year/early 2011.</a>

     

    As the quarter draws to a close I will start talking about sectors and themes which I believe will outperform as 2010 draws to a close.

     

    Just because I am down on banking and housing stocks does not mean I am down on the financial sector. There are a number of attractive stocks and areas which should outperform in the coming months.

     

    Next Week

     

    Monday – Japan Leading Economic Indicators

     

    Tuesday – FOMC Meeting,

     

    Wednesday – Bank of England minutes released

     

    Thursday – US Leading Economic Indicators

     

    Friday – US Durable Goods

     

     

    Disclaimer

    Communications are intended solely for informational purposes. Statements made should not be construed as an endorsement, either expressed or implied. This article and the author is not responsible for typographic errors or other inaccuracies in the content. This article may not be reproduced without credit or permission from the author. We believe the information contained herein to be accurate and reliable. However, errors may occasionally occur. Therefore, all information and materials are provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. Past results are not indicative of future results.

    PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN THE STOCK, BOND, AND DERIVATIVE MARKETS. WHEN CONSIDERING ANY TYPE OF INVESTMENT, INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS: OFTEN ENGAGE IN LEVERAGING AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES THAT MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS, CAN BE ILLIQUID, ARE NOT REQUIRED TO PROVIDE PERIODIC PRICING OR VALUATION INFORMATION TO INVESTORS, MAY INVOLVE COMPLEX TAX STRUCTURES AND DELAYS IN DISTRIBUTING IMPORTANT TAX INFORMATION, ARE NOT SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

    Before making any type of investment, one should consult with an investment professional to consider whether the investment is appropriate for the individuals risk profile. This is not intended to be investment advice or a solicitation to purchase any of the securities listed here. I will not be held liable or responsible for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result from the content of this article.

     



    Disclosure: Long gold bullion
    Tags: GLD, DGP
    Sep 18 6:19 PM | Link | Comment!
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