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David Urban
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A true investing contrarian with more than a decade's experience in the financial markets. I review a variety of sectors with both long and short ideas. @dcurban1 Blog address: http://www.atruecontrarian.com/ The top gold and silver analyst on Seeking Alpha. One of the few that does the hard... More
My blog:
A contrarian investor with a global macro view.
My book:
The 2012 Investment Forecast
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  • Gold and Silver Thoughts – September 9, 2010

     

     

    Gold – We are at a very important juncture with respect to Gold. Since the market crash in 2008 Gold has been in a solid uptrend and spent a good portion of the last 9 months tracing out a cup and handle pattern.

     

    Within the cup and handle pattern is an equally impressive wedge pattern. Given the overbought technical indicators in the short-term charts we may see a bit of a pullback here with 1185 as a bottom but we are likely to see buyers jump in around the 50 day moving average at 1210.

     

    The second Gold chart speaks for itself as to where we have come from, the trend channel, and where we are headed.

     

    Investors should keep a sharp eye on the Gold chart ready to allocate capital as this buying opportunity emerges.

    Gold chart 1 year daily


    Gold Long Term monthly chart

    Silver – The short-term charts for Silver are overbought and we are likely to see a bit of a correction here before the next move higher to test the 2008 highs around $21. We have had a nice run from the 2008 lows and have spent the better portion of a year making a base to prepare for the next move higher.

     

    Again, investors should prepare some capital and have it ready to allocate. A move above $20 will take us to the next resistance level in the $21 area and from there up into the $20's.

    Silver

     

     

    Disclaimer
    Communications are intended solely for informational purposes. Statements made should not be construed as an endorsement, either expressed or implied. This article and the author is not responsible for typographic errors or other inaccuracies in the content. This article may not be reproduced without credit or permission from the author. We believe the information contained herein to be accurate and reliable. However, errors may occasionally occur. Therefore, all information and materials are provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. Past results are not indicative of future results.
    PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN THE STOCK, BOND, AND DERIVATIVE MARKETS. WHEN CONSIDERING ANY TYPE OF INVESTMENT, INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS: OFTEN ENGAGE IN LEVERAGING AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES THAT MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS, CAN BE ILLIQUID, ARE NOT REQUIRED TO PROVIDE PERIODIC PRICING OR VALUATION INFORMATION TO INVESTORS, MAY INVOLVE COMPLEX TAX STRUCTURES AND DELAYS IN DISTRIBUTING IMPORTANT TAX INFORMATION, ARE NOT SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

    Before making any type of investment, one should consult with an investment professional to consider whether the investment is appropriate for the individuals risk profile. This is not intended to be investment advice or a solicitation to purchase any of the securities listed here. I will not be held liable or responsible for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result from the content of this article.

     

     



    Disclosure: No Positions
    Tags: SLV, ZSL, Gold, Silver
    Sep 10 1:46 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Technical Commentary (Europe) – September 7th


    Greece (Athens) General Share – After the crisis this spring ran its course the ATG put in a nice double bottom in early June and July, which also confirmed the early 2009 bottom, and has moved up through the 50 day moving average. The short-term charts are mildly bullish with this week being key to see if the rally can continue and/or the 50 day moving average begins to provide support for the market. If so, there is a nice rally here up to the 1850 area.

     

    The longer-term charts, while ugly, show a triple bottom around the 1500 level which provided a nice base in 2003, 2009, and 2010.

     

    The Greek market looks to be a very nice contrarian play if the government continues to accept the bitter medicine it was prescribed this spring.

     

    Unfortunately, there is no Greek ETF for small investors to play this rally.

    Athens

    Germany (DAX) – The short-term charts are bullish for Germany as it appears we are moving back to the top of the channel. Strong German economic performance is driving the DAX and we may see a breakout to new yearly highs later this year. The interesting part of the short-term charts are the higher lows on each selloff even if the high on the subsequent rally does not make a higher high.

     

    The longer-term charts continue to rattle around between the 50 and 200 week moving averages making a strong base. An interesting note is the 50 month and 200 week moving averages are in the 6189 area providing serious resistance. A solid move above these levels on strong volume would likely see a move back up to the 8000 level.

    Dax

     

    US Commentary – We had a nice rally last week which was long overdue. This week will be slow due to the Labor Day holiday and Rosh Hashanah so trading volume is likely to be lighter than expected.

    One thing that worries me about last week's rally is how everyone seems to be tripping over themselves trying to call a bottom. That is typically not a good sign despite the bullish signals.

     

    Disclaimer
    Communications are intended solely for informational purposes. Statements made should not be construed as an endorsement, either expressed or implied. This article and the author is not responsible for typographic errors or other inaccuracies in the content. This article may not be reproduced without credit or permission from the author. We believe the information contained herein to be accurate and reliable. However, errors may occasionally occur. Therefore, all information and materials are provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. Past results are not indicative of future results.
    PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN THE STOCK, BOND, AND DERIVATIVE MARKETS. WHEN CONSIDERING ANY TYPE OF INVESTMENT, INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS: OFTEN ENGAGE IN LEVERAGING AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES THAT MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS, CAN BE ILLIQUID, ARE NOT REQUIRED TO PROVIDE PERIODIC PRICING OR VALUATION INFORMATION TO INVESTORS, MAY INVOLVE COMPLEX TAX STRUCTURES AND DELAYS IN DISTRIBUTING IMPORTANT TAX INFORMATION, ARE NOT SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

    Before making any type of investment, one should consult with an investment professional to consider whether the investment is appropriate for the individuals risk profile. This is not intended to be investment advice or a solicitation to purchase any of the securities listed here. I will not be held liable or responsible for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result from the content of this article.

     

     



    Disclosure: No positions
    Sep 07 9:43 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Bullish or Bearish?

     

     

    The market this year has had some rough times. The rally which started in March of 2009 topped out in April of 2010 and caused the market to trend lower for the last 5 months. But as mentioned in my last article the market is approaching a moment in time when a solid buying opportunity will emerge.

     

    On the bearish side of the equation we have weak economic growth, stubbornly high unemployment, massive budget deficits, and a weak banking sector. There is also the issue with the Hindenburg Omen, for which a downside move of just a few more percent would make the signal a success.

     

    On the bullish side we have an equities market that seems overvalued from a PE perspective is undervalued based on dividend yield when compared with similar yields on US Treasuries, AAII surveys showing that small investors are bearish, and favorable profit growth in the large cap sector.

     

    The stock market has in many way mirrored the returns of the market in the 70's where we had whipsawing action sideways for many years until inflation was dealt with by Paul Volker and set the stage for the great bull market in equities that ran until 2000.

     

    Intel's announcement guiding revenues and gross margins lower in the third quarter may be the harbinger of earnings warnings in the tech sector as companies move to get the bad news out early.

     

    September is a month where earnings and economic worries are likely to provide some stormy weather for the markets but once we move into the fourth quarter the skies should clear for a nice rally into 2011 although we are likely to end the year on the downside.

     

    As mentioned before, there are a number of high quality blue chip stocks with attractive dividend yields that can provided comfort to investors with a steady income stream. Once the weather clears these stocks should lead the market higher as investors look to dividends for safety in these turbulent times.

     

     

     

    Disclaimer
    Communications are intended solely for informational purposes. Statements made should not be construed as an endorsement, either expressed or implied. This article and the author is not responsible for typographic errors or other inaccuracies in the content. This article may not be reproduced without credit or permission from the author. We believe the information contained herein to be accurate and reliable. However, errors may occasionally occur. Therefore, all information and materials are provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. Past results are not indicative of future results.
    PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN THE STOCK, BOND, AND DERIVATIVE MARKETS. WHEN CONSIDERING ANY TYPE OF INVESTMENT, INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS: OFTEN ENGAGE IN LEVERAGING AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES THAT MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS, CAN BE ILLIQUID, ARE NOT REQUIRED TO PROVIDE PERIODIC PRICING OR VALUATION INFORMATION TO INVESTORS, MAY INVOLVE COMPLEX TAX STRUCTURES AND DELAYS IN DISTRIBUTING IMPORTANT TAX INFORMATION, ARE NOT SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

    Before making any type of investment, one should consult with an investment professional to consider whether the investment is appropriate for the individuals risk profile. This is not intended to be investment advice or a solicitation to purchase any of the securities listed here. I will not be held liable or responsible for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result from the content of this article.

     

     



    Disclosure: No positions
    Tags: SPY
    Sep 02 3:20 PM | Link | Comment!
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