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David Vengerov

 
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  • An Explosive Rally In Gold And Silver Is About To Begin [View article]
    Sharp pullbacks in silver are still getting bought. Weak hands are panicking (or selling to raise cash), while the strong hands with a longer time horizon are stepping in at this price level.

    It is also encouraging to see that $USD made a new high today, rising noticeably above its level on June 28, but SLV and GLD are still above their June 28 lows. In fact, both SLV and GLD finished the day green! Over a long time horizon, the uptrend in gold/silver becomes more and more independent from the moves in $USD. We have a competitive currency devaluation underway, since the debt/GDP ratios of US and of Europe keeps growing, and both of them taking turns now in printing money.
    Jul 24, 2012. 04:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Explosive Rally In Gold And Silver Is About To Begin [View article]
    The volume has almost completely died out in SLV in the month of July. That's how a long-term bear market in some sector usually ends -- when people just give up on that sector and are not even interested in looking at it. That's what supposedly happened to stocks in 1982 -- "stock market" became a dirty word and no one even wanted to look at any stocks...

    This time around, however, SLV is still holding its support at 26! A more frequent situation, however, is when the line connecting the lows is sloping down, but not as much as the line connecting the tops. This kind of a downward sloping descending wedge is typical for the end of a long-term decline, and spectacular rallies usually occur following such declining wedges when they reach the apex and the volatility almost completely dies out...
    Jul 24, 2012. 02:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Explosive Rally In Gold And Silver Is About To Begin [View article]
    Bruce Krasting made an interesting analysis today of what the Fed can do during the August meeting:

    http://bit.ly/O49i8l

    His conclusion is that a cut in the deposit rate from a 1/4% to a 1/8% is the most likely outcome of the meeting, and while it seems like a small change, it would provide a significant boost for commodities, he argues. That could just be the event that lights the fire under gold and silver, if they don't take off until then.

    Incidentally, the fact that both gold and silver are up today despite a large jump in $USD shows the internal strength accumulated in these sectors.
    Jul 20, 2012. 07:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Explosive Rally In Gold And Silver Is About To Begin [View article]
    The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports that came out today showed that the net long speculative positions in silver and gold futures are still smaller than they were during the low in December 2011! The longer such pessimism persists in this sector, the larger the inevitable rally is going to be.
    Jul 20, 2012. 06:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Explosive Rally In Gold And Silver Is About To Begin [View article]
    JB, you made some good points about opposition to QE. Bernanke had indeed mentioned that the benefits of QEs are diminishing, but he also said that the Congress should address the fiscal cliff ASAP so as to avoid a recession in 2013. So the next stimulus measure might very well come from the government (fiscal stimulus) rather than the Fed (monetary stimulus).
    Jul 20, 2012. 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Explosive Rally In Gold And Silver Is About To Begin [View article]
    Here is what Ray Dalio, a guru from Bridgewater Associates, wrote on gold in his Q2 letter:

    "Gold is also being supported by secularly increasing demand. Prior to the financial crisis, gold was substantially under-owned relative to financial assets, and despite stepped-up purchases of gold by central banks and sovereign wealth funds, the shift toward greater holdings of the precious metal is still in its early stages…speculative gold positions had been significantly reduced [by the end of the quarter] and as a result are less likely to be a bearish short-term driver going forward."

    Here is another titbit:

    "Soros Fund Management LLC, founded by the 81-year-old billionaire, more than tripled its investment in the SPDR Gold Trust in the first quarter to 319,550 shares now valued at $50.2 million, an SEC filing May 15 showed. It held as few as 42,800 shares last year."

    The "strong hands" are accumulating gold prior to its next leg up. I think it is wise to be in their company...
    Jul 19, 2012. 06:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Explosive Rally In Gold And Silver Is About To Begin [View article]
    Whitehawk, usually the best time to get in for a long-term trade is when a sector seems dead, when the sentiment is most negative, but the price is showing a clear bottoming pattern (which is the case now in the precious metals sector).
    Jul 19, 2012. 05:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Explosive Rally In Gold And Silver Is About To Begin [View article]
    Bruce -- what don't you like in the logic of the article? What exactly are you objecting to?
    Jul 19, 2012. 05:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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