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David Vengerov  

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  • Is The Recent Destruction Of Golden Minerals' Share Price Justified? [View article]
    Could this be it:

    "Retail sales in the U.S. fell in October for the first time in four months, influenced by the effects of superstorm Sandy, which hurt receipts for some and helped for others."

    "Wholesale prices unexpectedly fell for the first time in five months as energy and vehicle costs dropped. The 0.2 percent decline in the producer price index came after a 1.1 percent increase the prior month, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington."

    If anything, this reduces expected inflation even more and also reduces expected economic activity, thus making it easier for the Fed to announce a new larger bond buying program in December.
    Nov 14, 2012. 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Recent Destruction Of Golden Minerals' Share Price Justified? [View article]
    The analysts seem to agree with my conclusions: http://buswk.co/QH2vFY

    So what is pushing the market down so much today???
    Nov 14, 2012. 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Recent Destruction Of Golden Minerals' Share Price Justified? [View article]
    Here are some key quotes from today's release of FOMC minutes:

    "Inflation rose recently because of a temporary run-up in energy prices. However, longer-term inflation expectations were stable, and over the medium run, inflation was anticipated to run at or below the Committee's 2 percent objective."

    "In their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, Committee members generally agreed that their overall assessments of the economic outlook were little changed since their previous meeting. Accordingly, all but one member judged that maintaining the current, highly accommodative stance of monetary policy was warranted in order to foster a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. The Committee judged that continuing both the purchases of MBS at a pace of $40 billion per month and the existing program to extend the average maturity of its Treasury securities holdings remained appropriate."

    "Looking ahead, a number of participants indicated that additional asset purchases would likely be appropriate next year after the conclusion of the maturity extension program in order to achieve a substantial improvement in the labor market."

    So I guess we should be looking forward to some interesting announcement during the December meeting, which could light a fire under gold, silver, and miners...
    Nov 14, 2012. 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Recent Destruction Of Golden Minerals' Share Price Justified? [View article]
    Billy, that's a good point you made about the warrants -- some people could have indeed decided to quickly sell the shares at a small loss and just keep the warrants. If that was the case, then the artificial selling is probably over by now, which means that a bounce back to $5.75 is potentially "in the cards." Of course, this bounce might be met by more selling from those who got the warrants during the offering, until they run out of shares to sell. At that point, the buy/sell balance will heavily tilt toward the upside, since no artificial sellers will remain (and all the "weak hands" will also be out of this stock).
    Nov 14, 2012. 03:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Recent Destruction Of Golden Minerals' Share Price Justified? [View article]
    For those of you who thought that a share offering at $5.75 (which AUMN did on September 14) justified the immediate drop in the price of shares from $7 to $5.75, let's imagine what would happen if the company were to postpone that announcement until now, when its share price is $3.82? If everyone had learned about that share offering today, would that immediately take the AUMN price to $5.75?

    Moral of the story: AUMN at $3.82 now is a MUCH better value than when it was at $3.82 in July, without the extra $37M in cash, with silver trading at $26 and gold trading at $1500, and with expected gold/silver production volume over the next year much lower in July than now.
    Nov 13, 2012. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Recent Destruction Of Golden Minerals' Share Price Justified? [View article]
    Instead of selling these shares on the upcoming bounce in AUMN, I decided instead to keep them for the long term (so as to pay a smaller long-term capital gain tax on the HUGE profit I expect to make on these shares over the 1-year time horizon) and instead placed a sell limit order for 20 contracts of April $5 calls at $0.60 (I bought A LOT of such calls between $0.60 and $0.40 over the past few weeks, and since gains on options are always taxed as a short-term capital gain, I might as well sell them first). So now I have a nice "ladder" of sell limit orders for scaling out of my April $5 calls: 20 contracts at $0.60, 20 contracts at $0.80, 20 contracts at $1.00, etc. Just to make sure that I don't miss any spike up in AUMN, however brief it is going to be...
    Nov 13, 2012. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Recent Destruction Of Golden Minerals' Share Price Justified? [View article]
    Seeing the relative outperformance of AUMN over GDXJ and SIL today, the fact that the decline in AUMN had stopped at exactly the July double bottom level of $3.82, the fact that $USD futures have formed an ascending bearish wedge, the fact that the 1-month intraday chart of SLV clearly shows that the pattern of lower highs and lower lows has been broken (silver might be anticipating the breakdown in $USD), I decided to further increase my AUMN position and just bought 1K more shares at $3.85.
    Nov 13, 2012. 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Recent Destruction Of Golden Minerals' Share Price Justified? [View article]
    The highly bullish formation of a descending wedge was the key to my prediction of an imminent large rally in gold and silver in July, as I wrote in

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Conversely, an ascending wedge is statistically a bearish formation. Currently, we have a perfect ascending wedge on the hourly chart of $USD futures:

    http://bit.ly/PuV8wd

    Let's see if this leads to a $USD breakdown soon (which should cause GLD/SLV to rally)...
    Nov 13, 2012. 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Recent Destruction Of Golden Minerals' Share Price Justified? [View article]
    If you haven't already reached the maximum fraction of your portfolio that you were willing to allocate to AUMN, then I would definitely urge you to buy some more today, ESPECIALLY given the fact that the $3.82 support level (the July low on the closing basis, which was matched at yesterday's close) seems to be holding (GDXJ and SIL are down today, but AUMN is up). If you are very risk averse, then you can leave some cash aside so as to buy more AUMN if it drops to $3.50 and then to $3.25.
    Nov 13, 2012. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Recent Destruction Of Golden Minerals' Share Price Justified? [View article]
    A simple way not to miss the next bounce in AUMN (which should already happen purely for technical reasons, with AUMN being SO MUCH oversold), is to start scaling in now (if you haven't already started) and just place sell limit orders at certain profit levels above your entry (while keeping a part of your position as a long-term core, until AUMN reaches 850 tpd and all analysts update their 1-year price targets).
    Nov 13, 2012. 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Recent Destruction Of Golden Minerals' Share Price Justified? [View article]
    And the more stocks go down over the next months, the greater will be the pressure on Bernanke to announce unsterilized buying of long-term treasuries, which should like a fire under gold/silver, just like it did during QE2.
    Nov 13, 2012. 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Recent Destruction Of Golden Minerals' Share Price Justified? [View article]
    The next major catalyst for the gold & silver prices will come on December 12, when the Fed will likely announce that they will keep buying the long-term Treasuries in 2013, this time without selling the corresponding short-term treasuries. They have already sold almost all the short-term treasuries they had on their balance sheet and have nothing more to sell, but at the same time the risk of the fiscal cliff is going to be very pressing, and Bernanke will also feel ashamed that after his QE3 announcement all asset prices went down. So he will be strongly compelled to do more QE at that point, increasing the net buying of securities from $40B/month now to $85B/month (which is the amount that will happen if he simply stops selling short-term treasuries).
    Nov 13, 2012. 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Share Offering By AUMN Creates A Unique Buying Opportunity [View article]
    My next article about AUMN was just published. It doesn't have much new information in addition to what I have already provided in these comments, but at least it will allow us to start a new blog page, as this one is getting very long. So please post all your comments under that article:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Nov 13, 2012. 02:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Share Offering By AUMN Creates A Unique Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Doug, you said:

    "When a stock is bearish and will continue to follow that trend you should be point that out and be making suggestion for people to either sell and buy at a cheaper price or hold."

    The key to your analysis is the assumption that when a bearish trend has been detected, the stock will continue to follow that trend. This is the philosophy of momentum players. If it were true, then all momentum players would be making money in the stock market. Unfortunately, momentum players, on average, lose money in the stock market. And the reason they do is because by the time you spot a downtrend, it is usually ready to reverse, and so momentum players tend to sell at the lows and buy at the tops. On the other hand, the strategy of waiting for a stock to get into a "value" region (say below $5.75 on AUMN, and DEFINITELY below $4.40) and then just blindly scaling into that stock if it goes further down, with the intent of gradually scaling out of that stock as it comes out of the value region (whenever it does), has been shown to actually *make* money over the long term. Unfortunately, very few people have the patience and stamina to follow this strategy, and as expected, very few people are able to consistently make money in the stock market over the long term.
    Nov 12, 2012. 06:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Share Offering By AUMN Creates A Unique Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Doug, this web site is so amateurish that I don't think it is even worth discussing it. As an example, consider their observation: "The price-to-sales multiple is significantly higher than the average for all stocks in the StockScouter universe. Negative for a small company like AUMN." Only clueless people will value a company that is in the early stages of production expansion based on its price-to-sales multiple, and only clueless people will compare an expanding mining company with other consumer-oriented companies, whose sales depend on consumer demand. Clueless people who don't even do "due diligence" about a company deserve to lose money in the stock market.
    Nov 11, 2012. 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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