View as an RSS Feed
View David White's Articles BY TICKER:
AA, AAPL, ABX, ACHC, AEM, AEP, AG, AGNC, AI, ALJ, ALNY, AMED, AMTG, AMZN, ANF, ANV, APO, ARCP, ARLP, ARR, ARWR, ATHL, AU, AVB, AXAS, BAC, BBEP, BBG, BCHEY, BRY, BX, BZF, CABN, CF, CG, CHK, CIT, CLDX, CLF, CLMT, CLNE, CLNY, CLR, CMO, CMTL, CNP, CNX, CODE, COF, COG, CREE, CRM, CVX, CXS, CYB, CYS, D, DB, DCT, DDR, DLPH, DRI, DRYS, DUK, DVN, DX, ECA, ED, ENB, EOG, EOX, EPD, ERJ, ESV, ETE, EWP, EXH, FANG, FCX, FMER, FUN, FWLT, GE, GES, GILD, GLD, GLP, GNI, GORO, GPOR, GS, GSJK, GTE, HAL, HBAN, HCN, HEB, HES, HFC, HK, HMY, HOG, HSOL, HTS, HUSKF, IP, IRET, IVR, IWV, JPM, KERX, KKR, KLAC, KOG, KWK, LDK, LEI, LINE, LM, LMT, LNCO, LNG, LRE, LTBR, LULU, LVB, M, MCP, MET, MFA, MHR, MITT, MOS, MRK, MRO, MS, MTDR, MTGE, MWE, NCT, NEE, NFLX, NGLS, NLY, NOV, NRF, NVEC, NWE, NYMT, OAS, OMER, ONXX, OPEN, ORC, OXY, P, PAA, PAL, PCLN, PCXCQ, PDH, PDLI, PKIUF, PLCM, PLL, PMT, PNC, PNG, POT, PSX, PWE, PXD, QCOR, QRE, RDC, REXX, RNF, ROSE, ROYL, RRC, RSO, SBRA, SBUX, SCSZF, SD, SDRL, SLB, SO, SODA, SPH, SPY, SRE, SSE, STO, STWD, SVNTQ, SWC, SWN, SXL, TBT, TCBI, TLLP, TLT, TOT, TSLA, TSN, TSRA, TWO, TXN, UIL, UNP, UPL, USO, UUP, VIXX, VLO, VMC, VNR, VPFG, WEC, WFC, WHR, WLK, WLL, WMB, WMC, WPRT, WY, X, XCO, XEC, XEL, XLE, XOM, YPF, YUM
Looking For A Bounce In Oil Stocks? Let Hedging Guide You
- In the last three months CHK has sold off -36%. CLR has sold off -28%; and EOG has sold off -22%.
- Oil prices have declined from roughly $105 to about $82 per barrel.
- For these strong oil and gas E & P companies, this sell off may represent a long term or a short term buying opportunity.
- Hedging may be a big determinant in whether you want to risk your money on these stocks. Current hedging data and more is provided in the article.
Oversold, 13.4% Dividend Breitburn Energy Is A Bargain On This Dip
- BBEP is in the process of merging with QRE. This is expected to be accretive to distributable cash flow.
- BBEP's merger with QRE makes BBEP more oily, which should be good longer term. In the short term, it may hurt.
- BBEP (and QRE) have mature, low-decline rate assets. They do much less "drilling" compared to shale oil and gas developers. Financing the little they do should be little changed.
- BBEP is also well hedged for 2014. This should cut down on the amount of "hurt" the lower oil prices will inflict.
Oversold, 11.3% Dividend Vanguard Natural Resources Is A Bargain On This Dip
- VNR closed on the acquisitions of two new properties in Q3 2014. These both should be accretive to distributable cash flow.
- VNR reserves are 68% natural gas. Hence VNR is not overly exposed to falling oil prices; and natural gas prices seem likely to rise.
- VNR oil production is well hedged for both 2014 and 2015 as is its natural gas production.
- VNR grows mostly by buying mature, low decline rate assets that require little development. This should obviate the development financing problems of many development companies.
11.5% Dividend Payer American Capital Agency Adopts Monthly Dividends And NAV Estimates
- AGNC gained $1.77 per share in book value in Q2 2014 along with $0.65 per share in dividend payout for a total return of $2.42 (about 9.9% for Q2 alone).
- AGNC has announced monthly dividends and book value estimates beginning October 31, 2014 (and available about November 15, 2014). This should help investors track book value.
- The 10-year US Treasury Note yield is down from 2.53% as of June 30, 2014, to 2.28% as of October 11, 2014 (-25 bps) - book value gain for AGNC.
Oversold, 14% Dividend Payer CYS Investments Looks Attractive
- CYS had a total economic return of 9.8% for Q2 2014 alone (dividend + book value gain).
- CYS likely lost a small amount of book value in Q3 2014, but it will still pay its great dividend.
- The spike in bond yields (fall in bond prices) was short lived; and they have now retraced. This makes CYS a much safer investment.
Oversold, 15.4% Dividend Payer Armour Residential REIT Looks Attractive
- ARR pays a fantastic 15.4% annual dividend.
- The dividend appears to be stable, although the Core Income of $0.13 per share in Q2 did not fully cover the $0.15 dividend.
- ARR has already declared the same $0.15 per share dividend ($0.05 per month) for Q4 2014.
- Interest rates have been relatively stable for Q3 with the 10 year US Treasury Note yield ending Q2 at 2.53% and ending Q3 at 2.49% (a 4 bps difference).
- The Q2E 2014 book value of $4.90 probably decreased to roughly $4.86 per share. This is almost 25% higher than the $3.90 stock price on October 6, 2014.
If Gilead's Hepatitis C Treatment Grosses $10B+ Per Year, Arrowhead's Hepatitis B Treatment Is Attractive.
- GILD's Hepatitis C treatment Sovaldi grossed $5.75B in 1H 2014. FY2014 targets range from $9B to $14B. It's a BLOCKBUSTER.
- ARWR has a hepatitis B treatment - ARC-520 - that is in Phase IIa development. It looks very promising so far. Further news is expected soon.
- Hepatitis B is roughly twice as prevalent as Hepatitis C, and there are no known "cures" yet. ARC-520 could be at least a "functional cure".
- If your interest has been peaked, there are many more details in the article below.
10% Dividend Increase At Union Pacific Makes This Steady Producer More Attractive
- On July 31, 2014, UNP announced a dividend raise of 10% to $0.50 per share for Q3 2014.
- The transport sector is up 28.1% year to date, while UNP's stock price is up 26.62% year to date.
- Railroads represent a near monopoly that is also a secular growth story for decades to come, as the price of energy is expected to climb.
Downtrodden Guess Likely To Be Hurt Further By A Weak Euro, Euro Area
- Guess has seen both revenues and operating earnings fall consistently for the last three years.
- Q2 2015 operating earnings were down 55% year over year.
- Guess has 35% of its market in Europe, where more than 20% of young people (Guess' target demographic) are unemployed.
- Guess is also suffering from a move away from the "fantasy girl" to a more realistic girl in marketing and advertising. It is unclear how the company will address this.
Raise Of Dividend To 18.5% Makes Western Asset Mortgage Look Attractive
- WMC raised its dividend from $0.67 to $0.70 per share for Q3 2014. This brings the annual dividend rate to about 18.5%.
- Core earnings plus drop income at $1.00 for Q2 2014 would easily cover this. Even the core earnings alone of $0.75 per share would have.
- WMC is heavily hedged. It should be able to withstand a move upward in interest rates with little damage.
There Are A Lot Of Positives For Chesapeake Energy, Including A Major Technical Support
- Chesapeake Energy increased production in Q2 2014 by 13% year over year.
- However, it saw EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA fall significantly as prices of oil and natural gas fell.
- CHK has huge assets in some of the most prolific unconventional fields in the US (12+ million acres).
- CHK has reduced its net debt to approximately $10B, which has been a milestone for some time.
- Lower than normal natural gas stores and a likely El Nino winter may lead to higher natural gas prices this winter. The fundamentals should help CHK make a technical bounce.
Bellwether Northwestern Is A Buy On The Interest Rate Spike Mediated Dip
- NWE has historically been one of the best performing utility companies in the US. It provides solid long term growth and a good dividend.
- It managed nearly 4% growth in 1H 2014. It managed to increase gross margin 3% in Q2 2014.
- Its newly acquired hydro assets are going on rate base soon. Read further to learn more.
Linn Energy's Latest Asset Swap With Exxon Mobil Should Cut Costs And Increase Payouts
- LINE has inked another 1031 asset swap with XOM. This will swap high development and maintenance expense Permian assets for low decline, low maintenance Belridge assets.
- The XOM assets are 51% developed and 100% oil. They are also strategically located near many other LINE assets.
- LINE gives up 4.7 MBoe/d of production for XOM's 3.4 MBoe/d of 100% oil production.
How Does Annaly Look After The Recent Rate Rise? Still Good
- Annaly Capital has been one of the blue chips of the mortgage REIT sector.
- It still has a large investment in Agency fixed rate RMBS. These go up in value as interest rates go down; and they go down as interest rates go up.
- Interest rates are at virtually the same point on September 19, 2014 as they were on June 30, 2014.
- This means the $13.23 per common share, which is higher than the $11.31 stock price as of September 19, 2014, is a good reason to buy this 10.6% dividend payer.
- Read the article for an explanation and rationale of likely interest rate moves. NLY's valuation will likely move with such rate moves.
New Operations News And A Guide Higher On Q3 Production Make Abraxas Petroleum Look Attractive
- Abraxas Petroleum on September 15, 2014 raised its midpoint production guidance from 6600 Boepd to 6950 Boepd.
- The original guidance was already a +32% gain sequentially over Q2 2014 production of 4,987 Boepd. The new Q3 guidance is about +39% higher than Q2 2014 production.
- AXAS cut lease operating expenses from a midpoint of $13.50/Boe to $12.50/Boe. Read on for more details.
The Fall On The COO Leaving Has Created A Buying Opportunity For Continental Resources
- CLR's President and COO Rick Bott abruptly decided to leave.
- Oil prices have been going downward for the last month or more.
- With oil prices seemingly stabilizing, now may be a good time to buy CLR, which has been a blue chip in unconventional oil & gas E&Ps.
3.6% Dividend Payer DDR Corp. May Be A Troubled Company
- DDR grew FFO 3.7% year over year to $0.28 per diluted share. It pays a 3.6% dividend ($0.62 per share annually), which is a 15% increase over 2013.
- However, the retail industry in general is moving to more online retailing. This means slower growth or even shrinkage of the mall space that DDR is in.
- Further DDR's strategy, while good, has apparent road blocks ahead. This almost has to mean lower growth and eventually lower earnings performance. Read more for some interesting details.
5% Dividend Health Care REIT Is Overpriced, But Its Long-Term Strategy Is Sound
- HCN is in a business for which the demographic fundamentals are fantastic. HCN's strategic plan is also good.
- HCN is one of the leaders in the Healthcare REIT space. It has a long term total return of 15.9%. It returned 31.1% through August 31, 2014 year to date.
- Unfortunately its great performance has led to it being overpriced. For more details, read the article.
It's Hard To Ignore George Soros' SPY Put Position Anymore
- George Soros had a $2.2B S&P 500 put position as of June 30, 2014, per his 13F filing. This represents 16.6513% of his portfolio.
- The current bull market is 66 months old. The median length has been only 50 months. The average length has been 67 months since 1871.
- Investors have not seen even a big pullback in the S&P 500 since July-August 2011. We are overdue for at least that.
- There are many more reasons to expect a down move in the S&P 500 in the reasonably near future. Read the article to learn more.
Can SandRidge Energy Get Its Mojo Back?
- SandRidge sold production assets in early 2014. Therefore, its revenue comparisons will tend to be bad for the rest of 2014.
- SandRidge also suffered from the same bad weather that hit other oil and gas E&P development companies.
- However, the reality is that its management strategy is sound, and it is executing that strategy well for good growth, especially in liquids.
- It has already gotten much of its mojo back. If you are interested in the details of this, read more. It may be fascinating.
Is Alibaba Amazon's Replacement As The Online Retail Growth Leader?
- The Alibaba IPO is scheduled for September 19, 2014. Alibaba has sales that are roughly four times those of Amazon.
- Amazon is far overpriced on a fundamental basis with an FPE of about 172. It has also been technically losing its upward momentum in 2014.
- The BABA IPO should officially make BABA bigger in market cap than AMZN. Plus it will give BABA about $21B in new money it can use for development.
- WMT, SPLS, and others are competing with AMZN online already. The BABA IPO may end AMZN's momentum run with finality. Read further for more details.
After The Oil Price Fall, It May Be A Good Time To Buy Star Performer Athlon Energy
- The recent oil price fall may present a good buying opportunity for 50% per annum EPS grower Athlon Energy.
- ATHL guidance for Q3 2014 is for 26.5-27.5 MBoe/d of production. ATHL has already cited 28 MBoe/d of pro forma production for June 2014 -- ensuring a beat.
- ATHL's oil production is well hedged for both FY2014 and FY2015. This ensures revenues to a large degree.
- ATHL grew revenues 109% year over year in Q2 2014. It grew EBITDA 95%. Read further for more details.
Tepper Declares 'The Bond Rally Is Over'; But Is It?
- David Tepper, famed founder of hedge fund Appaloosa Management LP, on September 4, 2014 proclaimed that the bond rally was over after the ECB cut interest rates.
- Many things argue against Tepper being correct this time out. Most notably the Q2 14 country Euro Area GDP growth was 0.0%. This article discusses many such issues more completely.
- Further the ECB's bond buying program should move many Euro Area bonds yields downward. These may drag US Treasury yields down with them.
- This article also suggests at least one way investors can play the uncertain world economic state. Read more for some interesting information that most investors should know.
Sabra Health Care's Industry, Diversification, Stability, Dividend, And Growth Look Attractive
- Sabra has been diversifying its customer base, its tenant base, and its variety of businesses to apparent success.
- Sabra's Q2 2014 results substantiate the profitability and growth of its businesses. Normalized FFO grew 39% and normalized AFFO grew 29% year over year. This is good growth.
- Sabra also pays a hefty 5.30% dividend. Read further for more details. You may find SBRA an interesting investment.
Matador Resources Is A Strong Stock And It May Triple Or More.
- MTDR has 152,132 net prospective acres with about 62,000 in the Permian and 29,149 net acres in the prolific oil window of the Eagle Ford.
- Its approximately 62,000 net acres in the Permian Basin are virtually undeveloped as yet. They provide huge upside to oil production with wells up to 91% oil.
- The early results from the Permian look very promising. MTDR has a 2-rig exploration and delineation program for the Permian for FY2014.
- Since the Permian leases are mostly government leases, one well can hold a huge acreage by production. This factor will allow MTDR to drill more where it wants to.
- Continue reading for more details.
11.5% Dividend Payer Invesco Mortgage Capital Is Returning Large Profits In 2014
- IVR pays an 11.5% dividend.
- IVR gained $1.27 per common share in book value in Q2 2014 for a total economic return of about +9.6% for Q2 alone and 16% for 1H 2014.
- Further, IVR is positioning itself strategically for eventual rising interest rates. Read more for more details. A well-run income investment may be worth your time.
Continental Resources Is Set To Take Back Its Crown And To Double Its Reserves
- Continental Resources was recently supplanted as the biggest oil producer in the Bakken by the combination of KOG and WLL.
- CLR is growing faster than the combined companies of KOG and WLL by drilling alone. Plus, it is already the bigger overall producer, including other areas such as the SCOOP.
- In addition, CLR is testing new well density drilling strategies and new well completion techniques that will lead to much more production and proved reserves.
- Read the article for more details. They make CLR look like a huge buy.
Newcastle Investment Corp.'s Planned Senior Housing Spin-Off Should Mean Gains For Shareholders.
- NCT had a recent 3 for 1 reverse stock split.
- NCT put in a good Q2 2014. It pays a roughly 8.75% annual dividend, which looks stable.
- NCT is planning to spin-off its senior housing business as SNR in the very near future. Past spin-offs have been lucrative for investors in NCT.
- Read more to get an idea of how lucrative the spin-off may be for investors.
12%+ Dividend Payer AG Mortgage Investment Trust Is An Attractive Mortgage REIT
- MITT pays a 12.7% annual dividend. Its Core Earnings in Q2 2014 covered this.
- MITT had a $0.73 per common share book value gain in Q2 2014 for a total economic return of about 6.8% for Q2 2014 alone (about 27% annualized).
- MITT is shifting its strategy to account for the likely interest rate rises in the future quarters. This shows good management. Read more for more details.
Orchid Island Capital's Recent Performance Compared To Peers AGNC, ARR, And WMC
- ORC is a relatively new mortgage REIT, which was founded in 2010. It has been growing its portfolio via large secondary offerings.
- ORC pays a very attractive 15.19% annual dividend. Additionally it had a +$0.58 book value gain (+4.65%) in Q2 2014 for a total economic return of about 9% in Q2.
- This article also looks at ORC's performance longer term. It compares that performance to other mortgage REITs. It discusses ORC's preparation for the future quarters. Read more.
Multiple Catalysts Make Oversold Diamondback Energy Attractive
- FANG's Q2 2014 production was up 32% from Q1 2014 and 171% from Q2 2013 at 17.8 Mboe/d.
- On July 18, 2014, FANG announced the acquisition of 13,136 net acres in the Permian Basin with production of 2.2 Mboe/d and 5.2 MM of proved reserves.
- FANG spun off VNOM in Q2 2014. It retained ownership of 92% of the common units and all of the IDRs.
- FANG is working to cut costs and improve drilling and completion techniques for further profits.
Bakken E&P Oasis Petroleum May Be A Good Buy On This Dip
- OAS has 507,000 net acres in the prolific Bakken play.
- Recent completion technique improvements have seen OAS get about a +35% improvement in IP rates. This should pump future production numbers up.
- After a -20%+ drop in stock price, OAS is a buy with good fundamentals and positive geopolitical events for oil.
- Read further to see more details in what may be a great long-term trade.