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David White

 
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  • 11% Dividend Capstead Mortgage Continually Turns In Decent Results
    Fri, Jan. 30 CMO 1 Comment

    Summary

    • CMO pays an 11.2% dividend.
    • It lost -$0.08 per common share in book value in Q4 2014.
    • For FY2014 it gained +0.05 per common share in book value.
  • Is 11.3% Dividend, Annaly Managed Chimera Investment Corp. Better Than Annaly?
    Wed, Jan. 28 CIM 2 Comments

    Summary

    • CIM pays an 11%+ dividend.
    • CIM is more diversified than Agency only mortgage REITs. This has led to its outperformance in the last two years.
    • The CIM hedging examples indicate that CIM should see a small book value gain for Q4 2014.
  • Cheap Fuel Will Only Improve Swift Transportation's Already Improving Results
    Tue, Jan. 27 SWFT 2 Comments

    Summary

    • SWFT saw 34.5% EPS growth in Q3 2014. It reports Q4 data after the market closes on January 28, 2015.
    • Over the last five years it has seen 12.5% CAGR Total Revenue Growth and 23.4% CAGR Adjusted Operating Income growth.
    • SWFT is predicting 25%+ EPS growth for FY2015; and it seems extremely likely to exceed that with the now dramatically lower fuel prices.
  • 1.8% Dividend CSX Corp. Is Seeing Double-Digit Earnings Growth
    Mon, Jan. 26 CSX 4 Comments

    Summary

    • CSX saw a +5% revenue gain in Q4 2014 year over year.
    • CSX saw a +17% EPS gain in Q4 2014 year over year.
    • CSX's outlook cites strength ahead in Q1 2015 and FY2015.
    • Analysis of possible weak areas tends to indicate that they are not as weak as many worried. Read further for more detail.
  • 14% Dividend ARMOUR Residential REIT Should Surprise Many With Its Q4 2014 Performance
    Mon, Jan. 26 ARR 18 Comments

    Summary

    • ARR pays a great 14% dividend, although this could be in for a further cut with the still falling interest rates.
    • ARR has already declared a $0.04 per common share per month dividend through March 2015 ($0.12 per common share for Q1 2015).
    • ARR management bought back about 4.2 million of its own shares in Q4 2014. This indicates that the shares were very undervalued. They are more undervalued now.
    • ARR likely gained book value in Q4 2014. Read more to get the details. ARR appears to be a huge value bargain.
  • 1.8% Dividend Union Pacific's Great Growth Keeps Continuing
    Editors' Pick • Fri, Jan. 23 UNP 21 Comments

    Summary

    • For Q4 2014 UNP beat EPS estimates by +$0.10 at $1.61 per share versus an expected $1.51 per share. This was up +27% from Q4 2013.
    • UNP grew its dividend year over year from $0.395 per share (split adjusted) in Q4 2013 to $0.50 per share in Q4 2014 (+26.58%) - as of July 31, 2014.
    • UNP's stock price has risen 77% over the last two years.
    • Operating revenues for FY2014 were $24.0B (+9.0% year over year).
  • Orchid Island Capital Paid A 16.2% Annualized Dividend For Q4, But Lost Book Value
    Wed, Jan. 21 ORC 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Orchid Island Capital pays a juicy 16.2% annual dividend. The current monthly dividend is $0.18 per common share.
    • The book value fell from $13.27 on September 30, 2014 to $13.05 on December 31, 2014 (-$0.22 or -1.66%).
    • For FY2014 the book value declined from $13.40 per common share on December 31, 2013 to $13.05 per common share on December 31, 2014 (-2.61%).
    • Given the 16.2% dividend, shareholders still got a great return on their investment.
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb: 2.4% Dividend, Impressive Pipeline, Approval Coming Soon
    Wed, Jan. 21 BMY 4 Comments

    Summary

    • BMY ended a lung cancer drug (Opdivo) study early because it met its main goal.
    • FY2016 sales from Opdivo are forecast to be about $1.7B (JPM's Chris Scott). This about an 11% increase to BMY's FY2014 estimated sales of $15.7B.
    • BMY has an impressive pipeline that may make the 2.4% dividend an adequate reward for waiting.
  • 6% Dividend Colony Financial Is A Steady Performer For Your Portfolio.
    Mon, Jan. 12 CLNY 4 Comments

    Summary

    • CLNY raised its dividend about 2.8% from $0.36 to $0.37 for Q4 2014.
    • CLNY's Q3 2014 Core Earnings covered the dividend nicely.
    • CLNY is much less leveraged than many REITs. This should make it less risky in a worrisome market.
  • Exciting Times At 9% Dividend NorthStar Realty Finance May Mean Exciting Growth
    Dec. 31, 2014 NRF 14 Comments

    Summary

    • NRF pays a 9.7% dividend.
    • NRF recently moved into the category of 75%+ hard real estate assets with 79%. This allowed it to join the MSCI US REIT Index.
    • The new prestigious index should bring it more investment monies.
    • The huge new growth in portfolio value without a huge growth in leverage should bring NRF a lot more profits.
  • The Oil Price Crisis: What Is The Economic Cost To The U.S.?
    Dec. 27, 2014 AAL, CLR, FDX 66 Comments

    Summary

    • The price of WTI oil has fallen roughly -$50/barrel in the last 6+ months.
    • With US production at about 9 million barrels per day, this amounts to roughly a -1% drop in the US GDP.
    • When you add in the price drops in "finished petroleum products", the drop in US GDP may be -2.6%.
  • Light Hedging In Q4 Should Translate Into Good Book Value Gains For 10.7% Dividend Payer Annaly Capital
    Dec. 26, 2014 NLY 20 Comments

    Summary

    • As of September 30, 2014, NLY had a net notional value of hedges of 48% of repurchase agreements (or $33.4B).
    • Investment Securities (Agency MBS and Agency debentures) were $82.8B as of September 30, 2014. As a percentage of these, the hedging was even less.
    • The 10-year US Treasury note yield has fallen by -24 bps in Q4 2014. This should provide good MBS value appreciation for lightly hedged NLY.
    • On top of the above, NLY pays a great 10.7% annual dividend.
  • Q4 Looks Like A Better Quarter For ARMOUR Residential REIT
    Dec. 23, 2014 ARR 17 Comments

    Summary

    • ARR pays a 15.9% annual dividend.
    • ARR may see an approximate +3.4% gain in book value in Q4 2014.
    • ARR may also unfortunately see a cut of its dividend to $0.04 per month per common share from $0.05.
  • 12% Dividend American Capital Agency Already Has A $0.20 Book Value Gain In Q4 2014
    Editors' Pick • Dec. 22, 2014 AGNC 38 Comments

    Summary

    • AGNC pays a great 12% dividend.
    • The book value has gone up by $0.20 (about 0.78%) through the first two months of Q4 2014.
    • Using the eleven month book value gain in 2014 and the dividend for FY2014, the total economic return is about 18.5% for FY2014.
    • The stock price would have to rise 15%+ to get to the book value as of November 30, 2014. There is upward potential.
  • 19% Dividend Western Asset Mortgage Capital Is In Line For A Big Increase In Book Value In Q4
    Dec. 17, 2014 WMC 20 Comments

    Summary

    • WMC pays an approximate 19% dividend. Few companies can match that.
    • With the -43 bps drop in the 10 year US Treasury Note yield quarter to date (December 17, 2014), WMC is trading at a discount of $1+ to book value.
    • The ECB's proposed €1 trillion QE program should ensure that bond yields remain low for some time. This should safeguard WMC's book value.
    • Meanwhile WMC has been expanding into other less interest sensitive areas such as CMBS. These changes should position WMC well for the future.
  • All Around The World The Sky Is Falling... Will It Hit You?
    Dec. 16, 2014 EWG, EWI, EWZ 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Many significant world economies are in recession or are slowing significantly.
    • The devastation in many of the world's stock markets' charts is even more striking.
    • We may be at a critical point now or soon. European stocks may plunge further downward, or they may rally modestly.
    • Whether Germany allows Draghi's 1€ Trillion QE plan to move forward soon may be the critical factor in deciding the next world stock markets move.
  • Insiders Are Buying 12.6% Dividend Invesco Mortgage Capital
    Dec. 14, 2014 IVR 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Insiders have increased their holding in IVR by 12.6% (24,631 shares) over the last six months.
    • IVR had a so-so Q3; but it has had a total economic return of 15%+ year to date in 2014.
    • IVR is moving away from interest sensitive investments into less interest sensitive investments such as commercial mezzanine loans. Read more if you are interested in IVR.
  • 13.1% Dividend Agency RMBS Investor CYS Investments Is Likely To See A Large Pop In Book Value
    Dec. 14, 2014 CYS 27 Comments

    Summary

    • The 10-year US Treasury Note yield has fallen -41 bps from September 30, 2014 through December 12, 2014. This likely means a book value pop for CYS.
    • CYS had produced a nearly 20% total economic return in 2014 through Q3.
    • CYS pays a 13.1% annual dividend.
    • CYS' strategy of medium hedging of a portfolio of Agency RMBS has been among the best in 2014.
    • CYS' stock price is trading at a significant discount to its book value, especially its book value after the likely Q4 2014 pop.
  • China's Problems Impeding Rapid Growth -- Part 2: The Lack Of Clean Water
    Dec. 11, 2014 FXI 24 Comments

    Summary

    • China has only about 7% of the world's fresh water resources. Yet it has about 19.2% of the world's population.
    • China has huge water pollution problems. 70% of its rivers and lakes are too polluted for human contact.
    • China's water is situated more in the south while its industry and population are situated more in the north.
    • Global Warming is slowly eroding China's water supply from the Himalayas.
    • This article contains many more important issues. Read further if you have a serious interest in investing in China.
  • China's Problems Impeding Rapid Growth - Part 1: The Cost Of Smog
    Dec. 9, 2014 FXI, PGJ, YINN 11 Comments

    Summary

    • China's GDP has averaged about 8.9% growth per year over the last twenty years.
    • The smog level in China's ten most polluted cities is about 8 times the level of pollutants in their US counterparts.
    • An MIT study found that the cost to the Chinese economy of added sickness and extra health care costs due to smog was about $112B in 2005.
    • This may be nearer $224B per year at the end of 2014. This is a significant negative (-2.5%) for the Chinese economy of about $9.24T.
  • 5.8% Dividend-Yielding Spirit Realty Capital Is Boring; But Its Strength And Stability Are Attractive
    Editors' Pick • Dec. 4, 2014 SRC 3 Comments

    Summary

    • SRC pays a 5.8% dividend ($0.665 per common share per year).
    • The AFFO of $0.61 per common share through Q3 2014 indicates SRC should be able to cover the dividend easily.
    • The FY2015 AFFO guidance of $0.84-$0.86 reaffirms a good dividend for FY2015.
    • Its geographical diversity (48 states) and the industrial diversity of its tenants give SRC strength and stability.
  • How Much Have Low Oil Prices Hurt Chesapeake Energy? Is It A Buy Here?
    Dec. 3, 2014 CHK 16 Comments

    Summary

    • CHK could suffer unanticipated cuts in its revenues of roughly $1B in FY2015 due the oil price crash.
    • NGLs prices usually roughly follow oil prices; and NGLs are hard to hedge.
    • Natural Gas prices should remain firm or higher throughout the winter; and they may remain firm throughout FY2015.
    • CHK's huge portfolio of great development properties make it a long term buy even in the face of possible short term losses (or small gains).
  • Ultra Low Oil Prices Should Mean Windfall Profits For FedEx Near Term
    Dec. 2, 2014 FDX 5 Comments

    Summary

    • FDX had a great Q1 2015 with operating income rising by 24% year over year.
    • The recent fall in oil prices stands to give FDX windfall profits for the next two reporting quarters. Beats should translate into stock price appreciation.
    • FDX is forecasting an 8.8% rise in volume for this Christmas season year over year.
  • 9.7% Dividend MFA Financial Continues To Put Up Good Numbers
    Dec. 1, 2014 MFA 3 Comments

    Summary

    • MFA paid a Q3 2014 dividend of $0.20 (or about 9.7% annualized).
    • MFA had a -1% book value loss for Q3 2014; but this was outperformance compared to most REITs.
    • Between stock price appreciation and dividends issued, MFA has delivered a return of about 27.2% through the first three quarters of 2014.
  • It Pays To Shop At Burlington; And It May Pay To Own Its Stock, Too
    Dec. 1, 2014 BURL 1 Comment

    Summary

    • BURL is a turn around story that analysts believe will achieve profitability with the next two quarters.
    • BURL won't likely stop there. It has an average analysts' next five years EPS Growth estimate of +33.67%.
    • It sells attractive merchandise at very attractive prices (see picture at the bottom of the article).
    • Management is making a lot of fiscal improvements. Barring a new downturn/recession, this stock should grow well.
  • 13.7% Dividend Payer New York Mortgage Trust Has Outperformed, But Has That Made It Riskier?
    Nov. 24, 2014 NYMT 21 Comments

    Summary

    • NYMT has produced a 23.1% total economic return so far in 2014.
    • NYMT has had the same $0.27 per quarter dividend for 10 consecutive quarters.
    • NYMT is so highly thought of by investors that it is trading at a 12.6% premium to its book value.
    • However, there are some trouble spots. There are some areas where NYMT is getting undue praise and/or undue benefit. Any negative change could see a drastic price drop.
  • The Turnaround Story At North American Palladium Is Growing Legs
    Nov. 24, 2014 PAL 42 Comments

    Summary

    • PAL produced 20,000 oz. of palladium in October 2014. This is far up from 32,560 oz. in all of Q3 2014.
    • PAL is projecting it will hit the low end of its guidance, or it will miss only slightly.
    • PAL hit 4,500 tonnes of ore produced per day from underground mining on some days in October 2014. This is far up from 2,900 tonnes in Q2 2014.
    • Q4 will either be the first profitable quarter for PAL in a long time; or it will come very close to being profitable.
    • The combination of cyclical and secular growth in the palladium market should be very positive for PAL.
  • 13.4% Distribution Breitburn Energy Closed QR Energy Deal But It Has A Growing Problem - Oil
    Nov. 21, 2014 BBEP 52 Comments

    Summary

    • BBEP just closed its acquisition of QR Energy.
    • BBEP raised its monthly distribution to $0.1733 (about $2.08 per year or 13.4%).
    • However, BBEP had only a distribution coverage ratio of 0.78x in Q3 2014, which was surprisingly bad.
    • Oil prices have weakened significantly since Q3 2014 to roughly $75/barrel for WTI; and they present a huge challenge to BBEP's distribution coverage ratio if they stay low.
  • Positive Catalysts Make Oversold Occidental Petroleum Worth A Look
    Nov. 18, 2014 OXY 25 Comments

    Summary

    • OXY beat on earnings at $1.58 for Q3, which was mildly positive in this tough oil market.
    • It is about to "demerge" its CRC subsidiary. This, along with a bevy of other actions, should help it rid itself of its long term debt.
    • It is technically oversold; and it is near a strong technical support area. Plus oil may be about to rally??
    • Its new Al Hosn development is expected to reach 60,000 Boe/d by 1H end 2015. Its Permian developments are growing production quickly.
    • OXY expects to grow production by 8%-10% in 2015. Plus it expects to have a pristine balance sheet, if it wasn't already great enough.
  • 12%+ Dividend Payer AG Mortgage Investment Trust Keeps Turning In Great Results
    Nov. 17, 2014 MITT 5 Comments

    Summary

    • MITT has a 12.6% dividend that appears to be stable.
    • MITT has gained book value in all three quarters of 2014 for a total of $1.19 per common share through Q3 2014 (about 6.2%).
    • The total economic gain so far in 2014 is 15.6%. It may be over 20% for FY2014.
  • 18.8% Dividend Western Asset Mortgage Capital Knocked It Out Of The Park In Q3
    Nov. 17, 2014 WMC 23 Comments

    Summary

    • WMC raised its dividend from $0.67 to $0.70 for Q3 2014 (18.8% annually).
    • WMC outperformed on book value loss in Q3 2014 compared to its peers. It lost just -0.32% of its book value (from $15.31 to $15.26).
    • WMC made a number of management moves in Q3 2014, which to this observer show good management sense.
    • WMC on October 30, 2014 added two new members to its board in order to improve its overall governance and management.
  • 13.1% Distribution Linn Energy Had A Good Q3, But It May Be In Trouble If Oil Prices Don't Rise. Sell?
    Nov. 14, 2014 LINE, LNCO 175 Comments

    Summary

    • LINE has had distribution coverages greater than 1.0x for the last two quarters.
    • LINE guidance indicates that the distribution coverage will sink significantly under 1.0x for Q4 2014.
    • Current low oil prices, about 65% oil hedging in 2015, a $75/barrel WTI forecast by Goldman Sachs for FY2015, etc. spell trouble ahead for LINE.