Weyerhaeuser May Be A Good Place To Put Your Money In Today's Market [View article]
smurf: I should add that analysts estimates are notoriously behind the times. The average analysts' estimate is 2.6 (12 analysts). This is a HOLD. It is up from last week's 2.8. This means some other analysts are changing their opinions in a positive way (to BUY).
I like it because the technicals and fundamentals indicate that it should not go down much. That applies to both the stock price and the lumber prices. Rather there is some evidence to indicate that it should go up. With an EU recession coming and maybe a worldwide slowdown, this can be important. WY will pay a good dividend. Plus even if it goes down a little, it is likely to pop right back up because it is both fundamentally and technically set to rise. This is comforting to me. It is much better than many oil stocks at the moment. It is much better than many tech stocks, which will likely go down as the economy does. The lumber industry is much thinner. Plus the China infrastructure build out is in play again. Plus the US new home building has been falling for years. It is finally starting to show glimmers of a recovery. Many people want to buy new homes. They don't like the aggravation of problems with old home. The "silent" demand has been building up. It could stay silent for a while longer if the recession hits the US, but that will only increase the eventual demand a year or two later. That is why I like WY.
Note: Someone has to be the first to raise a rating on a stock. Otherwise once a stock's rating went down, it would never go up. I like to think I am right. I like to think it is a good stock for the reasons I have stated. However, each investor should make up his/her own mind.
You doe sound like someone who pays too much attention to ratings and not enough to fundamentals. By the time all of the brokerages agree that a stock is a buy, it is usually time to sell the stock. The biggest profits are usually made by buying a 2 star stock, when you see improvement. Then you hopefully ride it up until it is a 4 or 5 star stock. You will not always be right, but the other way you will most likely be riding many stocks downward.
Weyerhaeuser May Be A Good Place To Put Your Money In Today's Market [View article]
smurf: Actually spending capital and "cash flow" are two different things.
From Yahoo Finance for TTM: Operating Cash Flow +318.00M Levered Free Cash Flow +217.00
These are not negative.
From Investopedia: An accounting statement called the "statement of cash flows", which shows the amount of cash generated and used by a company in a given period. It is calculated by adding noncash charges (such as depreciation) to net income after taxes. Cash flow can be attributed to a specific project, or to a business as a whole. Cash flow can be used as an indication of a company's financial strength.
Weyerhaeuser May Be A Good Place To Put Your Money In Today's Market [View article]
smurf: You can only really go back to 2010+ on this one. WY had to pay $B's to become an REIT. That hurt it short term. Yes, WY was losing money a long time before that. However, I see the improvement. I'm not sure why you don't.
Germany's 'Merkeltilism' Isn't Working - It Won't Ever For The PIIGS [View article]
Wildcard: Actually Fiat's aren't bad cars. If a comparable Fiat sold for a much cheaper price, I think a lot of people would have to consider it. Some are so brand conscious that they would not. Some are so convinced of German superiority in engineering that they would not. However, I have seen Japanese cars replace many US made cars over the years. When the Japanese cars first came to the US market, they were considered JUNK. The opposite is closer to the truth now. When Hyundai's came to the US markets, they were considered JUNK. They have been making steady inroads to a better reputation.
If Fiat could gain more market share through pricing as both of the above did at the start (and Hyundai still is), it could make improvements, and it could gain more market share. I have little doubt its engineering would also improve. The Japanese engineering definitely has. Hyundai's engineering has too. What makes you think the Fiat situation would be different. You cite their engineering skill yourself. Ferrari's have been world famous as race cars for years, although they have not done as well in recent years. It is not hard to envision a comeback. It is not hard to envision Fiat as a hugely successful car company.
The point of the article was not to comapre Greece to Italy. It was more to show how big a competitive disadvantage the PIIGS are currently facing. If you read some of the comments by me above, you will see that in many ways I agree with you about many of the problems with the Greek government.
Germany's 'Merkeltilism' Isn't Working - It Won't Ever For The PIIGS [View article]
Alexand2: It is obvious to some. For those who didn't understand, I put in a concrete example about Volkswagen and Fiat cars above. Please read that to clarify the situation for you. If you were a better economist, I think my statements would have been clear to you. However, more explanation was apparently needed for those with less economic knowledge.
Germany's 'Merkeltilism' Isn't Working - It Won't Ever For The PIIGS [View article]
Wildcard: This is not meant to say that Germany, the strongest EU economy, would do badly. It is merely pointing out that Germany is effectively practicing mercantilism within the EU (and thue outside it to a great extent). This is hurting the weaker EU economies especially. It virtually precludes the idea that any of those economies will be able to recover under the currently system.
Consider that the PIIGS may have tried to ignore their ever bigger problems. This then caused their current situation to a large extent. The retreat of Greeks into socialism may have been due in part to frustration with the free enterprise system that wasn't working due to German mercantilism.
Consider that the US citizens consider themselves the world's big capitalists. Yet Congress has failed to deal with the runaway entitlement programs, especially the health care system. Obamacare does not adequately address the Medicare/Medicaid problems. Rather it likely costs more than the previous system. In that light it is easy to see how the Greeks essentially followed the same kind of path. Yes, they were irresponsible. However, their leadership failed as they despaired of having only tourism as a viable industry. The effective mercantilism of the Germans likely had a lot to do with that.
There are not clear cut answers or directions of blame. This is not productive at this point. Nowyou can only ask, how can Greece get out of this? More austerity will not do the trick. A minor recovery will not solve the problem that they are not competitive with the German economy (businesses), which has become ever stronger over time due in part to the effective German mercantilism. Greeks will not cut their pay as a simple fluctuation in a currency would, if the Greeks had their own currency. This would motivate them to do better. It would also take away the advantage that the single currency is giving the Germans. Their own currency would allow the Greeks to claw back some of the business thay have lost. the alternative solution would be to have the EU be a real union in which Euro bonds were one rate that each country's federal government had to pay (no German use of Bunds). There would also need to be Euro Area taxes that would then be distributed as needed to the areas that needed tehm most.
I don't believe Germany would ever agree to this. Therefore Greece has to eventually convert back to Drachmas. It has to be able to monetize debt. It has to be able to effectively give pay cuts through currency devaluation. People will not put up with direct pay cuts. Only then can its businesses regain some of their lost business.
Germany's 'Merkeltilism' Isn't Working - It Won't Ever For The PIIGS [View article]
As a concrete example, if Italy had its own currency, salaries would effectively fluctuate with how the strength of the Italian economy was viewed by the other countries. It would now be viewed as much weaker than Germany's or France's. This would mean the italian currency would be devalued relative to these currencies. The Italians would be paid less. Germany would be viewed as the strongest economy in the EU. Its currency would be bid up. Its salaries would consequently be effectively increased. What does this mean?
It means a Fiat comparable to a Volkswagen that each nwo sell for $10,000 would sell for say $8000 for the Fiat and $12,000 for the Volkswagen. Do you think the Fiat would capture a greater share of the market under the independent currency system or under the one Euro currency system? Take my word for it, Fiat would get a bigger share of the market. When the Italian share of the market grew enough, the Italian economy would be viewed as stronger. The currencies would approach each other more closely. However, Fiat would have the chance to hlsl onto its market share in this case (or even continue to grow its share). This is a normal balancing system. The current system is an aberration with an severely incomplete connection of the countries. It gives Germany a grossly unfair advantage to capture market share (and retain it). Italy and others are destined to weaken further under the current system.
Germany's 'Merkeltilism' Isn't Working - It Won't Ever For The PIIGS [View article]
Obamitall: Greece's biggest problem is that they let too much of the country effectively work for the government. Then people could in less dire times essentially vote themselves a raise as the majority (or a huge bloc) wanted the same thing. This situation led to inefficiency and overpay.
The retirement ages were much too low. The retirement benefits were too great. You cannot guarantee retirement funds to the increasingly young, when you do not have the money to pay for them.
With regard to collecting taxes, that is probably not a huge issue. People simply cannot pay taxes with money they do not have. In these hard times, many do not have the money. This is a sign that the economy is not working. It is not so much a sign of the failure of the government or the poopulace. At some point too much tax becomes too much of a burden.
I am not trying to say that Greece had no problems. It did. I am merely saying the basis is not there for Greece to recover. Instead the current path dictates that the Greek situation is only likely to get worse rather than better.
Germany's 'Merkeltilism' Isn't Working - It Won't Ever For The PIIGS [View article]
Involiquid: You have missed the whole mercantilism point if you think that. Perhaps you need to read up on this type of virtual economic war. If Germany had its own currency, it would be valued much higher than the current Euro valuation relative to other currencies. If Greece or any of the PIIGS had their own currencies, they would be valued at less than the Euro. All this means that Germany can sell its products for say $10 when they would normally cost say Italy $12 if each had a separate currency. While Italy will sell its products for $10 when they would normally cost $8 if Italy had a separate currency. Combining these two cases gives Germany a huge economic advantage. It can sell its products for below market value in the EU. Italy will have to sell its products for above market value. This means Italy has a huge disadvantage. If Italy had its own currency, it would pay its workers in that currency. This would likely be less because of its lower place in the economic hierarchy. Its currency would also require less German Marks to buy it. Thsi would make Italy's products more desireable in Germany (more saleable). The reverse would be true of German products in Italy. In this way Italy with hard work could "possibly" eventually even the economic tables. It could grab a larger part of the sales pie. This would eventually translate into greater economic health.
Germany's 'Merkeltilism' Isn't Working - It Won't Ever For The PIIGS [View article]
This article tries to point out that it is more than just a question of working hard or not. Too may people credit the German economic prowess to hard work. That may be part of it, but is only a part of it. German effective mercantilism within the EU is a big advantage. Why do you think so many in the US have been complaining about China's currency manipulation (mercantilism) ?
Statoil May Be One Of The Better Places To Put Your Money [View article]
There are concerns, but Russia is probably not as worrisome as it used to be. This is more true of offshore Russia. They want STO's expertise and money. Really even CVX, XOM, RDS, etc. like to split up their development properties with others so they don't take too big a risk in any one area by themselves. Dry wells don't hurt as much when you own 50% or less. I believe Russia signed agreements for other areas with other major non-Russian oil companies. It smacks or standard oil development business. My hope is that this feeling will prove to be true. Still more risk than offshore Norway, US, UK, etc. Africa is usually considered much more volatile. Still wells are usually not appropriated. You just have to worry about rebels and/or wars.
Sell Into The Range Resources Rally [View article]
DPH18: You make several good points. FYI, if my memory serves, the break even point for cost for RRC was $2.73. there is not much profit below $3.
I agree that being able to produce cheaply is a factor, but it is not the only factor. I agree that COG and RRC are tow of the lowest cost producers. However, whether the stock has rallied or not has very little correlation to whether the company is going to profit much in the near future. Very few saw the depth of the natural gas crash coming. I would hazard that many are still not aware of the seriousness of the situation. Others, even Congress people, seem unaware of how much a natgas for transportation bill would help this situation. Most are oblivious to the fact that the current drilling, even with cut backs, is still increasing the amount of natural gas produced considerably. Last I looked there were still 598 rigs devoted to natural gas drilling in the US (land based). I believe the natgas prices still have another leg down, without some significant news that I haven't heard. This means that companies with a high percentage of production that is natural gas will continue to be hurt badly. RRC's hedging will help this. However, there is currently little to no hedging for 2014. With the EU crisis possibly leading to a US recession and a Chinese hard landing (they have a lot of potential bad loans), a recessionary/slow economy could go on for some time. This would curb speculative rises in natural gas prices.
Companies with much more oil production and oil properties will do better because that is the energy most in demand by virtually all countries.
Some are expecting a big pick up in US demand due to the LNG exports. However, the last I heard the Sabine Pass facility was the only one in the US that even had full approval. The new one (online in 2015) in BC, Canada will also allow some export. However, this will not put a huge dent in supply.
Some are expecting the world prices of natgas outside the North America to ramain high. However, China is supposed ot have the largest shale gas resources (most undeveloped so far) in the world. Australia and that area also seem to have huge fields. Poland is supposed to have sizeable fields. Argentina is supposed to be shale gas rich. In time these areas will have developed more of their resources. This may push world prices down from their current levels. The US is ahead of the curve in shale gas and oil development. Others will eventually catch up. The same thing may happen in other areas that happened in the US.
NGLs prices fell slightly (say 55-10%) year over year in the last year as production climbed. Wet gas productions will liekly continue to be much more cost effective than natgas, but it is starting to feel pressure too. The key here may be how fast refining grows the export of refined products such as ethylene. However, as I mentioned above, that business may not be long lasting as the rest of the world catches up to the US in shale gas production.
In sum there is every reason to believe that natgas prices will remain under pressure for some time. This means that the companies with high percentages of production in natgas will tend to underperform more oil-centric development companies. RRC has gotten a lot of mileage out of being technically expert in natgas development and production. However, that does not change the fundamentals of natgas overall. The premium people are now paying for high percentage natgas producing companies such as COG Price/Book of 3.38 and RRC P/B of +4, is unwarranted in this environment even given any technical expertise they may have in natgas development and production. They will survive because they are likely too good not to. However, investors will eventually wise up to the seriousness of the natgas situation. Then they will knock these companies down to much more reasonable price/book ratios. These companies depend on great growth statistics to encourage investors to bid them up. Such growth, at least in earnings, seems unlikely to be forthcoming. These companies may even lose money for a while. RRC has lost money in the last two quarters based on GAAP earnings. It lost money in FY2010. It does not deserve the premium customers are paying for it. A few years ago we saw the bottom drop out of CHK when the bottom dropped out of natgas prices the first time. Now we have seen the bottom drop out of natgas to a much lower level yet. Heavily natgas companies will get hurt. Sometimes it is really that simple.
Statoil May Be One Of The Better Places To Put Your Money [View article]
dsr70: You calculation of the addition to their reserves is far under done. The big North Sea field alone is supposed to be 1.7B to 3.3B boe alone. The Russian development areas are potentially HUGE 10B - 100B boe. It is too soon to try to evaluate them rigorously. The many more fields are not negligible. STO should have a bright future.
Statoil May Be One Of The Better Places To Put Your Money [View article]
dsr70: The knock on STO for the last several years was as you say. However, the most recent results contradict this. Plus this article attempts to show why the recent turn around in adding to reserves and increasing production is not a flash in the pan. STO has clearly turned the corner.
Weyerhaeuser May Be A Good Place To Put Your Money In Today's Market [View article]
I should add that analysts estimates are notoriously behind the times. The average analysts' estimate is 2.6 (12 analysts). This is a HOLD. It is up from last week's 2.8. This means some other analysts are changing their opinions in a positive way (to BUY).
I like it because the technicals and fundamentals indicate that it should not go down much. That applies to both the stock price and the lumber prices. Rather there is some evidence to indicate that it should go up. With an EU recession coming and maybe a worldwide slowdown, this can be important. WY will pay a good dividend. Plus even if it goes down a little, it is likely to pop right back up because it is both fundamentally and technically set to rise. This is comforting to me. It is much better than many oil stocks at the moment. It is much better than many tech stocks, which will likely go down as the economy does. The lumber industry is much thinner. Plus the China infrastructure build out is in play again. Plus the US new home building has been falling for years. It is finally starting to show glimmers of a recovery. Many people want to buy new homes. They don't like the aggravation of problems with old home. The "silent" demand has been building up. It could stay silent for a while longer if the recession hits the US, but that will only increase the eventual demand a year or two later. That is why I like WY.
Note: Someone has to be the first to raise a rating on a stock. Otherwise once a stock's rating went down, it would never go up. I like to think I am right. I like to think it is a good stock for the reasons I have stated. However, each investor should make up his/her own mind.
You doe sound like someone who pays too much attention to ratings and not enough to fundamentals. By the time all of the brokerages agree that a stock is a buy, it is usually time to sell the stock. The biggest profits are usually made by buying a 2 star stock, when you see improvement. Then you hopefully ride it up until it is a 4 or 5 star stock. You will not always be right, but the other way you will most likely be riding many stocks downward.
Weyerhaeuser May Be A Good Place To Put Your Money In Today's Market [View article]
From Yahoo Finance for TTM:
Operating Cash Flow +318.00M
Levered Free Cash Flow +217.00
These are not negative.
From Investopedia:
An accounting statement called the "statement of cash flows", which shows the amount of cash generated and used by a company in a given period. It is calculated by adding noncash charges (such as depreciation) to net income after taxes. Cash flow can be attributed to a specific project, or to a business as a whole. Cash flow can be used as an indication of a company's financial strength.
Weyerhaeuser May Be A Good Place To Put Your Money In Today's Market [View article]
Germany's 'Merkeltilism' Isn't Working - It Won't Ever For The PIIGS [View article]
If Fiat could gain more market share through pricing as both of the above did at the start (and Hyundai still is), it could make improvements, and it could gain more market share. I have little doubt its engineering would also improve. The Japanese engineering definitely has. Hyundai's engineering has too. What makes you think the Fiat situation would be different. You cite their engineering skill yourself. Ferrari's have been world famous as race cars for years, although they have not done as well in recent years. It is not hard to envision a comeback. It is not hard to envision Fiat as a hugely successful car company.
The point of the article was not to comapre Greece to Italy. It was more to show how big a competitive disadvantage the PIIGS are currently facing. If you read some of the comments by me above, you will see that in many ways I agree with you about many of the problems with the Greek government.
Germany's 'Merkeltilism' Isn't Working - It Won't Ever For The PIIGS [View article]
Germany's 'Merkeltilism' Isn't Working - It Won't Ever For The PIIGS [View article]
Consider that the PIIGS may have tried to ignore their ever bigger problems. This then caused their current situation to a large extent. The retreat of Greeks into socialism may have been due in part to frustration with the free enterprise system that wasn't working due to German mercantilism.
Consider that the US citizens consider themselves the world's big capitalists. Yet Congress has failed to deal with the runaway entitlement programs, especially the health care system. Obamacare does not adequately address the Medicare/Medicaid problems. Rather it likely costs more than the previous system. In that light it is easy to see how the Greeks essentially followed the same kind of path. Yes, they were irresponsible. However, their leadership failed as they despaired of having only tourism as a viable industry. The effective mercantilism of the Germans likely had a lot to do with that.
There are not clear cut answers or directions of blame. This is not productive at this point. Nowyou can only ask, how can Greece get out of this? More austerity will not do the trick. A minor recovery will not solve the problem that they are not competitive with the German economy (businesses), which has become ever stronger over time due in part to the effective German mercantilism. Greeks will not cut their pay as a simple fluctuation in a currency would, if the Greeks had their own currency. This would motivate them to do better. It would also take away the advantage that the single currency is giving the Germans. Their own currency would allow the Greeks to claw back some of the business thay have lost. the alternative solution would be to have the EU be a real union in which Euro bonds were one rate that each country's federal government had to pay (no German use of Bunds). There would also need to be Euro Area taxes that would then be distributed as needed to the areas that needed tehm most.
I don't believe Germany would ever agree to this. Therefore Greece has to eventually convert back to Drachmas. It has to be able to monetize debt. It has to be able to effectively give pay cuts through currency devaluation. People will not put up with direct pay cuts. Only then can its businesses regain some of their lost business.
Germany's 'Merkeltilism' Isn't Working - It Won't Ever For The PIIGS [View article]
It means a Fiat comparable to a Volkswagen that each nwo sell for $10,000 would sell for say $8000 for the Fiat and $12,000 for the Volkswagen. Do you think the Fiat would capture a greater share of the market under the independent currency system or under the one Euro currency system? Take my word for it, Fiat would get a bigger share of the market. When the Italian share of the market grew enough, the Italian economy would be viewed as stronger. The currencies would approach each other more closely. However, Fiat would have the chance to hlsl onto its market share in this case (or even continue to grow its share). This is a normal balancing system. The current system is an aberration with an severely incomplete connection of the countries. It gives Germany a grossly unfair advantage to capture market share (and retain it). Italy and others are destined to weaken further under the current system.
Germany's 'Merkeltilism' Isn't Working - It Won't Ever For The PIIGS [View article]
The retirement ages were much too low. The retirement benefits were too great. You cannot guarantee retirement funds to the increasingly young, when you do not have the money to pay for them.
With regard to collecting taxes, that is probably not a huge issue. People simply cannot pay taxes with money they do not have. In these hard times, many do not have the money. This is a sign that the economy is not working. It is not so much a sign of the failure of the government or the poopulace. At some point too much tax becomes too much of a burden.
I am not trying to say that Greece had no problems. It did. I am merely saying the basis is not there for Greece to recover. Instead the current path dictates that the Greek situation is only likely to get worse rather than better.
Germany's 'Merkeltilism' Isn't Working - It Won't Ever For The PIIGS [View article]
Germany's 'Merkeltilism' Isn't Working - It Won't Ever For The PIIGS [View article]
Statoil May Be One Of The Better Places To Put Your Money [View article]
Sell Into The Range Resources Rally [View article]
I agree that being able to produce cheaply is a factor, but it is not the only factor. I agree that COG and RRC are tow of the lowest cost producers. However, whether the stock has rallied or not has very little correlation to whether the company is going to profit much in the near future. Very few saw the depth of the natural gas crash coming. I would hazard that many are still not aware of the seriousness of the situation. Others, even Congress people, seem unaware of how much a natgas for transportation bill would help this situation. Most are oblivious to the fact that the current drilling, even with cut backs, is still increasing the amount of natural gas produced considerably. Last I looked there were still 598 rigs devoted to natural gas drilling in the US (land based). I believe the natgas prices still have another leg down, without some significant news that I haven't heard. This means that companies with a high percentage of production that is natural gas will continue to be hurt badly. RRC's hedging will help this. However, there is currently little to no hedging for 2014. With the EU crisis possibly leading to a US recession and a Chinese hard landing (they have a lot of potential bad loans), a recessionary/slow economy could go on for some time. This would curb speculative rises in natural gas prices.
Companies with much more oil production and oil properties will do better because that is the energy most in demand by virtually all countries.
Some are expecting a big pick up in US demand due to the LNG exports. However, the last I heard the Sabine Pass facility was the only one in the US that even had full approval. The new one (online in 2015) in BC, Canada will also allow some export. However, this will not put a huge dent in supply.
Some are expecting the world prices of natgas outside the North America to ramain high. However, China is supposed ot have the largest shale gas resources (most undeveloped so far) in the world. Australia and that area also seem to have huge fields. Poland is supposed to have sizeable fields. Argentina is supposed to be shale gas rich. In time these areas will have developed more of their resources. This may push world prices down from their current levels. The US is ahead of the curve in shale gas and oil development. Others will eventually catch up. The same thing may happen in other areas that happened in the US.
NGLs prices fell slightly (say 55-10%) year over year in the last year as production climbed. Wet gas productions will liekly continue to be much more cost effective than natgas, but it is starting to feel pressure too. The key here may be how fast refining grows the export of refined products such as ethylene. However, as I mentioned above, that business may not be long lasting as the rest of the world catches up to the US in shale gas production.
In sum there is every reason to believe that natgas prices will remain under pressure for some time. This means that the companies with high percentages of production in natgas will tend to underperform more oil-centric development companies. RRC has gotten a lot of mileage out of being technically expert in natgas development and production. However, that does not change the fundamentals of natgas overall. The premium people are now paying for high percentage natgas producing companies such as COG Price/Book of 3.38 and RRC P/B of +4, is unwarranted in this environment even given any technical expertise they may have in natgas development and production. They will survive because they are likely too good not to. However, investors will eventually wise up to the seriousness of the natgas situation. Then they will knock these companies down to much more reasonable price/book ratios. These companies depend on great growth statistics to encourage investors to bid them up. Such growth, at least in earnings, seems unlikely to be forthcoming. These companies may even lose money for a while. RRC has lost money in the last two quarters based on GAAP earnings. It lost money in FY2010. It does not deserve the premium customers are paying for it. A few years ago we saw the bottom drop out of CHK when the bottom dropped out of natgas prices the first time. Now we have seen the bottom drop out of natgas to a much lower level yet. Heavily natgas companies will get hurt. Sometimes it is really that simple.
Statoil May Be One Of The Better Places To Put Your Money [View article]
Statoil May Be One Of The Better Places To Put Your Money [View article]
Sell Into The Range Resources Rally [View article]