Sorry, I meant Mar. 9, 2009, but it shouldn't make a lot of difference. Below I give the performance of 4 of the newly added Russell 3000 stocks that I have been following.
MED 3/9/09 $4.42 6/29/09 $11.01 CNU 3/9/09 $1.61 6/29/09 $2.48 HEB 3/9/09 $0.40 6/29/09 $2.57 BDSI 3/9/09 $2.88 6/29/09 $6.91
As you can see there have been some pretty hefty gains. HEB and BDSI are biotech stocks. They are both still waiting on FDA approval of a drug. In each case the FDA is past its due date for the approval. It is my understanding that the FDA is simply running behind in each of these two cases. The approval rate for stocks that reach this stage is 80%. In HEB's case, the drug would be an orphan drug. This would push the odds for approval still higher.
First this is a bit of an illusion. If you didn't get in pre-IPO on Rosetta Stone, you really haven't made much money on it. It opened at about $25. It closed at $27.60 today. Considering it missed the entire down section of this year's market, you cannot really compare it to the S&P500. It has only been actively traded during the market rally months. Most IPO's were after the March lows. It's an unfair comparison for the S&P500 index.
I don't think this is a year for IPO's. Their performance will likely lag more mature stocks, if you can manage to pick good ones. If you do a comparison of the performance of the stocks recently added to the Russell 3000 from March 10, to today, I am sure these stocks would far outperform the IPO index you have mentioned. These stocks are at least as likely to do well in the next year. Plus they will all have institutional ownership due to being in the Russell 3000. They will likely do as well or better in a downturn. I have attached a link to a list of the stocks added to the Russell 3000 today. seekingalpha.com/artic...
Buy Hemispherix Before Ampligen's FDA Approval [View article]
The specific cause of CFS is not the biggest issue. For instance, CFS could be purely genetic. However, this may then predispose individuals to greater viral susceptibility, etc. If Ampligen's only role is in fighting off these essentially secondary problems, which are often present, it is still a good treatment. It should be approved.
I have often taken antibiotics, when I am very sure I have a viral infection. The reason is simply that I often get secondary bacterial infections in my lungs during a bad viral infection. When the antibiotics help to cure the secondary infections, they make it easier for my body to recover from the viral infections. If all Ampligen does is help in this indirect way, it is still helpful. It should still be approved.
Buy Hemispherix Before Ampligen's FDA Approval [View article]
Yet another (more recent article) from the CDC. this one suggests that genetics may be the root cause of CFS. However, this does not take away from the fact that Ampligen still does a good job of helping to ameliorate (or cure) the disease. The link is below.
Buy Hemispherix Before Ampligen's FDA Approval [View article]
littlebuffet:
From "The World Journal of Biological Psychiatry":
"Chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) is now recognized as a medial disorder. In contrast to recent related reports, the present review focuses primarily on aetiological aspects of CFS. Four major hypotheses are reviewed. (1) Although CFS is often associated with viral infection, the presence of viruses has as yet not consistently been detected. (2) It is not clear whether anomalies of the HPA axis often observed in CFS, are cause or the consequences of the disorder. (3) Immune dysfunction as the cause of CFS is thus far the weakest hypothesis. (4) The psychiatric and psychosocial hypothesis denies the existence of CFS as a disease entity. Accordingly, the fatigue symptoms are assumed to be the consequence of other (somatic) diseases. Other possible causes of CFS are oxidative stress and genetic predisposition. In CFS cognitive behavioural therapy is most commonly used. This therapy, however, appears to be ineffective in many patients. The suggested causes of CFS and the divergent reactions to therapy may be explained by the lack of recognition of subgroups. Identification of subtypes may lead to more effective therapeutic interventions."
There are probably more definitive articles. However, this should give you a clue that they have found a strong correlation between CFS and viral infections. Since we know from the flu virus vaccine with Ampligen adjuvant that Ampligen is terrifically helpful in engendering flu immunity, it is not much of a leap to believe that it would help immensely in treating CFS. Ampligen has also been shown to improve immune funtionality. Another of the posible causes of CFS that have been suggested. I could go on. Basically the breadbasket of possible causes of CFS all seem to be things which would likely be improved by treatment with Ampligen. Since Ampligen does not seem to be harmful, it would seem to be something that should be approved for use to treat CFS symptoms.
In another study: "If you have chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) and you're female, you probably woke up this morning with a really low cortisol level. A study accepted for publication in the Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism (JCEM) links low levels of the hormone to severe fatigue in female CFS patients - but not in male patients. "
Whether or not Ampligen is effective against all possible causes of CFS is not necessarily at issue. If it has been shown to be generally effective against CFS (or some large percentage of CFS patients), the actual cause does not necessarily have to be proven. HEB only has to prove effectiveness and safety. From what I understand, they have done this. Plus the possibility of viral and immune system causes for a good percentage of the CFS cases links in well with the research done on Ampligen as an adjuvant for flu vaccines. That work provides further indirect evidence that Ampligen should be approved. Medical scientists have often in the past developed treatment regimens without knowing the precise cause of a disease. That is quite simply nothing new. The big issues are efficacy in a substantial percentage of cases and safety.
In sum I think the odds are excellent that Ampligen for CFS will be approved.
Buy Hemispherix Before Ampligen's FDA Approval [View article]
HEB is being added to the Russell 3000 Index at the end of this month. If people believed this stock was going to be a flop, it would not have gained enough acclaim to be added to the Russell 3000 Index. This status will also mean that a number of funds will be forced to buy the stock. This should push the stock higher.
Obviously the approval of Ampligen for CFS is still of primary importance to a major move upward in the stock.
Buy Hemispherix Before Ampligen's FDA Approval [View article]
I am not tracking the overall FDA date performance. However, I am also invested in BDSI, which is awaiting an approval on Onsolis. It had a decsion date of 6/15/09. The FDA has made no announcement yet on Onsolis. The FDA has not said they need an extension on that date either.
Buy Hemispherix Before Ampligen's FDA Approval [View article]
My comment on a result from the FDA was based more on common sense than on specific information. The original date was May 25, 2009. The FDA did not say they would extend that date by 3 months. They instead just said they were running a little behind. In normal cases a result would then be expected within 3 weeks. This would put the decision date at about June 16. We have passed that already by one week. The FDA would have asked for a specific delay period (say of 3 mo.'s), if they needed it that desperately. Since this also has not occurred, one is left with the thought that the FDA is just running farther behind than they expected. If you double the original expectation of 3 weeks to 6 weeks, you then get a date that is in the next two weeks. One might argue that you could pose the same argument in two weeks. True! However, that would mean that the FDA was then getting close to the 3 mo. figure for a delay. If they expected that, they would likely have announced a delay in the first place. Thus my common sense tells me that the FDA announcement is due out soon, likely within the next two weeks.
The Fed, The Congress, And the Treasury: Where to from Here? [View article]
Another possible scenario for solving the housing crisis might be for the Fed to become a landlord. Instead of just buying Treasuries, the Fed could buy homes outright. It could then rent them out for a number of years, so they did not just lose money. In this way the Fed could stop the downward spiral in prices. This would help individuals and banks. The Fed might even decide to keep some homes longer term as a tool. If the real estate market started overheating at some point in the future, the Fed could then start to sell off some of its stock of houses. This might actually help the Fed to manage the economy better. Plus it would not be seen to be as bad as buying Treasuries. This is seen as monetizing debt. The houses would actually be real assets. Plus buying the houses would accomplish a lot of what the Fed wants to accomplish.
Of course, this would necessitate a certain amount of infrastructure build in the Fed to manage this. However, it is actually workable. Likely it would have to be limited to the larger metropolitan areas (just so it is manageable), but it could actually work.
Bond Expert Monday Outlook: Positioning for the Week Ahead [View article]
John Jansen: The World Bank prediction out this morning calls for a world economy shrinkage of 2.9% this year, not 2.0%. They also called for the developed nations to do much better than the others. This no doubt has a lot to do with the bond performance today. There seems to be a "flight to quality" going on. I tend to believe the huge Treasury auctions throughout this week will tend to override that. Still nothing is sure in today's market, especially with the Fed announcement coming on Wednesday.
You also have to consider that the ECB has been dropping hints that they may lower their lending rate from 1% in the near future. This would tend to push the US Dollar up (probably US bonds too).
Your logic works, but there are also fundamental reasons for shorting (and likely explain the insider selling). The price of polysilicone has gone down considerably from last year. The polysilicone makers margins have gone down from last year. The price of polysilicone is predicted to go down approx. another 30% for the rest of this year. Polysilicone is fully 1/2 the cost of manufacture of polysilicone solar. All this ultimately means that FSLR's price advantage in solar over polysilicone solar is disappearing if not gone. With a virtually even playing field FSLR will have trouble winning clients (or even retaining clients). This will hurt FSLR's growth. The competition will also hurt FSLR's margins. FSLR likely has farther to fall.
Why Credit Card Defaults Affect All Consumers [View article]
Yesterday S&P cut the ratings on 18 US banks. It cut COF's rating to BBB/Negative. This doesn't sound promising for COF's near term price performance (or earnings performance).
Strong IPO Performance [View article]
MED 3/9/09 $4.42 6/29/09 $11.01
CNU 3/9/09 $1.61 6/29/09 $2.48
HEB 3/9/09 $0.40 6/29/09 $2.57
BDSI 3/9/09 $2.88 6/29/09 $6.91
As you can see there have been some pretty hefty gains. HEB and BDSI are biotech stocks. They are both still waiting on FDA approval of a drug. In each case the FDA is past its due date for the approval. It is my understanding that the FDA is simply running behind in each of these two cases. The approval rate for stocks that reach this stage is 80%. In HEB's case, the drug would be an orphan drug. This would push the odds for approval still higher.
Strong IPO Performance [View article]
I don't think this is a year for IPO's. Their performance will likely lag more mature stocks, if you can manage to pick good ones. If you do a comparison of the performance of the stocks recently added to the Russell 3000 from March 10, to today, I am sure these stocks would far outperform the IPO index you have mentioned. These stocks are at least as likely to do well in the next year. Plus they will all have institutional ownership due to being in the Russell 3000. They will likely do as well or better in a downturn. I have attached a link to a list of the stocks added to the Russell 3000 today.
seekingalpha.com/artic...
Buy Hemispherix Before Ampligen's FDA Approval [View article]
I have often taken antibiotics, when I am very sure I have a viral infection. The reason is simply that I often get secondary bacterial infections in my lungs during a bad viral infection. When the antibiotics help to cure the secondary infections, they make it easier for my body to recover from the viral infections. If all Ampligen does is help in this indirect way, it is still helpful. It should still be approved.
Buy Hemispherix Before Ampligen's FDA Approval [View article]
www.bio-medicine.org/m.../
Buy Hemispherix Before Ampligen's FDA Approval [View article]
chronicfatigue.about.c...
Buy Hemispherix Before Ampligen's FDA Approval [View article]
From "The World Journal of Biological Psychiatry":
"Chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) is now recognized as a medial disorder. In contrast to recent related reports, the present review focuses primarily on aetiological aspects of CFS. Four major hypotheses are reviewed. (1) Although CFS is often associated with viral infection, the presence of viruses has as yet not consistently been detected. (2) It is not clear whether anomalies of the HPA axis often observed in CFS, are cause or the consequences of the disorder. (3) Immune dysfunction as the cause of CFS is thus far the weakest hypothesis. (4) The psychiatric and psychosocial hypothesis denies the existence of CFS as a disease entity. Accordingly, the fatigue symptoms are assumed to be the consequence of other (somatic) diseases. Other possible causes of CFS are oxidative stress and genetic predisposition. In CFS cognitive behavioural therapy is most commonly used. This therapy, however, appears to be ineffective in many patients. The suggested causes of CFS and the divergent reactions to therapy may be explained by the lack of recognition of subgroups. Identification of subtypes may lead to more effective therapeutic interventions."
There are probably more definitive articles. However, this should give you a clue that they have found a strong correlation between CFS and viral infections. Since we know from the flu virus vaccine with Ampligen adjuvant that Ampligen is terrifically helpful in engendering flu immunity, it is not much of a leap to believe that it would help immensely in treating CFS. Ampligen has also been shown to improve immune funtionality. Another of the posible causes of CFS that have been suggested. I could go on. Basically the breadbasket of possible causes of CFS all seem to be things which would likely be improved by treatment with Ampligen. Since Ampligen does not seem to be harmful, it would seem to be something that should be approved for use to treat CFS symptoms.
In another study:
"If you have chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) and you're female, you probably woke up this morning with a really low cortisol level. A study accepted for publication in the Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism (JCEM) links low levels of the hormone to severe fatigue in female CFS patients - but not in male patients. "
Whether or not Ampligen is effective against all possible causes of CFS is not necessarily at issue. If it has been shown to be generally effective against CFS (or some large percentage of CFS patients), the actual cause does not necessarily have to be proven. HEB only has to prove effectiveness and safety. From what I understand, they have done this. Plus the possibility of viral and immune system causes for a good percentage of the CFS cases links in well with the research done on Ampligen as an adjuvant for flu vaccines. That work provides further indirect evidence that Ampligen should be approved. Medical scientists have often in the past developed treatment regimens without knowing the precise cause of a disease. That is quite simply nothing new. The big issues are efficacy in a substantial percentage of cases and safety.
In sum I think the odds are excellent that Ampligen for CFS will be approved.
Buy Hemispherix Before Ampligen's FDA Approval [View article]
Obviously the approval of Ampligen for CFS is still of primary importance to a major move upward in the stock.
Buy Hemispherix Before Ampligen's FDA Approval [View article]
Buy Hemispherix Before Ampligen's FDA Approval [View article]
Buy Hemispherix Before Ampligen's FDA Approval [View article]
Buy Hemispherix Before Ampligen's FDA Approval [View article]
www.pr-inside.com/hemi...
The Fed, The Congress, And the Treasury: Where to from Here? [View article]
Of course, this would necessitate a certain amount of infrastructure build in the Fed to manage this. However, it is actually workable. Likely it would have to be limited to the larger metropolitan areas (just so it is manageable), but it could actually work.
Bond Expert Monday Outlook: Positioning for the Week Ahead [View article]
You also have to consider that the ECB has been dropping hints that they may lower their lending rate from 1% in the near future. This would tend to push the US Dollar up (probably US bonds too).
First Solar Still a Short [View article]
Why Credit Card Defaults Affect All Consumers [View article]