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David White

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  • Are the Analysts Right About Netflix? [View article]
    HedgeFund Waterboy:
    I should mention that HFT has a distinctive pattern (computer generated). I recognized the pattern. The fact that they were using HFT to do a huge purchase for Soros doesn't make it not HFT (i.e. they split up the buy order into many many different orders in order to get a better overall price).
    Aug 20 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are the Analysts Right About Netflix? [View article]
    biobat:
    I should have mentioned that both AAPL and GOOG intend to be able to stream their media to their smart phones. This is probably another advantage over NFLX, which would have to play catch up.
    Aug 20 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are the Analysts Right About Netflix? [View article]
    biobat:
    If it launches with the eclat of the iPhone or the iPad, then it is a serious threat to NFLX. It really doesn't matter that an earlier form was available. A lot of what Jobs does is just brilliant marketing, but no one can deny it works. You can bet that continued sales of online media will be part of the plan. This is a threat to NFLX.
    Aug 20 02:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are the Analysts Right About Netflix? [View article]
    biobat:
    I would also point out that you do own an Android phone. The only alternative you mentioned was an iPhone. That kind of makes my point to a large degree.
    Aug 20 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are the Analysts Right About Netflix? [View article]
    NFLX has been puting in a slightly upward tilting flag for the last two days after a sharp move downward the prior 2 days. This is consistent with another coming sharp move downward. The recent big buy by Soros (HedgeFund Waterboy) could keep it going up a little longer than it might have though.
    Aug 20 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are the Analysts Right About Netflix? [View article]
    biobat: I should point out that neither AAPL nor GOOG has put out its first major product yet. GoogleTV and AppleTV are going to be those products. GoogleTV (last I heard) is supposed to debut within the next 2 months. I don't have a date on AppleTV. I am guessing MacWorld for the moment.
    Aug 20 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are the Analysts Right About Netflix? [View article]
    I should have pointed out that GoogleTV is supposed to be a free service. They expect to make their money from advertising. Some portion of the public will be happy to put up with advertising in order to get "free" service. Some of NFLX customers will prefer this option -- a net loss of customers to Google.
    Aug 20 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are the Analysts Right About Netflix? [View article]
    HedgeFund Waterboy:
    The editors changed the title of my article, so it doesn't really reflect my thoughts. The orignal title was, "NFLX Is Cycling Lower. Technicals and Fundamentals Agree.". The 6 month chart for NFLX is very indicative of a tiring uptrend. The three peaks of the fast stochastics seem a reliable pattern. The MACD and other indicators seem to be reinforcing this. The most recent economic news (the inital claims, the big trade deficit jump last month, the jobs#, the rising Initial Claims the lat 3 weeks, major economists' 2H GDP downgrades, etc.) seems to point strongly to a down turn or at least very troubled times ahead. The economic news alone is likely enough to make NFLX disappoint. That would make it go down. The fact that you have a host of other competitors that should be puting near term pressure on NFLX on top of significant economic concerns is an added reason to short.

    I have been wrong in the past. Anyone who has stuck his neck out has. The current set of facts seem to back up my thesis. That could perhaps change. If it does, I will change my position.

    As for Hurricane comments, I merely mentioned predictions by NOAA, etc. It was the best information available. Everyone knows it is just probabilities. If you play probabilities without betting too heavily on any one, you should come out a winner. I am optimistic about this probability. However, I do not claim it is anything but a probability. If you want to think the market will go up every year like it did last year, good luck to you.
    Aug 19 09:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are the Analysts Right About Netflix? [View article]
    HedgeFund Waterboy: I have made money on each sell of the market call I made in the last 2 months. The July 16 article call, I said in the comments I was selling out on Friday because Monday's were often up days. News the next week seemed to change the market direction. However, I made money on the roughly 300 pt down move. Check the comments.
    Aug 19 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are the Analysts Right About Netflix? [View article]
    HedgeFund Waterboy: The bounce up in NFLX today was likley just that -- a bounce. It sold heavily yesterday. It could, as the chart indicates go up either tomorrow or early next week (a little), but it seems very likely to be headed downward. It's recent crash after its earnings report is a good indication of how weak it really is. Somehow it rallied anyway recently. But they say a bulb burns brightest just before it goes out.

    I should couch my thesis by saying that the above is presuming the market will go sideways or down most of the time for the next few months. If it goes up demonstrably, the HFT traders will likely use that as an opportunity to short squeeze NFLX (very bad for shorters). They don't like to fight the tape though. Even today they didn't really come on hard in NFLX until the market stopped going down. NFLX is a perfect target for them as it is highly traded.


    Correction: The Price to Book ratio cited in the article should not have a % sign after it. NFLX has a high Price to Book ratio. If events transpire as it seems they must, NFLX seems very likely to disappoint in the very near future. It has a high PE, which means any little disappointment will send it lower. The economy will likely cause revisions downward by itself. If you add the competition coming from AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, BBY, and others, it seems virtually impossible for NFLX not to disappoint by the Oct-Dec Qtr's earnings. By the end of the July-Sept Qtr, I would expect NFLX to amend its guidance to reflect some of this new competition and the deteriorating economic signals. If NFLX's doesn't, they will likely just add a lot of lawsuits to their already prodigious problems.

    As for me losing in the markets. I have in the past at times, but I have been doing well recently. Of course, it is always wise not to bet too heavily on any one thing. If your opinion is as naive as it sounds, I can well believe you are having trouble though.
    Aug 19 08:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Cautious on Commodities [View article]
    roisescenario:
    I don't have an exact answer to your question. You do have a minor point. However, China has been tightening. They have especially tried to target speculators who were buying commodities (expecting a rise). The downturn in BDI is most likely due to a decrease in shipping charters due to a decrease in bulk materials imports (heavily due to China).

    That said I do know that a number of bulk shippers did have ships on order. Some have gotten new ones. Subtract the scrapped ones from that. Then you probably get a net gain in ships. That not enough doesn't explain the marked recent downturn. I could look up the exact figures, but it really isn't necessary for this article's point. The Chinese GDP lowering from 11.9% to 10.3% is substantiation enough that China has been importing less. You have also ignored the comments above which have described a miner vs Chinese manufacturer dispute. That too is likely to have played into the BDI fall.
    Jul 22 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You forgot Building Permits.
    Jul 20 12:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 5 Graphs of the Week: A Tough but Gradual Recovery [View article]
    Thanks for the graphs and the presentation. Well done. I am not thoroughly convinced of the strength of the recovery. There are many factors you haven't dealt with. However, I would point out that the biggest weakness in your charts is the Nonfarm Payrolls chart. If you remove the census workers from the chart, that chart will then remain uptrending. There were actually +100,000 jobs gained last month if you discount the -225,000 temporary census workers who were laid off. By taking out the Census workers, the rise in the Nonfarm Payrolls chart is a little shallower, but it is still trending solidly upward.
    Jul 6 05:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Senate Wall Of Shame [View instapost]
    CNBC aired comments from both Greenspan and Senator Corker today. Both echo my sentiments about the FinReg bill. Greenspan specifically said he thought some parts of it would have to be repealed. He also said he thought the many of the authors of the bill did not understand the economic implications of what they had created.
    Jul 1 02:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP (BP) used a cheaper, riskier well design on more than 30% of its deepwater wells in the Gulf of Mexico, including the well that exploded two months ago. BP says the "long string" design is widely used and safe.  [View news story]
    The oil leak is greater since they cut the dented section off. This would be true of any high viscosity fluid. The estimate may have been off at the beginning, but you cannot compare the current leak to the beginning leak.

    That said, BP does seem to have been careless at best. The long single string design is riskier than that described by CVX and XOM in Congress. Plus they clearly had problems. Yet they proceeded anyway. This was likely due to pressure from management to keep the costs from escalating further. They were already more than 1 month behind schedule. Unfortunately for BP this is the definition of negligence, even if it is hard to exactly assign the blame. The only thing that remains to be determined is whether they were grossly negligent or not.
    Jun 20 02:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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