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David White

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  • Linn Energy Is Moving Ahead In Spite Of Hedge Fund Machinations [View article]
    A recent announcement on August 30, 2013 states a dividend of $0.2416/mo. or $2.90/year. This is a bit less, but in the same ballpark. I haven't yet checked to see if any special dividend was paid out earlier this year.

    However, the plan was for the BRY deal to relatively quickly push the dividend to the $3.08 area; and later to push it to the $3.30 area.
    Sep 15 12:45 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Far Oversold, 15.1% Dividend Payer Armour Residential REIT Is A Buy [View article]
    Most people are apparently following your reasoning without actually paying the slightest attention to the fundamentals of the markets they are in. The fundamentals of those markets disagree with you. Did you bother to read the article?
    May 28 10:34 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 8.5% Dividend Payer Vanguard Natural Resources Is An Even Safer Haven With Higher NatGas Prices [View article]
    Uncle Pie: I covered this clearly in the first paragraph for everyone to see this time. You clearly are interested in insulting me, not in providing people with information. Plus your information is less complete than mine. It is an LLC that acts as an LP for tax purposes. It has no GP and and no IDRs. Go soak your head. Please refrain from further insults. I quote the first paragraph:

    " It has grown the dividend 43% since 2007. The dividend/distribution is currently $2.43 per year (8.5%). It is a limited liability company that behaves as an LP for distributions/dividends and tax purposes. It has no general partner and no IDRs. It pays its distribution/dividend monthly; and investors will need to file a K-1 form for this stock."
    Apr 1 06:40 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • And Symantec: Still Growing, Just Slower, Buy On Dip [View article]
    You neglected to mention the 4+ year downtrend in GAAP net income. You omitted that it has lost money on GAAP for every quarter since July 31, 2012. It lost about $270 million in FY2013 (CRM's fiscal year 2013 ends in Jan. 2013). You omitted the $1.5B+ in Goodwill it carries on its books. You omitted the $1.2B in stock based compensation already promised for 2014 (this fiscal year for CRM) - 2017. You omitted that the revenue growth forecast slowed to about 25% for FY2014, and it may be much less than that with the current world economic situation. You omitted that CRM's costs are virtually all growing at 40%+ versus 25% forecast revenue growth. R&D costs are growing faster. I can't remember the exact number, but sales and marketing costs are already a huge proportion of revenues. You also neglected to mention the huge players like IBM, ORCL, MSFT, and SAP that are growing their cloud segments faster than CRM (catching up). I am sure I can go on; but really CRM is just a scam being perpetrated on the market by the analysts, HFT trading firms, and momentum players at this point. Its valuation is a joke.
    Mar 25 08:06 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beaten Down Chesapeake Energy Is A Great Value Buy With A Good Dividend [View article]
    James Shaw: This article was meant as a long term view on the stock. To evaluate it, you have to look say two years out, especially since you may see a recession in the US next year. Still there are many positives to come for CHK in the next 1-2 years.

    FYI: SA published the results of an independent academic study that showed SA authors far outperformed the market on average.
    Nov 27 12:52 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Classic Comeback Story: The Bullish Case For General Motors [View article]
    You have completely failed to mention its horrific pension funding obligations. These amount to more than $30B currently, and they are growing. You have failed to mention the large losses in the EU. GM recently decided to close one of its German plants. GM has been talking about possibly re-entering bankruptcy in order to renegotiate with unions and to get rid of some of its bloated management structure.

    Some improvements were made in the last bankruptcy. However, GM is far from a great company at this point.
    Jul 7 04:31 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent News Bodes Well For Great Dividend Payer American Capital Agency Corp. [View article]
    I don't think you have to worry about good news from Europe. Their problems have not even begun to be addressed. Hence they must go on. In fact they may get significantly worse. There may be some sporadic good news, but ti will not last. What may be more of a worry is that the Fed will do more QE because of a US slowdown brought on by the EU problems. This might be good short term, but it would lead to tighter margins with less chance of profit and more risk.
    Jun 26 11:58 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy: Managing Its Way Into Analysts' Good Graces [View article]
    bigazul: You clearly have not made an effort to understand what CHK is doing. Eventually you will be sorry you missed this. Long term it looks better than any other energy stock. You just can't beat its lease holdings, and it is clearly finding ways to pay for the development of those fields.
    Dec 30 01:54 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look at the Biggest Leaseholders in the Bakken [View article]
    It's perhaps appropriate you should mention ROSE. They too have made huge claims of how much actual oil they have on their leases. yet you are bad mouthing them. You should see my point. Also the ROSE leases are generally considered to be part of the Bakken. i am not sure why you think otherwise. I note there is a difference between the Bakken and the Williston, which is just a part of the Bakken. The ROSE lease holdings are in the Alberta Basin Bakken, which is still the Bakken. Please get your facts straight before you accuse others of misstating them.
    May 5 12:17 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the deficit scare just another in a line of horror plots out of Washington? All of the terrifying scenarios - bond buyer's strike, hyperinflation, plunging dollar - collapse if given serious thought. It may be a better idea to look at the motives of those pushing the horror story.  [View news story]
    Anyone who has been paying attention to what has been happening in Europe should know this is not just a horror scare. Traders are picking on one country after another. If we get some EU country defaults, that could push those same traders into picking the US to focus on. US banks have significant interests in the EU. The same unbridled rise in bond yield rates could easily happen to the US. This is a "too real" worry, not just a scare story.
    Dec 7 05:50 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Standing on the Precipice [View article]
    Soos Global Capital: Fast Money's Karen Finerman recommended yesterday to buy SPY puts to cover potential losses to a comfortable degree. Then you can still participate to the high side if you want, but you will have less risk.

    To be clear, I think the market should turn down soon. Momentum is based at least partially on QE2. It is not even clear that there will be a QE2. Hoenig, Lacker, Fisher are fairly set against it. Others are on the fence. Bullard has said he wants more data. Yellen has avoided expressing an opinion. The inflation data itself may not support trying to get more inflation. If PPI and CPI already show significant inflation, then the Fed can't justify QE2 by saying it is attempting inflation. If commodities go up much more, the Fed will not want to spur further price increases. Higher priced oil, with the huge US trade deficit in oil, is especially harmful to the US trade deficit in many ways.
    Oct 14 07:03 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy: Making All The Right Moves [View article]
    tell it your way:
    The government is not trying to put a halt to hydraulic fracturing. They have some desire to limit the pollution of ground water. Many of the companies involved have said they do not mind revealing the contents of their fracture materials. Others are resistant. The important point is that the fracturing can clearly be accomplished at least by some without significant environmental pollution. The argument now is that the companies want to stay with state regulations instead of having a federal law fits all. In either case they will be able to do the job. Some may have to change to different facture materials.
    Aug 5 02:24 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NY Times' 2,500 word Volcker profile ends with this: "We have to have a regulatory system that reflects today's problems and tomorrow's potential problems. This bill attempts to do that. Does it do it perfectly? Obviously it does not go as far as I felt it should go."  [View news story]
    The FinReg bill will turn out to be one of the biggest unmitigated disasters in US history if it is passed. It does very little to address the problems which caused real risk to the financial system. Instead it attempts to sterilize the banking system based on the outdated belief that world banking still revolves around only the US and Europe. Thsi will only serve to hurt US banking competitiveness worldwide. This idea was outdated 30 years ago when Volcker retired from the Fed. Now its a dinosaur. Thinking like this will only serve to further retard US growth. It will drive US jobs offshore. However, it will fail to make the banking system safer. Instead it will shift some of the risk aspects to entities which are less well regulated than US banks. It may end by making the US economy more at risk than it has been.

    Many tried hard to have Volcker removed 30 years ago. Obama has to be insane to be espousing Volcker's beliefs now. Greespan's comments about the bill: "It is a reaction bill, much of which will have to be repealed." "The bill was written by a bunch of Senate staffers who don't understand the economics of the situation. (implying that most of the Senators only knowledge was from being briefed by these same ignorant staffers).""30 years ago I only worried about US economics in determining policy. You cannot do that today. It is a truly global world (a definite shot at Volcker)." The above quotes are paraphrases of Greenspan. I believe they are accurate. Except for the Senate staffer quote, they are all things I was saying long before I heard Greenspan say them. Greenspan has much more experience with Senate staffers than I. He should have a good idea of the quality of their economic understanding.

    Remember too that both Bernanke and Geithner were against Volcker at the outset. Geithner has been ordered to preach the administration's line. Bernanke has shut up (on orders from the boss too no doubt). Obama, a junior Senator from Illinois, has failed to listen to his most knowledgeable and trusted advisors. Instead he has produced an anachronism -- Volcker -- to espouse his viewpoint. He has bullied Congress in the same way BP bullied its local managers to get a project done quickly. The result will be the same. I am maintaining the slim hope that some in the Senate will show the sanity to vote down this bill. It will certainly create a bigger credit crisis at a time when credit is already restricting job growth severely. The economy seems to be slowing. If the economy is only slowing, this bill will push the economy back into recession. If the economy is already headed for a double dip, this bill would likely push the economy into depression. Senators, please vote this bill down! Consider also Carly Fiorina's plaint that the bill will create a huge bureaucracy that will have to be paid for in taxes. This will make US banking less efficient, more expensive, and more cumbersome -- less competitive. Vote this bill down!
    Jul 11 10:15 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If all goes well, Greece expects its economy to start growing again next year, saying the key to exiting the crisis is "through [more] exports, trade and investment."  [View news story]
    Not many will want to invest in the Greece with its current 48.58% cumulative probability of default. The lower Euro may help Greece export, but it is not a huge manufacturer like Germany anyway. Tourism is one of its big industries. That is being hurt by the ash cloud, the strike which stop transportation (make it unreliable), the violence of the strikes, and the likely double dip in the overall EU economy next year. The recent austerity measures mean the average citizen will have much less money to spend in 2011. This likely means all businesses will be hurt. Improvement in the short term? It doesn't seem likely!
    Jun 19 06:18 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Connection Between Low Volume and High Frequency Trading [View article]
    Jeff: You say " These firms are not moving prices, but rather reducing volatility." This can be true in some cases. However, it is largely false. Many (if not most) of the algorithms clearly result in the rising of the price of stocks. An example of this is the "Stealth" algorithm. It detects big block sales when they first start. Then it buys ahead of the trade. It sells back at a slightly higher price as the block is bought. If you think this does not result in an overall price increase, you are daft! Metaphorically this algorithm detects the tip of the icebeg (the stock block being bought). Then it foreruns the trade. It profits for most of the big part of the iceberg. The buyer is certainly buying for more than the buyer would have been without this algorithm trading in action. The program did not provide liquidity in this case, it just profited.

    Admittedly there are many cases in which program trades do provide liquidity. However, there are many others in which the liquidity provider is simply skimming money off the top. There are algorithms which monitor flash postings of prospective buys and sell orders. Some big brokerages get these messages 30 micro seconds sooner that others. Some brokerages get messages sooner because they are closer to the source (Wall Street) of the messages (i.e. less internet delay). The high powered computers are then able to calculate how best to procede based on complex algorithms. Many aspects of HFT give a grossly unfair advantage to the big brokerage HFT trading programs versus the retail trader (or even say a West Coast trader). Your article makes it sound like it is all vanilla pablum that has no effect on the markets. This simply is not true. The HFT trading can alone drive the market upward. On the light days that we have been having lately, the program trading likely accounted for more than 80%. I have heard many CNBC people describe it as a slow melt upward. It is really program trading just buying and selling for very slightly higher prices as the day goes on.

    Only the major program trading establishments know when they will reverse course. They may not be in colusion, but one has to believe those people talk to each other, if only over beers after work. Everything is simply not quite as kosher as you make it out to be.
    Apr 15 04:46 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment