David White

Caxton Associates 13F Filing for Q408

I should also have mentioned that a number of European, especially Eastern European, economies are in trouble. S&P downgraded Ireland and Hungary recently. Eventually the ECB has to recognize that they have to implement more stimulus actions. They may soon cave into Geithner's demand for a quantitative easying policy by the ECB. If this happens the Euro will fall dramatically against the dollar. This will then cause a lot of the commodities to fall dramatically in dollar terms. Lumber is one of those commodities. If it falls dramatically, WY will too.

Even if the ECB doesn't adopt a quantitative easying policy, the worsening state of many European economies should push the dollar upward in the near term. This should push commodities prices downward.

Caxton Associates 13F Filing for Q408

Recently WY hit a near term high of $29.95. Since then it has headed lower. During the up movement the good economic news relative to WY abounded. The lumber futures rose dramatically. The inflationary policy of the Fed, etc. pushed futures even farther upward. However, the housing news today -- a 19% drop in prices year over year -- likely means lumber futures are headed downward again. It likely means homebuilding up moves seen recently are an anomaly (possibly due to unseasonably warm Feb. weather). There are likely many more foreclosures to come. Plus the commercial real estate will add to the already dour real estate news this year. The whole thing may turn out to be worse than last year. The first job losss estimates come out tomorrow. That should only further hurt the situation. WY seems likely to be headed back to $20 again (or possibly lower). It may be that we will eventually see a summer spike upward, when oil and other commodities move upward for the summer, but that is a ways away yet.