David White

Retail on a Tear - Fast Money Recap (8/11/08)

Today K+S AG a European specialty fertilizer supplier reported fantastic earnings. They more than quadrupled the year ago quarter. This may be the impetus to turn around the POT, MOS, and AGU trades. They moved to the upside yesterday when the dollar weakened. However, they are continuing to move up today even with a relatively strong dollar. Grain futures are up today. Oil futures are up slightly. Things are boding very well for POT et al.

20 Guidelines for the Individual Investor

Re POT: Fast Money held a CEO conference update on the AG sector stocks. The CEO's they interviewed all stated that the fertilizer growth scenario will continue for the near term foreseeable future (the next year at least). They saw no definite end to this growth cycle for AG companies. A lot of people will have seen this video by now. POT should move upward today (and possibly for several days) barring a market meltdown.

Commodities Are Taken to the Woodshed - What's the Game Plan?

I interpret this dollar rally to mean that the global markets have more faith that the U.S. Fed is taking the more appropriate action to engender stronger U.S. economic growth.

Commodities Are Taken to the Woodshed - What's the Game Plan?

Also the Dollar has been going up today on news that might normally make it go the other way. The ECB hiked its interest rate to 4.25% (+.25 points). The ISM report was negative. I think this positive action by the dollar is a very positive sign for the market. It shoudl also help oil prices, if this is a "real" dollar uptrend start.

Commodities Are Taken to the Woodshed - What's the Game Plan?

The other Ag stocks seem to be in a simialr position. So far the S&P500 is holding. The VIX looks like it is turning downward. If the S&P500 can continue to hold (rise) the Ag stocks will likely follow it upward.

Commodities Are Taken to the Woodshed - What's the Game Plan?

The ISM numbers were worse than predicted. However, I think everyone was expecting this to be true after the ADP numbers came out yesterday. This shoudl really be no news today. We just have to see if the market holds at support. I think the down move is already baked in to a large extent for this news.

Commodities Are Taken to the Woodshed - What's the Game Plan?

Let's jsut hope the 1250 level support on the S&P500 holds. It is close to that now. With the light volume today, the market might go down??

Commodities Are Taken to the Woodshed - What's the Game Plan?

POT is at a very strong technical support point (or at least it hit it overnight) -- 208-209. If the market tanks further (by a good margin) it can go further down. However, from a purely technical standpoint, it should rise from here as the good fundamentals behind it are still in place. The worldwide demand for food is increasing, especially with the increased affluence of China and India. The last 2 times it hit its 50 day moving average, it bounced upward strongly within a two week period. Of course, that it no guarantee it will do so this time. The market may continue downward. However, I am not sure the fundamentals are there for it to do so. Oil now seems to be the biggest problem. We need to start conserving more as a nation to keep this factor from running us into a deep recession. We also need to start producing more oil.