David White

Solar Cycles and Stocks: The Sun Also Rises

There will be a place for the more expensive polysilicone solar when reduced prices hit because it is also more efficient. However, the polysilicone solar manufacturers who are already starting to diversify into UMG solar will be ahead of the game when the price decline (probable demand increase) comes. The two polysilicone PV companies I know of who are doing this currently are CSIQ and LDK. LDK is particularly well positioned. They have significant fixed price long term contracts. The are expanding to UMG solar.They are building two polysilicone manufacturing plants, which will allow them to significantly cut costs for polysilicone (even if the prices decrease as suggested above). Other companies are likely to follow suit. Also there are other players in the CIGS area besides Nanosolar. CIGS will likely become a big factor by 2010-2011. The stocks like FSLR with high multiples will be hurt by this. The stocks with low margins are also significantly at risk. It will be interesting to see how this whole situation plays out. Solar does seem about to become a major player in the energy market.

An In-Depth Look at Solar Stocks

The SEC is considering expanding the emergency short selling rules to include all or virtually all stocks. If this happened, a number of solar stocks would likely benefit. LDK, TSL, and SOLF are a few that come quickly to mind.

German Subsidy Fears Trigger Solar Downgrades

Oil is down more than $4 per barrel today. This likely accounts for the big losses in most energy stocks. It seems likely there will be a slight bounce tomorrow in both oil and in energy stocks. FSLR is butting up against the bottom of its bottom Bollinger band. this makes the likelihood of a rally off of this point an even stronger possibility. Recent rallies of FSLR off of bollinger band bottoms have been 50 points or more within the space of about a month. Will this happen again?????

German Subsidy Fears Trigger Solar Downgrades

When you look at the amount of the U.S. trade deficit due to oil importation (and this seems to be growing quickly to the glee of the arab nations), you quickly see what a slippery slope not encouraging alternate energy is for a net importer of oil and gas. Germany likley will decide it needs to keep its subsidy policy in place (or perhaps even better it). The U.S. certainly needs to encourage solar much more than it has. We all know why the dollar goes down in relation to the Euro when the price of oil goes up. I find it hard to believe the Germans are foolish enough to back away from a policy that is clearly working in their favor.

German Subsidy Fears Trigger Solar Downgrades

STP issued $500,000,000 in convertible notes. That's a good reason for it to go down. As for this Germany solar policy speculation. It is just that so far. Germany has many things to consider. If Germany does not encourage the adoption of solar, they will have to pay for oil or uranium or natural gas in the future. Any of those alternatives will likely cost their tax payers more than the solar subsidy. Those alternatives are all likely to increase in price over time. Germany would likely be better off in the long run not to decrease the solar subisdy. Of course, you haven't even mentioned the Kyoto issues at this point, which are still yet another good reason for Germany to keep their solar subsidy.

Beware of the Solar Stock Fad

You are right to warn people about possible or probable problems ahead. Some solar stocks are overpriced. There may be overproduction soon. Prices will fall due to this competition and to increases in production efficiencies. However, solar power is here to stay. Energy is getting continually more expensive. As solar gets less expensive, solar energy panels will really become a must have item.

Why Canadian Solar is the Best Solar Stock

The avg. earnings estimate for SOLF is $1.30 (TDAmeritrade) for 2008. This would give it a 2008 earnings P/E of 12.5. A lot different than your figure. Also LDK has a PEG of 0.24 (Yahoo Finance). It is hard to beat that. I think some of your data are faulty. I do tend to agree that CSIQ is a good stock though.