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David White
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David White is a software/firmware/marketing professional and a long time investor. He has worked in the networking field, the semiconductor equipment field, the mainframe computer field, and the pharmaceutical/scientific instrumentation field. He has bachelor's degrees in bioresource sciences... More
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  • The Short Term Euro Direction Seems To Have Changed To Upward
    The EU has very slowly and painfully been coming to a resolution about the Greece debt problems. This weekend they agreed on a more concrete bailout package. They will float loans to Greece for up to 30M Euros at 5%. The IMF will provide another 15M Euros of loans at 5%. The Greek CDS spread rates are already down considerably in reaction to this news. This bodes well for the near term performance of the Euro. The FXE chart below indicates that a short term upward trending bottom may have been reached.



    This could be the start of a bigger turn, although some economic indicators argue against that. Still it seems likely to be at least a short term move up of the FXE to the $137.50 level. The FXE is just passing through its 20-day moving average, and its 50-day moving average seems likely to be penetrated to the upside soon. We will all have to wait for further developments to try to predict much more. Pundits as famous as Jim Rogers and George Soros are saying the FXB should go down longer term (it has been rising recently). This likely means the Euro will go down in sympathy. I wouldn't care to argue with them without a lot more evidence to go on.

    Good luck trading.


    Disclosure: no postions at this time
    Tags: FXE
    Apr 12 6:26 AM | Link | 4 Comments
  • GLD Just Broke Above A Significant Resistance Level
    We have had a lot of good economic news lately. The auto sales in march were better than expected. The jobs numbers were lower than expected, but they did not include as many Census jobs as had been predicted. The "core jobs number" was actually higher than expected. The ISM numbers were great. Bond yields and commodity prices have been going up, but not too much (i.e. some inflation). Plus the EU seems to have come to a more "real" bailout solution for Greece this weekend. This is great economic news for Europe. This would all seem to mean that gold is going higher in the near term. The GLD ETF chart would seem to give credence to this thesis. See below:



    It indicates that GLD has just broken through a significant resistance point. With the good economic news on many fronts (for example, South Korea just upped its GDP estimate for 2010 to 5.2%), there doesn't seem to be a good reason that GLD should not rise higher. The chart would seem to indicate it will. The chart indicates that the next stage of upside should be clear sailing to the $119 to $120 range. You can place a stop at approximately $112 to play this upside move. GLD may go higher than $119 to $120, but we will have to wait to evaluate the GLD situation and the economic news at that time. For now the near term move looks like a good play. If the economic news turns dramatically sour with earnings, that would change this outlook.

    Disclosure: no postion at this time.
    Tags: GLD
    Apr 12 6:02 AM | Link | 3 Comments
  • PMI Data for Trading From the March 2010 ISM Report
    17 manufacturing industries reported growth in March. Plastics and Rubber Products was the only industry reporting contraction in March.
    Most commodities were reported up in price. Notably Steel and Aluminum have been up for 9 consecutive months. Natural Gas is the only commodity that was reported down in price.
    No commodities were reported in short supply.
    ISM's New Orders Index registered 61.5 percent in March, 2 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted 59.5 percent registered in February. This is the ninth consecutive month of growth in the New Orders Index.
    ISM's Production Index registered 61.1 percent in March, which is an increase of 2.7 percentage points from the February reading of 58.4 percent (seasonally adjusted).
    ISM's Employment Index registered 55.1 percent in March, which is 1 percentage point lower than the seasonally adjusted 56.1 percent reported in February. This is the fourth consecutive month of growth in manufacturing employment.
    The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in March as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 64.9 percent, which is 3.8 percentage points higher than the 61.1 percent registered in February (seasonally adjusted). This is the 10th consecutive month the Supplier Deliveries Index has been above 50 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries (good because more demand).
     
    Manufacturers' inventories expanded in March following 46 months of contraction, as the Inventories Index registered 55.3 percent. The index is 8 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted February reading of 47.3 percent.
    The ISM Customers' Inventories Index registered 39 percent in March, 2 percentage points higher than in February when the index registered 37 percent, and the 12th consecutive month the Customers' Inventories Index has been below 50 percent. The index indicates that respondents believe their customers' inventories are too low at this time.
     
    The ISM Prices Index registered 75 percent in March, 8 percentage points higher than the 67 percent reported in February. This is the ninth consecutive month in which the Prices Index has registered above 50 percent. This indicates inflationary pressures.
     
    ISM's Backlog of Orders Index registered 58 percent in March, 3 percentage points lower than the 61 percent reported in February.
     
    ISM's New Export Orders Index registered 61.5 percent in March, 5 percentage points higher than the 56.5 percent reported in February.
     
    Imports of materials by manufacturers expanded in March as the Imports Index registered 57 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the 56 percent reported in February.
     
     
     


    Disclosure: no positions at this time
    Tags: SLX, JJU
    Apr 02 1:42 AM | Link | Comment!
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  • Does Varoufakis intend to worry about things after they are huge problems? I have heard no plans. If Greeks follow HOT AIR, deserve failure.
    1 day ago
  • Even if Greece prepares well, there will still be terrible damage to tourism (Greece's #1 industry), real estate, banking, etc.
    1 day ago
  • One could argue that Greece should exit the Euro. However, this is not the right moment. Greece wants to prepare well before doing so.
    1 day ago
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