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Now people are forecasting a rise in the
USD due to the 10.2% unemployment data. Reserve currency & less money spent on commodities.
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Daily
SPY chart (5-min) is forming a flag. This seems very close to breaking one way or the other. May see a big move at the end of the day.
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USD Index has been rising slightly. Now at 75.785. This is likely helping equities and commodities go down.
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PP for
HOG today is $25.52. On terrible fundamental news,
HOG should end the day below that. We'll see what actually happens.
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Considering
HOG book value is based on relaxed mark to market rules, actuality is probably worse than current book.
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HOG debt/capital (MRQ) is 69.3%. Substantial loan losses would push this figure significantly higher. Book value about $2.2B. Bankruptcy???
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HOG with HDFS (loan branch) will have higher charge off rates due to higher unemployment.
HOG sitting on $5.2B in loans.
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The unemployment news should be particularly bad for credit card loan companies. Charge off rate follows unemployment up.
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VIX chart trend looks like it should go to at least 23. If this holds true, we may have some more short term upside. Feels like down though.
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UK news sounded as bad or worse than US.
EU news wasn't good either. No reason for
USD to plummet.
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The
USD has risen off its intraday low of about 75.6 to close to 75.755 currently. This is helping a decline.
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Market went up on continuation of trend, but the 10.2% unemployment figure is still negative news. Equities likely to head downward.
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FNM now asking government for $15B more by the end of the year.
FNM has already gotten $45B. It doesn't sound like the recession is over.
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Obama supposed ot sign extension of unemployment benefits today. This is further stimulus money. Consumers can spend more if they have it.
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As unemployment continues to rise, banks will have mounting problems. Can the government turn the economy enough to avert a double dip???
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US banks are having problems with commercial mortgages, with residential mortgages, with high credit card credit caharge off rates, etc.
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RBS reported a $3B loss for the quarter. Another indication that the recession is still with us. Many banking signs are worsening.
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UUP still way up due to trading halt and new 100M shares registration request. This is all premium to fair value. Possible short near term.
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Altucher's comment about insider trading being a victimless crime is tantamount to giving banks permission to skim 10% from savings acct.'s.
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UUP is continuing to rise. Likely some are playing the spurt.
USD is not matching it though.
UUP likely to fall soon.