Seeking Alpha
  • David White
    Those who have listened to me rant about AMZN being overvalued recently have done well the last two days.
    10/10/12
    Reply (88)
    • westcoastinvests: You must be kidding you have been ranting against AMZN since at least Feb when it traded at 180.
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: 8 months later it has 2 down days and you pat yourself on the back, ridiculous
      10/10/12
    • David White: I don't really remember that, although it was over priced then too. However, I wrote a recent article, and then I have been talking about it
      10/10/12
    • realornot: You never rant! Have you????
      10/10/12
    • Justin M. Hall: Hey westcoastinvests, cut the crap.
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: David you truly are crazy, just for your memory lets pull some old stock talks.
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: excuse me Justin crap?? how is trying to hold someone to even a shred of accountability crap?
      10/10/12
    • David White: In any case, I got into put options (spreads) on AMZN recently, and I made a good amount of money.
      10/10/12
    • David White: With the currently troubled market, there could be a good amount more of downside. With the last two day down move it could rebound a bit
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: I sometimes think the BIG BOYS just tout AMZN because they can get people to put $ into a market leader, even if far over priced. Unethical!
      10/10/12
    • David White: depending on what the overall market does. PE is still 298. Much too high.
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: thats a David White Classic from Feb 29, AMZN closes 183.
      10/10/12
    • David White: The news about competition from WMT is helping AMZN move down too. In my article I suggested it might see increased competition from both
      10/10/12
    • David White: WMT and SHLD. WMT was in the news today for just that.
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: David you made some money on a trade great, but how can you possibly try to take credit for helping people with AMZN??
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: I actually think I like it better when you are rambling and not making sense then when u try and take credit for being so smart and helpful
      10/10/12
    • David White: Go over the stock talks at the end of last week and Monday. I only said if people listened to me. I didn't take credit for what they may
      10/10/12
    • David White: have done. Naturally you are a QE3 pumper. Doing well today are you?
      10/10/12
    • Justin M. Hall: :-)
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: you said if they listened to u essentially say the same thing for 100's of days that after several 100's of days you were right for 2 days
      10/10/12
    • Justin M. Hall: Somebody is stressed out and taking their frustration out on others.
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: a broken clock is right twice a day the difference between u and the clock is it doesn't try and take credit for those two moments each day
      10/10/12
    • Justin M. Hall: Just giving you a hard time Westcoast. Try to lighten up a bit.
      10/10/12
    • David White: westcoastinvests: I will try to look up what you are talking about. However, I am up significantly on the year so far in my account that I
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: David what about the people who listened to you in Feb, would you like to remind them how wrong you were?
      10/10/12
    • David White: track my recommendations in. I don't think I have much to be embarrassed about. Everyone gets the timing wrong sometimes. A normal
      10/10/12
    • Justin M. Hall: It's time to move on. February was a long, long time ago.
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: Justin I appreciate it and I will apologize to you, but David just takes it too far
      10/10/12
    • David White: person will exit any trade that starts going the wrong way too significantly. I freely admit that I am not always right. In fact one person
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: Yes people get timing wrong no problem. What is a problem is trying to ignore every time you are wrong and then take credit when right.
      10/10/12
    • David White: commented on one article that he would just bet everything on my next recommendation. I asked him not to because I am wrong sometimes.
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: David, I don't think I've ever seen you admit to being wrong, yet you love to claim to be right.
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: Ok Ill let you go with a final question, Do you think you've done a good job predicting the price movement of AMZN?
      10/10/12
    • David White: westcoastinvests: Get REAL!!! Does anyone brag about being wrong. I think my article will generally bear out that I have done a good job
      10/10/12
    • David White: this year. You on the other hand have only your foul mouth for proof of anything.
      10/10/12
    • David White: I meant to say articles.
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: Your answer about AMZN is telling as you have been wrong and oddly now don't even remember.
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: Even more telling. "Does anyone brag about being wrong?", No but smart honest people ADMIT IT, and they don't brag about being right.
      10/10/12
    • David White: westcoastinvests: I did find a short article on AMZN by me in Feb. At the time it was trading at a PE of 133 (too high). I predicted that
      10/10/12
    • David White: the PE would soon move to over 228. Therefore it was a sell. I still believe that was good advice. HFT/momentum traders can temporarily skew
      10/10/12
    • David White: the market upward. Normally it will come crashing down eventually in those cases such as NFLX, etc. AMZN is a better company than NFLX,
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: David you've written 3 articles on SA about AMZN, 2 out of the 3 articles claim AMZN to be overpriced and suggest shorting.
      10/10/12
    • David White: but it is still far too highly valued. I can be right, but the trade may not turn out well. I don't have a crystal ball. That does not
      10/10/12
    • David White: invalidate what I said. It only means a lot of people can chase hot stocks, when the BIG BOYZ are behind them. Those situations generally
      10/10/12
    • David White: correct dramatically in time.
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: The 2 negative articles u wrote about AMZN were in Jan and Feb of this year while AMZN traded in 180's after 2 bad days it closes 245 today
      10/10/12
    • Master Che: westcoast - don't short AMZN - buy it on this dip -http://bit.ly/Nz9iQD
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: Wait David, so you can be right even if the market tells you you are wrong?
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: You realize I don't even care that you were horribly wrong over the whole year about AMZN? It's the fact you really went looking for praise
      10/10/12
    • David White: I wrote one much more recently. Look again. Plus I was talking about it recently too. That would indicate that I thought the timing might
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: after being right for 2 days. Do you understand that?
      10/10/12
    • David White: be right. I found the Feb. one. You obviously missed the news today that WMT is asserting itself into a more direct competition with AMZN.
      10/10/12
    • David White: When AMZN, GOOG, etc. asserted themselves against NFLX, it didn't fall immediately. But look where it is now from last year's high of @ $300
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: David, the news today?? I am calling u out for trying to claim you have been right about something that you have been terribly wrong about
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: Even with the facts laid out in dated articles written by you, you are still stubbornly trying to cling to being right.
      10/10/12
    • David White: You can tell me a year from now how wrong I have been. We'll see. I was definitely right in the short term this time.
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: U've even gone so far as to say that you can still be right about an investment prediction even if said investment goes the other way
      10/10/12
    • David White: I fully admit that my more fundamental approach is wrong timing-wise sometimes. That does not mean it will be wrong long term.
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: You are back pedaling quickly so u were quite wrong earlier this year a couple times but u'd like us all to know last 2 days u were right?
      10/10/12
    • David White: WMT seems to slowly be moving into direct competition with AMZN. WMT trades at a PE of 15.90 vs AMZN's 298.40. How do you justify that if
      10/10/12
    • David White: WMT becomes a strong competitor to AMZN? As I have already said it already sells for less than AMZN in many cases. Don't you think
      10/10/12
    • David White: customers will care about that?
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: David,I don't justify that, I have no opinion on AMZN. Can you please answer my last question?
      10/10/12
    • David White: Don't you think WMT, SHLD, etc. may be able to take away some of AMZN's business with their increasingly prominent online business segments?
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: David I hope u understand my words here have nothing to do with your opinion about AMZN, I never criticize anyone for their investment ideas
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: U were quite wrong earlier this year about AMZN a couple of times but u'd like us all to know last 2 days u were correct?
      10/10/12
    • David White: I have tried to point out that I do not believe I was wrong then. I just acknowledge that the market has perversely pushed AMZN up anyway.
      10/10/12
    • David White: That happens. HFT/momentum traders like to push stocks up as long as they can, esp. when they are popular. These virtually all crash. With
      10/10/12
    • David White: the fiscal cliff upcoming, AMZN is due for a crash soon, even without the increasing competition. People will have to rein in their spending
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: So the market was wrong and you were right. Using this logic is it possible over the past 2 days that u were wrong and the market was wrong
      10/10/12
    • David White: This will lead to AMZN disappointing. When a high PE stock disappoints on EPS and especially on revenues, it often falls dramatically.
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: How much higher would the price of AMZN have to rise before you were wrong about predicting that it was a poor investment in Feb?
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: If you can be right even while the market moves in opposition of your prediction I am curious what metric you use to measure success?
      10/10/12
    • David White: I told you I primarily base my recommendations on fundamentals. The fundamentals say AMZN is a bad investment. The market can
      10/10/12
    • David White: temporarily prove me wrong via stock price. It has not proved me wrong via fundamentals. Therefore I still think AMZN is due to fall
      10/10/12
    • David White: substantially. You on the other hand are saying price is the only thing that is important. You seem to be a QE fan. This seems to be having
      10/10/12
    • David White: less impact as time goes on. Can AMZN still go higher. Yes it could. Should it in the next year? No, it shouldn't. By this time next year
      10/10/12
    • David White: I would expect AMZN's stock price to be considerably lower.
      10/10/12
    • David White: The Operation Twist effects and the expectations of QE3 (and then QE3) have fed this market. Many stocks are overvalued. The upside is
      10/10/12
    • David White: limited. GS's Chief Forecaster says you historically don't get multiple expansion in stagnant economies. The current pumpers are pumping
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: That is what you said about AMZN stock price 10 months ago and its approx 33% higher,what if it goes higher next year?
      10/10/12
    • David White: based mostly on that. Its unlikely to happen. Have you read about the IMF, etc. world GDP downgrades recently?
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: At what point could you admit that you were wrong about your AMZN prediction that price would decline?
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: David you keep bringing in reasons for your prediction, I am not worried at all about they why. I want to know when u can say you are wrong
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: Thank you for your time David, I will let you go
      10/10/12
    • Master Che: westcoast is 100% correct in this discussion -
      10/10/12
    • David White: I already said this time next year. You are not listening.
      10/10/12
    • westcoastinvests: David, I am sorry i missed your answer thanks for clarifying have a good day.
      10/10/12