Seeking Alpha
  • David White
    9 mo's ago I predicted that this earnings report would be the one in which CSCO started showing signs of weakness.Not a bad prediction
    5/9/12
    Reply (14)
    • DAG1996: is CSCO still worth holding long-term? i'm fine with it if good appreciation takes a few more quarters but don't want to hold a total dud
      5/9/12
    • David White: CSCO laid off about 10,000 people 9 months ago.This translated into an immediate improvement in profits. I estimated that it would take
      5/9/12
    • David White: about 9 months for the loss of productivity of those 10,000 people showed up in unmet development and marketing deadlines.
      5/9/12
    • David White: Some of that seems to be coming to fruition. Some of the current problem is also the slowing economy. You should note that there have
      5/9/12
    • David White: been continual government jobs losses over the last year or more. This means many government functions are shrinking. It means a tougher
      5/9/12
    • David White: sales environment for this non-negligible portion of CSCO's sales. CSCO also does a lot of business in Europe. This stands to be slow over
      5/9/12
    • David White: the next 9 months or more. The US and other sales may slow too. The USD may rise in value in tough times. All this means that CSCO may
      5/9/12
    • David White: have a very troubled outlook for that time. I wouldn't own it at this time. If you like it, you could think of buying it as the EU
      5/9/12
    • David White: emerges from the recession that has not been officially declared yet. Keep in mind that Lagarde has mentioned the possibility of a lost
      5/9/12
    • David White: decade for the EU. Such an eventuality would hurt CSCO's long term outlook. You want to factor this into your thinking also.
      5/9/12
    • DAG1996: Thank you for that very helpful info. I liked it because it did well for me out of the 2009 downturn, but I don't love it as I'm now
      5/9/12
    • DAG1996: realizing I should have sold out when it peaked a year later. I thought it turned again from the Oct '11 lows to head up again for a while
      5/9/12
    • DAG1996: but its becoming clear that is not that case and probably won't happen any time soon. I think I'll hope that a news bump comes
      5/9/12
    • DAG1996: some time soon and just sell out for good. Thanks again for taking the time to explain all of that. Its very much appreciated.
      5/9/12