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David Zanoni  

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  • Scanning The SA Family For Alpha: BuyandHold 2012 [View article]
    I think that it is best to analyze as many facts as possible. This includes: the long-term outlook for the company's products and trends that could be capitalized on, the strength of management and their track record, any recent management changes, the competitive landscape, fundamentals such as growth in revenue, ROE, EPS, EBITDA, cash flow, dividend history, valuation, etc. Then, after analyzing all of this, make a rational, logical decision - not based on emotion, but based on the facts before you.

    I do tend to be optimistic over the long-term, but I also try my best to make investment decisions without emotion. This will prevent mistakes in my opinion.
    Jul 11, 2015. 11:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing Can Thrive Without The Ex-Im Bank [View article]

    I understand what you are saying. However, I think if the Ex-Im were to go away other non-government owned entities would arise to fill any needed gaps. The Ex-Im is nothing magical - it is just another source of financing. Boeing already provides financing and they are currently filling the gap as the Ex-Im is not available for new loans at the moment. So, I acknowledge that Boeing would prefer not to extend its financing, but the company would likely do just fine if forced to.
    Jul 11, 2015. 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing Can Thrive Without The Ex-Im Bank [View article]

    Yes, to clarify, about 15% of expected 2015 sales is to be derived from Ex-Im loans - I am not sure why you are confused. That's funny you mentioned political risk because those in favor of Ex-Im always talk about how few defaults arise from its loans. It is said to be less than 2% over the Ex-Im's 80-year history. Of course, Boeing would rather have U.S. taxpayers bear the brunt of that risk if they can avoid it. Perhaps a new company could emerge as an insurer of these loans in the event that Ex-Im goes away. There's certainly money to be made if less than 2% of loans default.
    Refer to page 18.
    Jul 10, 2015. 01:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Is Trading Below Its Intrinsic Value [View article]
    Those who argue that IBM is slow on innovation can ponder this: IBM researchers have developed test chips with smaller circuitry than products currently on the market. If effectively applied, these chips can help companies reduce costs while increasing chip capabilities.
    Jul 10, 2015. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Is Trading Below Its Intrinsic Value [View article]
    IBM had $12.5 billion in free cash flow over the past 12 months. The dividend $5.20/share @ 984.73 m shares = $5.12 billion, leaving $7.3 billion for buybacks. Borrowing money is a normal part of doing business - this is how companies grow. With a profitable business and positive cash flow, adding debt is not an issue as the company can make its payments.

    The traffic lights were just an example of many 'things' that can be more effectively managed in the future. If you have a large city with complex traffic issues, a smart system could reduce traffic bottlenecks, catch drivers who violate laws, etc. I don't know if IBM will be directly involved with such a system, but there will be tons of complex data from various systems for the internet of things and cloud where companies/governments will look to IBM to effective manage.
    Jul 10, 2015. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Actinium Pharmaceuticals: Perfect Storm For A Falling Share Price [View article]
    The stock is down 18% since my article was written - so far, so good.
    Jul 9, 2015. 08:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Clobbers Samsung In China [View article]

    That's a great question: How would someone that is long AAPL respond to the statement that Apple has become an imitator, instead of an innovator?

    Apple has always been an innovator by making the best or most popular products. The Mac was a more reliable version of a PC; the iPod was a more advanced version of an MP3 player; the iPhone, a more advance cell phone. Apple didn't invent the computer, the MP3 player, the cell phone, or the watch. What they do is make existing products more advanced, user-friendly, and popular. Ultimately, what matters is that the company continues to increase sales, earnings, and cash flow year-over-year. That is what investors should be concerned about.

    The iPhone hit the markets in 2007 - 8 years ago. The fact that the company achieved increased sales year-over-year on new versions demonstrates that the company is effectively innovating - even if the innovations are incremental changes to existing products. Apple doesn't have to be the first to invent something - they just have to continue to offer products that will increase sales over the long-term and do it profitably. Apple is doing just that.
    Jul 8, 2015. 03:48 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Bet On Seeking Alpha's Future [View article]

    Your efforts over the years are highly appreciated for building SA into what it is today. You are a true visionary who has built an incredible interactive, effective platform for investors. Thank you for all of your efforts.


    Congratulations, on your new position as CEO. I am confident that you will do an excellent job for SA in your new role as you have done an excellent job over years in your current role.
    Jul 2, 2015. 08:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Is Trading Below Its Intrinsic Value [View article]

    Yes, IBM is currently boosting EPS by buying back stock, but the fact that the company produces billions of free cash flow shows that they do have quality earnings.

    The catalyst that will drive the company to grow revenue again is the Internet of Things, which is just beginning. Vehicles, health monitoring systems, home/industrial appliances, traffic lights, HVAC systems, fitness bands, lighting systems, you name it. More and more things have sensors embedded in them to provide data to users/companies. IBM has solutions for companies to analyze and make sense of this increasing amount of data.

    The discounted cash flow model is a better valuation method for determining a company's intrinsic value. Since IBM trades below its intrinsic value, it is attractively valued.
    Jul 2, 2015. 07:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Is Trading Below Its Intrinsic Value [View article]
    David B,

    You are wise to do an in depth study of the company. Thank you for adding your insight. Patience and a long-term viewpoint is likely to be rewarded.
    Jul 2, 2015. 07:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Is Trading Below Its Intrinsic Value [View article]
    Tai Yu,

    That mentality is what causes investors to fail to see an undervalued company with future potential. Most investors don't have enough patience to wait out a blip in performance. In this regard, investors fail to see the future potential. You have to look at the growth of data and the need to process it to understand IBM's future potential. Past recent performance is not an indicator of future performance. Current investors will be paid a dividend to wait.
    Jul 1, 2015. 01:34 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Is Trading Below Its Intrinsic Value [View article]

    You are not looking at the future potential. IBM stands to benefit from the cloud and the need for companies to process data for the Internet of Things.
    Jul 1, 2015. 11:54 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Is Trading Below Its Intrinsic Value [View article]

    I think Warren Buffett understands IBM more than many think. He is a patient investor and doesn't mind if a stock he buys drops in price within a few years after he buys it. When the price drops, he adds to his position, thus lowering his cost basis. The problem is that few have patience anymore, causing them to give up and sell prematurely. IBM is a cash flow king, paying dividends and buying back stock. When revenue growth returns, the stock will rise significantly. This will be evident 5 to 10 years from now.
    Jul 1, 2015. 09:40 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The #1 Stock In The World [View article]
    How about shorting XIV now with the Greek debt fears on the table? Or buy VIX.
    Jun 29, 2015. 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Partying Like It Is 2007 [View article]

    Yes you are correct. Back in 2007, the real estate market was beginning to decline and interest rates hit a peak. Our current situation is not like 2007. However, the market is due for a correction and the Greek situation looks like a good trigger.
    Jun 29, 2015. 08:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment