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David Zanoni  

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  • Thoughts On Momentum Stocks: Netflix And Amazon [View article]

    All righty then.
    Aug 18, 2015. 07:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On Momentum Stocks: Netflix And Amazon [View article]

    Yes, that is true of all stocks. However, the fall for Netflix and Amazon would be much deeper than the average stock due to the height of their valuations. That is the main point that I'm conveying.

    An investor can take profits, only take some profits, or close your eyes/hold your nose and hold onto them.
    Aug 18, 2015. 07:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Tree Will Thrive As It Improves Family Dollar Stores [View article]
    d lorah,

    Interesting perspective, but I don't know if that will translate into better stock performance for DG.
    Aug 17, 2015. 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Shot Not Heard Around The World [View article]

    Frankly, I don't see hyperinflation happening. Lower oil/gas prices are keeping a lid on transportation costs for many businesses and lowering input costs for others. The lower gas prices also provide consumers with more spending money, which should help the economy without causing inflation.

    Although the U.S. economy is growing slowly - it is growing. This is evident in Q2 GDP growth of 2.3%.

    Sure, we will have another recession eventually, but it will probably take some time to get there. One small increase in interest rates is not likely to trigger a recession - that happens after a series of increases. So, a recession is most likely a number of years down the road.
    Aug 17, 2015. 11:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Get Mad [View article]

    You said that deflation exists. Granted, we have that with oil and gas prices, but the consumer price index increased 0.3% in June - a small increase, but not deflation. July's figure is released on Wed., so it should be interesting to see how that turns out.

    Frankly, I think that the lower oil & gas prices are positive for the middle class. It gives us more purchasing power. You are also assuming that most middle class people are going to sell during or at the bottom of the next crash, but are they really going to cash out of their retirement accounts where most of their wealth is being accumulated? Probably not.
    Aug 17, 2015. 10:12 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Is Still Ridiculously Wrong [View article]

    Thank you for the thought-provoking article. However, I disagree with the statement that you made that says that the bull market only affects the wealthy. It actually affects everyone who is invested in a 401K and similar retirement plans. There are millions of middle and working class people that are benefiting from the bull market over the long term. Some of them will work their way up and be wealthy over time.
    Aug 16, 2015. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Lies Ahead For Dividend Stocks? [View article]
    Although dividend stocks are valued higher now than recent years, the quality names will still perform well over the long-term. If you buy in now with the intention of holding for 5 or 10 years or more, investors will be fine.
    Aug 15, 2015. 08:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2015 Exposes Shaky MLP Fundamentals [View article]
    I would think that many distributions among MLPs will be lowered if oil prices stay depressed. Free cash flow has turned negative on most of these names in this environment, so the distributions are at risk.
    Aug 14, 2015. 09:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Should Not Think That Buying Netflix Is An 'Investment' [View article]

    Yes, I'm sure that DDD investors were saying the same thing when the stock was in the $90s - it is now trading at $13. Netflix stock is at risk of negative news. That could be a number of things: worse than expected earnings report, worse than expected subscriber growth, etc.

    Michael H. - the rules for valuation haven't changed because of stocks like NFLX and AMZN. Hold onto it if you like, but keep in mind that the stock is at risk of a large drop. NFLX's ROE is declining and free cash flow is negative - not a stock with a margin of safety.
    Aug 14, 2015. 09:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Tree Will Thrive As It Improves Family Dollar Stores [View article]

    Yes, the increase in debt is one of the risks. Ultimately, I think that Dollar Tree will use its expertise with an effective product mix to improve Family Dollar. I am not sure if Dollar Tree is planning to sell Family Dollar in the future, but that's a possibility.
    Aug 14, 2015. 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Tree Will Thrive As It Improves Family Dollar Stores [View article]

    Yes, the company is likely to find more good buys from China as the yuan decreases against the dollar, so that percentage may increase. Conditions do look positive for DLTR.
    Aug 14, 2015. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Tree Will Thrive As It Improves Family Dollar Stores [View article]

    Dollar Tree gets 39% to 41% of their merch. from imports, with most of that coming from China. So, the company will benefit from the China currency devaluation as imports from there will be cheaper.
    Aug 14, 2015. 02:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nautilus Presents A Great Buying Opportunity [View article]

    Thank you for commenting. The gross margin is 52% - so the company must be happy keeping the focus on the current high-end products.

    Yes, expansion into new regions is another solid growth opportunity.
    Aug 12, 2015. 08:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Apple Burst The Netflix Bubble? [View article]

    NFLX may not lose many subscribers during a recession, but the stock would get crushed along with the rest of the market with its valuation so high.
    Aug 12, 2015. 07:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Apple Burst The Netflix Bubble? [View article]

    I agree with you that NFLX is absurdly valued. However, you also stated that AAPL is somewhat pricey. What metric are you using to determine that Apple is pricey? Certainly not the trailing PE of 13, forward PE of 11.8, or the PEG of 0.89 - they show an undervaluation as compared to the market. AAPL is undervalued even on a DCF basis. I did an updated DCF analysis on Apple in my subscription service.
    Aug 12, 2015. 07:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment