Social Media And Mining - Pairs Trading And Inefficient Markets [View article]
Trade is now about 50% in our favor after just 4 months and that's before assuming any leverage from trading on margin. Time to close the position and harvest profits before this "pair" gets overripe: http://bit.ly/VjGRXO
Social Media And Mining - Pairs Trading And Inefficient Markets [View article]
Implied volatility may be higher, but it's essentially meaningless because price has simply been going down down down. There is no long history of up and down movement. The options trade here is predicated on Facebook reversing and moving back up back towards IPO level.
Visualizing Tasman Metals: Heavy Rare Earths Contender [View article]
We are well aware that the predominantly "light" Mt Weld is in fact "heavier" than the heavies. It is a very rich deposit. There is no contradiction here. The point of the TREO Value Comparison chart was to isolate the predominantly heavy deposits and we did this using filters in these charts. Unfortunately Seeking Alpha failed to publish the link back to all the original interactive graphics which easily allow users to set the filters according to their liking. We invite you to take a closer look: http://bit.ly/M7TzGR
Visualizing Tasman Metals: Heavy Rare Earths Contender [View article]
Thank you everyone for the comments and feedback. As Ed stated, Tasman may be one of our favorites in the heavy rare earths space but it isn't the only rare earths company we own. Seeking Alpha removed a line at the end of our analysis saying something to this effect.
For those interested in Tasman, I've just published a pretty significant analysis of the PEA released in late March: http://bit.ly/J7Ciew
It doesn't tend to change much on a day-to-day basis since rebalancing happens quarterly and otherwise it's just a matter of balancing supply and demand for the ETF. The exception is when a company is dropped from the index mid-quarter, but this is rare.
Reacting To A Rebalancing Of Junior Gold Miners ETF [View article]
A lot of strange things going on indeed. Just take a look at the share price / volume action in Canaco towards the end of the day. Others as well. Very murky.
Reacting To A Rebalancing Of Junior Gold Miners ETF [View article]
The full, member-only version of this analysis included several specific ideas, one of which involved KGN, see: www.metalaugmentor.com...
I can't get too excited about KGN from a comparative valuation perspective. In other words, good project, good people, but I don't like the risk/reward ratio as much as the other gold producers, developers and explorers that I am buying instead (that could change, just as we're now long Silvercorp whereas at the beginning of the year we thought it was significantly overvalued). In any case what we're concerned about here is the short term, and it could definitely move higher under the pressure of continued GDXJ buying in the short term regardless of anything else.
Reacting To A Rebalancing Of Junior Gold Miners ETF [View article]
This is nothing new, but TNR is certainly trying its best to showcase the issue, perhaps to put a kink in the merger. Speaking of which, we think the merger is a terrible deal for Minera Andes shareholders. Meanwhile TNR could be a decent speculative play. For the record I own a very small position acquired recently at $0.07.
Reacting To A Rebalancing Of Junior Gold Miners ETF [View article]
In our opinion, First Majestic (AG) is one of the highest quality silver producers and that's why we would look to take advantage of any significant price weakness resulting from this mechanical selling.
As to Jaguar (JAG) we've written a fair amount about it and would point you to several of our reports:
Our real question is what universe of companies they are applying their formulas to since there seem to be a number of companies that aren't being added to the index that otherwise meet the criteria. Of course they won't simply give us their universe since then it would be incredibly easy for us and everyone else to trade ahead of their decisions (and are no doubt already trying to).
Reacting To A Rebalancing Of Junior Gold Miners ETF [View article]
You might be right. I guess question is why it hasn't been added already. The GDX index is not determined by 4asset-management and therefore there is already some overlap between GDXJ and GDX. For example, Silver Standard is already a constituent of the GDX.
We would need to spend some additional time learning the GDX rebalancing mechanics (I believe this would require looking into the underlying NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index) in order to best determine whether any compelling investment strategies may exist along these lines (e.g. buying certain companies when dropped from the GDXJ that are not part of the GDX if there is some certainty they will soon be added).
First off, where is your quote coming from? I wrote this article 5 years ago now so forgive my uneducated question.
I have in fact graduated from high school and university believe it or not, but I did write the above before my 20th birthday and therefore by your awesome powers of logic you've probably now realized I'm not Ted Butler.
Let's get something straight. The article was written primarily as a refutation of the idea that silver was more rare than gold. I think I accomplished this regardless of anything else stated in the analysis.
I'll admit that I was too much a silver bug myself when I wrote this and I have no real problems with your criticism other than your mean spirit.
But that doesn't take away from the fact that I spent many, many hours pouring through decades old USGS yearbooks and countless pages of other data to come to my own conclusions about the size of the market instead of just parroting the typical silverbull BS.
Were I to rewrite the analysis today (perhaps it's about time) it would no doubt come out MUCH differently and I would be careful to avoid the logic pitfalls you describe.
Social Media And Mining - Pairs Trading And Inefficient Markets [View article]
Social Media And Mining - Pairs Trading And Inefficient Markets [View article]
Visualizing Tasman Metals: Heavy Rare Earths Contender [View article]
Visualizing Tasman Metals: Heavy Rare Earths Contender [View article]
For those interested in Tasman, I've just published a pretty significant analysis of the PEA released in late March: http://bit.ly/J7Ciew
Lots to chew on.
A Pairs Trade On Royalties: Long Silver Wheaton, Short Royal Gold [View article]
The good news is that there's a simple workaround. For charts that are difficult to view (#2-7) SIMPLY RIGHT-CLICK AND OPEN THEM IN A NEW TAB.
International Tower Hill: Picking Up the Pace [View article]
We've written more since then if you're interested, for example: http://bit.ly/tj4Amu
Reacting To A Rebalancing Of Junior Gold Miners ETF [View article]
http://bit.ly/ojOuS9
It doesn't tend to change much on a day-to-day basis since rebalancing happens quarterly and otherwise it's just a matter of balancing supply and demand for the ETF. The exception is when a company is dropped from the index mid-quarter, but this is rare.
Reacting To A Rebalancing Of Junior Gold Miners ETF [View article]
Reacting To A Rebalancing Of Junior Gold Miners ETF [View article]
Reacting To A Rebalancing Of Junior Gold Miners ETF [View article]
www.metalaugmentor.com...
I can't get too excited about KGN from a comparative valuation perspective. In other words, good project, good people, but I don't like the risk/reward ratio as much as the other gold producers, developers and explorers that I am buying instead (that could change, just as we're now long Silvercorp whereas at the beginning of the year we thought it was significantly overvalued). In any case what we're concerned about here is the short term, and it could definitely move higher under the pressure of continued GDXJ buying in the short term regardless of anything else.
Reacting To A Rebalancing Of Junior Gold Miners ETF [View article]
Reacting To A Rebalancing Of Junior Gold Miners ETF [View article]
As to Jaguar (JAG) we've written a fair amount about it and would point you to several of our reports:
Mid-Tier Gold Producers - First Report 2011
www.metalaugmentor.com...
Ranking the Initial Mid-Tier Gold Producers
www.metalaugmentor.com...
I own a small position (bought below $4.50) but generally prefer other mid-tier gold producers.
Reacting To A Rebalancing Of Junior Gold Miners ETF [View article]
www.4asset-management....
More here as well:
www.4asset-management....
Our real question is what universe of companies they are applying their formulas to since there seem to be a number of companies that aren't being added to the index that otherwise meet the criteria. Of course they won't simply give us their universe since then it would be incredibly easy for us and everyone else to trade ahead of their decisions (and are no doubt already trying to).
Reacting To A Rebalancing Of Junior Gold Miners ETF [View article]
We would need to spend some additional time learning the GDX rebalancing mechanics (I believe this would require looking into the underlying NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index) in order to best determine whether any compelling investment strategies may exist along these lines (e.g. buying certain companies when dropped from the GDXJ that are not part of the GDX if there is some certainty they will soon be added).
The Real Silver Deficit (SLV) [View article]
I have in fact graduated from high school and university believe it or not, but I did write the above before my 20th birthday and therefore by your awesome powers of logic you've probably now realized I'm not Ted Butler.
Let's get something straight. The article was written primarily as a refutation of the idea that silver was more rare than gold. I think I accomplished this regardless of anything else stated in the analysis.
I'll admit that I was too much a silver bug myself when I wrote this and I have no real problems with your criticism other than your mean spirit.
But that doesn't take away from the fact that I spent many, many hours pouring through decades old USGS yearbooks and countless pages of other data to come to my own conclusions about the size of the market instead of just parroting the typical silverbull BS.
Were I to rewrite the analysis today (perhaps it's about time) it would no doubt come out MUCH differently and I would be careful to avoid the logic pitfalls you describe.