In their February 27th Hot Flash, the Boyd Group International notes that United will replace Southwest in the Sarasota-Chicago market. They write that it is "the first time that a legacy carrier has entered a substantial market abandoned by an LCC." Frontier's entrance into terminated AirTran markets also calls Southwest's competitiveness into question.
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According to Oliver Wyman, we should expect to see "narrowing CASM gap between the value carriers and the network carriers, and solid growth in RASM for both kinds of carriers, strongly driven by capacity discipline":
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Do not forget the money pit that is the present-day ATC system. The Boyd Group estimates that ATC-related delays cost the industry around $10 billion a year:
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I would argue that Delta's network would not complement that of US Airways. Moreover, the DOJ would eliminate any potential network synergies.
"It is rumored that US Airways is currently discussing with creditors about the proposed merger."
Bear in mind that Parker has said that merging is "no longer a strategic imperative."
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Finally, do not overlook the negative consequences of government policy:
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Although the report is dated, exhibits 10, 13, and 18 (pages 12, 15, and 19, respectively) are worth noting.
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www.oliverwyman.com/ow...
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www.aviationplanning.c...
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