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Davis Freeberg

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  • Retail By the Numbers [View article]
    A nice rundown on the data. Thanks for bringing all these stats together.
    Nov 24 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Short Case on Coinstar [View article]
    One word - Walmart
    Nov 22 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Motorola Acquiring Netopia - For Too Low a Price? [View article]
    It would certainly be interesting to see CSCO try and make a play for NTPA too. It would make sense for their business and Wahlman's probably right about NTPA going on the cheap. On the other hand though, if neither MOT or CSCO both backed away from the company, life would be pretty tough for NTPA over the next couple of years. They compete in a crowded space and lack the muscle to fend off better capitalized rivals. If CSCO does step in with a bid, they'd be wise to consider it, but if not I wouldn't protest too loudly about picking up a 25% premium on an all cash deal.
    Nov 14 06:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Motorola Shopping for a Middleware Company? [View article]
    Ohhh I'm sorrry, the answer was Netopia, Netopia was the answer that we were looking for, and how much did they wager? $208 million in an all cash deal Alex.
    Nov 14 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • uWink's High-Tech Approach Aims To Disrupt Restaurant Industry [View article]
    I like their approach, but deep down inside it's still a restaurant and the first thing they taught me in business school was never invest in restaurants. In looking at the financials, it looks a tad bit expensive, but if you really believe they could take off it could be worth something over the long run. I guess my personal feeling is that despite the cool angle, they'll still face the same pressures that every restaurant faces and that the kiosk ordering will only end up being a hook to get people in. If the opportunity was so large it make me wonder why Chuck E' Cheese didn't just finance the whole thing instead of trying to do so through a penny stock. A lot of risk, perhaps a lot of reward, but personally I'll stick to higher margin businesses.
    Nov 9 11:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Shortfall in XBox 360 Shipments - Yet [View article]
    Good homework and interesting stuff. Microsoft could always slash prices for the PS3 launch or they could be anticipating strong early holiday buying, but 10 million seems like a tough number for them to hit.

    Nonetheless with Sony's supply problems and Microsoft benefiting from good inventory controls in Q4, their lead won't be easy for Sony to catch up to. It's strange to think about it, but the situation is almost the exact opposite of what it was like when the Xbox and PS2 came out only in reverse.

    The wildcard in all of this will be the Wii of course. How Nintendo got so cool again baffles me, but their Wii is undoubtably going to be one sexy machine and with it pricing more like a high end DVD player then a computer, I suspect that Nintendo may sell more then Sony or Microsoft. Regardless of what happens though it will be fun to watch.
    Oct 30 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NetFlix's Double Dose of Good News Boosts Stock Twice [View article]
    I've seen the analysts cite this "diminishing returns" argument several times and I've got to say that I don't fully understand their logic. The $5.99 plan is for 2 DVDs per month which means that Netflix is making about $3 per dvd rented. If you compare that to the 3 out at a time plan where usuage varies but where consumers can rent as many as 12 - 16 DVDs a month, you not only get lower profits, but also higher costs because of the increased mailing costs.

    The reason why $5.99 doesn't work for Blockbuster is because they also give away free coupons. This means that consumers are averaging $1.50 per rental due if they fully utilize the plan. The analysts may not like $5.99 and it may contribute less to revenue, but it contributes directly to profits and boosts Netflix gross margins. It's also gives Netflix an important last weapon for customers who would rather quit then stay at the 3 at a time DVD plan.

    While it's always possible that customer usuage on the 3 on the time plans can drop and produce higher average revenue per rental then $3.00, it's unlikely for the majority of consumers who clearly watch their DVDs on the weekends and ship them back on Mondays. If analysts better undersood Netflix pricing they might understand this, but I'd love to see them explain how exactly the $5.99 plan hurts profits.
    Oct 24 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What DivX Must Do To Succeed [View article]
    J - Thanks for the clarification, I was never aware that this was the case. Do you know why they are prohibited? Is it just industry policy or is it an SEC issue? Also do you know the rules for the quiet period? I was under the impression it was 30 days from the IPO which would have been last Friday. Even though the quiet period is over, I suspect that DivX will wait to speak until their earnings are released. I'm sure it will be an interesting call to listen in on.
    Oct 23 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CNET: Any Suitors Out There? [View article]
    I think that you are right. With revenue falling, it would be hard to justify an acquisition at this price. Cnet does have some cool properties, but it needs to cheapen up a bit before another company will be willing to step in to try and turn things around.
    Oct 19 09:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Media Center To Benefit From Movie Download Craze [View article]
    Sorry Barta, but I'm going to have to disagree, the iTV will be a huge flop. For years Apple fans have been calling for Jobs to introduce an Apple with a TV tuner and if they were doing that then I might agree with you, but Moviebeam has already proven that people don't want to pay $300 to have the privaledge of paying for TV. As for wireless keyboards already being around, I agree with you, but try plugging that wireless keyboard into your TiVo and see what happens. Absolutely nothing. TiVo needs to bring the internet to the TV exactly so that I can watch iTunes on it and YouTube and whatever content you crave.

    You can say that Microsoft is still a geek product, but the numbers don't lie. This year alone Microsoft will sell more Media Centers then TiVo has sold DMRs in the last 7 years. To date no one has solved the last 10 foot problem and with the lack of content available online, it will take an internet enabled DVR before we see this solution. To date, Microsoft has the only solution. Oh and Myth too, but that really is a geek product.
    Oct 6 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hyperactive Starbucks Traders Need to Switch to Decaf [View article]
    The real trade on Starbucks is to buy in right before they issue their annual report and then sell right after. That way they give you a free Starbucks gift card and you don't have to worry about it trading ex-dividend date. I'm not sure the tax implications or how they figure out the ex-Starbuck card date, but I'm sure that addictive little extra jolt of coffee keeps nervous traders coming back again and again.
    Oct 5 09:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment