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Davy Bui

 
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  • 13 Dividend Stalwarts Offer Safe Haven In Volatile Markets [View article]
    Thanks for the MDT insight. I did come across the spinal device issue in my cursory research but my impression is that industry analysts don't expect anything too adverse to come out of it, which you also call "unlikely." So my impression is the market is not pricing that issue too deeply in discounting shares but then again, who knows how Mr. Market goes about pricing things.
    Oct 23, 2011. 08:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take Shelter In These Standout Dividend Stocks [View article]
    2nd half of this screen is now available:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Oct 20, 2011. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Now The Time To Buy Transocean? [View article]
    Thanks for the comments.

    Yes, it's possible that RIG may not revisit $45 and if that's the case, I'm willing to lose out. Frankly, I regret missing out on NOV much more. But that's all past.

    Re: the dividend ... it's probably safe but who knows? I definitely would not regard it as a slow & sure grower, like JNJ or XOM or something. Management is taking advantage of some Swiss law that allows them to pay out dividends via additional paid-in capital to avoid Swiss withholding tax & the company's committed to paying out $1B but conditions can change quickly and of course, if US legal matters move against RIG, all bets are off vis-a-vis the dividend.
    Oct 18, 2011. 05:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West: New Name, Same Underperformance [View article]
    I'm definitely in for the long-term on the peak oil story but the big energy picture doesn't necessarily make the bull case for PWE automatic. I've heard mgmt for years talk about their promising resource but PWE is strictly on show-me status due to past underperformance and as I mentioned, their reported reserves is going in the wrong direction.

    I did mention the dividend -- this is as good as it'll get for some time and frankly, I expect management to cut it first chance they get if oil drops to $65/bbl. Only reason they don't now is probably to entice investors.

    If shares revisit $18-$22 by year-end, I'll probably be out. For oil companies, the name of the game is growing reserves. It's understandable for big giants like XOM to struggle w/ replacement ratios but not for smaller companies like PWE.
    Oct 13, 2011. 02:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Devon Energy Is A Better Buy Than Chesapeake [View article]
    Hey guys, thanks for the comments. Keep in mind, I am long both companies. While I am down on CHK management, their assets are very attractive.

    Richard, I understand your comments on my omission of CHK's various assets, which I only mention briefly and do not include in my valuation, and its drilling carries. This omission was by design -- I'm not writing 5 Reasons Why CHK Is A Better Buy Than DVN and in the interest of conciseness, I left those items out because:

    a) $3B over 3 years -- CHK will burn through that readily, those at best could be considered pre-paid expenses but consider that they're drilling carries in natural gas shales that CHK is actively moving away from soon as they can.

    b) I consider 25% - 33% stakes in your most valued assets to be major stakes ... I didn't say majority stakes but when someone owns 1/4 or 1/3 of everything you make, well ask the Tea Party if they consider that major.

    c) I didn't include the drilling companies (or CHK & DVN's midstream assets) for the specific reason that I am only interested in gaining energy exposure -- if I want exposure to drilling companies, I'd buy NE, HP, RIG, ENS, etc. True, they could sell their drilling assets (to who though?) but I don't know what they'd get. I remember buying BRNC 4-5 years ago at $16 per share and CHK bought them out at $11? Besides, I'm inclined to believe that CHK's greatest asset is that research center they have that keeps digging up all these finds for them.

    Anyway, I'm not sure if it would make a difference. Their metrics on enterprise value would look quite attractive. On the flip side, assets are balanced by liabilities so if you transferred (sold) $10B of assets to eliminate $10B of debt, have you created value (& lost competitive advantage that they constantly tout as the reasons for owning their own rigs in the 1st place)? If McClendon's not interested in doing that, why should investors take it into consideration as anything other than a last-resort backstop in the event of liquidation?

    In any case, I think both CHK and DVN are undervalued on the basis of their oil/gas assets but DVN is more attractive on that front -- that's the main reason to buy these stocks. If CHK does better on secondary factors like they own their own rigs and invested in non-core clean energy infrastructure companies, I don't think those secondary factors override that primary factor unless investors have good reason to believe mgmt will monetize it. If we're wrong on the value of CHK's energy assets, their service/midstream/etc assets aren't going to save our bacon.

    Oct 10, 2011. 07:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Analysts Wrong On These 10 Solid Stocks? [View article]
    Thanks for the comments. These screens are quick surveys of the stocks so further insights on stocks like CSC is always appreciated since some information, like true competitors not just peers in the industry classification, can only be had at by diving into annual reports, earnings calls, etc.

    My preference based on a 10,000ft view wants to go toward SAI but they don't pay a dividend so CSC is slightly more attractive as an investment and if they're taken over or bring in new management, raising margins (or a buyout) can serve as a catalyst for shares to go higher.
    Oct 7, 2011. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are These 9 Retail Stocks Ripe For A Buyout? [View article]
    Hey guys thanks for the comments.

    Shorts could be wrong on PSS. I don't know. I haven't examined the company in-depth but an investor going long against such a big short interest better know why shorts are so confident betting against the company and more importantly, why they're wrong. No dividend on PSS so I'm not enticed to look further since I wouldn't be paid to wait out the battle.

    As for my disclosure, it's just an artifact of the Seeking Alpha submission process. There's an "Additional Disclosure" below the "Disclosure" that says I'm short AEO $10 naked puts. The regular disclosure only allows you to disclose stock tickers, not options.

    Interesting that AEO is up today amidst a sea of red. Didn't see any news on a quick check but maybe there was an upgrade or something.
    Sep 22, 2011. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morningstar And The S&P Agree On These Must-Buy Stocks [View article]
    FYI, I am aware that the S&P 500 is an index, not a research firm. My original article title was slightly modified after I submitted it.

    If you like this article, please hit the "Recommend" button.

    Thanks for reading.
    Sep 22, 2011. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xerox Transforms Itself Into A Strong Buy [View article]
    Hey folks thanks for the comments.

    davidbdc, sorry to hear about your losses w/ XRX. Sounds like you bought into XRX much higher than $7.50, which is where my options are set. Above all else, price paid is the single most important factor in making investments. At $7.50, it's hard to see how you lose money w/ XRX. Even if the stock goes nowhere for another decade, you'll collect 2% annually and can even write covered calls for more returns. Keep in mind, if I wind up owning the shares, my actual price for XRX will be around $6.62 once the option premium is deducted.

    Toby, took me a min to figure out what you were saying but I agree w/ you -- some of these "lost decade" stocks are just too cheap now ... CSCO, MSFT ...

    lorddarley, sorry to hear about your experience w/ the company. Hope it's just an isolated situation.
    Sep 15, 2011. 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Powers YTD Positive Results, Cisco and Telefonica Best Bets For Future Returns [View article]
    Not quite ... once covered calls move against you, keeping the stocks means you have to buy back the options at a loss at a minimum cost of how much the stock is trading beyond your strike price. This is if you buy on the day before expiration when the time premium is gone. If you buy back earlier, then you must also pay for the time premium embedded in the option and because gold stocks are so volatile, this premium is substantial. This is why they are so enticing to use for this strategy. For instance, if MFN was trading somewhere around $17 or so when I got called away at $13, I would have to fork up that difference of $4 to keep the stock -- ideally it would have traded back down to $13 but since it didn't, I'd rather let it go since it'd raise the basis of my investment by almost 50%.

    One could make an argument that gold stocks are ulitmately more valuable kept in the portfolio rather than trying to generate options premium income off them. But it's one of several strategies I've used that's helped me beat the market near 5 years running now so I'll stick with it. If the gold bull roars ahead without me, so be it. I've been on since $600 & made a good profit.

    AUY is now back below my $16 strike so we'll see what happens in a month's time.
    Sep 15, 2011. 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Powers YTD Positive Results, Cisco and Telefonica Best Bets For Future Returns [View article]
    Nowhere do I recommend dumping Yamana or CEF. I did write covered calls against my AUY and would have given the chance on CEF but that is not a recommendation to sell. I'd prefer to keep them and the option premiums if given the choice but part of the risk in writing covered calls is getting called away (or having to cover at a loss). I've been writing covered call for years for good profits and while recent trading may suggest otherwise, the gold market is extremely volatile. While long-term trajectory is up, precious metals is a pretty rocky ride.

    As for the foreign tax on TEF, I believe you can reclaim most of that on your taxes unless you hold it in a retirement account.
    Sep 14, 2011. 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple, Berkshire Both Face Defining Crossroads: Considering The Investment Implications [View article]
    Hey folks, thanks for the comments.

    I am a value investor, not a high frequency trader so almost all of my articles are going to be about stocks I'm researching, not stocks I'm buying, for the simple fact that I don't buy very frequently. Readers can always find my portfolio holdings on my blog, where it's been posted for 5 years:

    www.enlightened-americ...

    As a value investor, it is not my purpose to have a "vision" of where a company or stock is headed -- rather, it is to estimate a range of possibilities, good & bad and probability of outcomes. Many people don't understand this distinction. Is it impossible that someone will pose a competitive threat to Apple, forcing margins and cash flows down? If a stock still looks cheap given the bad/worst case scenarios, then it's a buy in my book. If I have to depend on the best case scenario to profit then I pass. Your book may differ, to each their own.
    Sep 9, 2011. 01:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At 11 Tech Stocks, From Cheap To Grossly Overpriced [View article]
    Thanks for the comments.

    Sorry about the table. SeekingAlpha doesn't allow me to see preview the article nor allow me to adjust it post-publishing. I'll keep my tables smaller in the future. In the meantime, you can view a spreadsheet version of that table, which also has extra data in it here:

    enlightened-american.c...

    Re: cash figure for AAPL, my statistics are pulled down from Yahoo!, Reuters and MSN Money. The cash figure in particular is from Capital IQ. I use these services to quickly screen and survey investment prospects. If I find a promising stock, I dig into the company's financial statements in-depth. Didn't reach that stage with AAPL. Perhaps Capital IQ has not updated with the latest quarter or maybe they don't classify Treasurys as cash, I don't know. A similiar error showed up in this week's Barron's, there were 2 articles, one showing AAPL w/ $30 cash and one stating it had considerably more.

    @lafalot1965 -- I agree that AAPL is undervalued if it can maintain its current cash flow rate. That's exactly what I say in my 1st 3 sentences about AAPL in the article. I even say it's likely Apple can maintain this pace. But they don't have a proven track record of generating $25B - $30B free cash flow every year and that track record is important for my investing strategy as it's what allows me to sleep at night. A stock like CSCO is cheap even if its cash flow drops off some in the next few years -- there's a margin of safety built in.

    Trust me folks, I actually want to buy AAPL (its stock, like its products, are very sexy) and spent some time trying to justify buying it. Even Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger eventually turned into GARP investors, right? But that's not what I'm good at and investors, like management, get into trouble when they start branching outside of core competencies. Long-term investment success is about process, not picks. Process generates picks, not the other way around.

    I'm sure folks will do fine w/ AAPL but I can't buy it based on the criteria I use. Different strokes for different folks but my process has worked well for me in the 5 years I've been posting online. My YTD and long-term results from my real-money portfolio are online for readers' reference:

    www.enlightened-americ...
    Sep 1, 2011. 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Energy Stock Alternatives To Chesapeake Energy [View article]
    Ricarro, there is downside risk in everything, including bonds. I'm sure many of today's Treasury investors will eventually suffer major losses one day even as they "enjoy" a paltry 2% yield over 10 years ... but that has nothing to do w/ CHK.

    I am not predicting a 20% drop in CHK's stock price. No one can predict what commodity prices will do in the short term -- I've been expecting a pullback in gold now for some time to no avail. These companies have weathered severe price drops in gas and oil as recently as 2008/2009 so I am comfortable holding until they reach fair value. I'm a value guy and from my standpoint, it makes no sense to sell undervalued stock on the basis of a hunch (who's hunch?) the stock may suffer a short-term drop. I am not a trader. For readers' reference, my portfolio is posted online with YTD and long-term results:

    www.enlightened-americ...

    Dividends are for all investors, bonds and equity alike. Dividends are REAL returns, not paper gains and cannot be squandered by management in the future. My CHK preferred D have generated nearly 20% of my cost in cash returns since I bought them in late 2008. Long-term studies of the market have shown dividends comprise nearly all of investors' total return (one link below, sure you can find others).

    www.cnbc.com/id/405325...

    Sounds like we just have different investing styles ... definitely more than one way to win.
    Aug 31, 2011. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Energy Stock Alternatives To Chesapeake Energy [View article]
    Hey guys, thanks for the comments. I have owned both DVN & TLM in the past and am partial to DVN because as sligoo mentions, they have better growth opportunities AND I trust their management more to execute.

    Caymagnate, nat gas has been down in the dumps for a while now but I continue to hold my CHK preferreds because they do pay a 5% dividend. It's tough to predict where gas & oil prices will go in the short term but CHK (& DVN & TLM) proved they can survive brutal price drops in 2008-2009 so I'm comfortable moving into these stocks even if prices drop.
    Aug 30, 2011. 08:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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