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Daya Baran
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Daya Baran, is the founder of Stocknomics, which is a culmination of his expertise spanning social commerce, technology and finance. Previously he founded a series of companies in eFinance, storage and search. Prior to that, he was a fund manager for an internet fund focused in the build out of... More
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  • Apple: Where It Could Trade After Q4, 2012 Earnings (AAPL)

    (click to enlarge)

    Apple $AAPL gave guidance that it expects Q4, 2012 earnings per share of $7.65. Based on that I did some modeling as to where the stock price might be given under different scenarios. In the first row "Q4 Guidance", I get a share price of $668.67 based on EPS of $43.14 at the current PE of 15.50. I arrived at $43.14 by adding Q1 + Q2 + Q3 + Q4 earnings.

    In "Scenario 1″, based on EPS of $43.14 and a PE of 13.75, I see Apple shares at $593.18.

    In "Scenario 2″, based on EPS of $43.14 and a PE of 14.00, I see Apple shares at $603.96.

    In "Scenario 3″, based on EPS of $43.34 and a PE of 14.50, I see Apple shares at $628.43.

    In "Scenario 4″, based on EPS of $43.54 and a PE of 15.00, I see Apple shares at $653.10.

    In "Scenario 5″, based on EPS of $43.64 and a PE of 15.00, I see Apple shares at $676.42.

    I believe, these numbers are very conservative. Apple $AAPL could report EPS that blows everything out of the water. However, if you are playing earnings you need to keep an eye on these numbers.

    I am long Apple $AAPL

    Disclosure: I am long AAPL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Oct 24 2:04 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Apple Needs $150 iPhone To Capture Chinese Smartphone Market

    China Unicom, the only authorized carrier for Apple's iPhone in China announced today that the demand for smart phones in the China market in 2012 is forecast at 200 million units and 44% of which, that is, 88 million units, will be sold at below CNY800 (US $130), meaning big opportunities for China Unicom, the company said. China Unicom announced partnerships with Apple's major competitors among LG Electronics, Nokia, HTC, Motorola Mobility as well as China-based vendors K-Touch and Xiaomi Technology to address this market. Apple's least expensive phone is over $200 on Ebay and China Unicom accounts for about 25% of the market this development limits Apple's current market share to a maximum of 12% or so of the largest smart phone market in China. If Apple would offer an entry level phone at this price point such as an earlier version of the iPhone Apple could gain significant market share in China.

    Source: WebGuild

    Disclosure: I am long AAPL.

    Jun 05 11:56 AM | Link | 1 Comment
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