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Dean Bubley  

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  • RIM: Earnings Show They're Still in the Game [View article]
    Most of the problem is that North American commentators don't realise that BlackBerry's are being virally adopted by teenagers & younger people globally. In the UK, France etc nobody under 25 wants an iPhone, they're considered to be for old people

    It's about SMS and BBM, not about apps.....

    BB's are Nokia and MSN replacements. Completely separate market to Apple & Android, especially for prepay users (ie 75% of the world) who aren't going to spend $800 on an unlocked & unsubsidised iPhone
    Dec 17, 2010. 08:11 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Part of Nokia's Problem: Make Ovi Compelling [View article]
    Download rates are interesting, but without detail about what is being downloaded, by whom, where and why it is very difficult to assert that this is *driving handset sales*. I've seen very different estimates for the free:paid ratio, for example.
    Nov 16, 2010. 05:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Part of Nokia's Problem: Make Ovi Compelling [View article]
    I don't write on this site. SeekingAlpha syndicates some of the content from my blog. I rarely read the comments or respond to them. Most of my revenues come from technology vendors & network operators (including Nokia and NSN sometimes) - a small amount comes from investors.
    Nov 16, 2010. 05:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Part of Nokia's Problem: Make Ovi Compelling [View article]
    Samij: US-based commentator? I'm a Londoner. SeekingAlpha syndicates some of my posts from my main blog at disruptivewireless.blo... . Sportstracker is interesting but under-promoted, could evolve into more of a deal-breaker I agree. Offline maps are feasible on iPhones et al, especially with the growth of OpenStreetMap

    Waterlily - yes, Ovi and various other things to backup and sync. But would it *on its own* encourage you to continue with Nokia for your next phone?

    FSC - I've seen the statistics, obviously. You may wish to look up the term "non sequitur".

    Pezq - I advise on technology strategy, not investment decisions. I don't base my work on personal preferences, although anecdotes are sometimes useful as illustrations. You've also fallen into the trap of assuming I'm based in the US and am somehow unaware / biased against Nokia - I'm not. You have also argued against a completely different point and question to that raised in my article, and indeed agreed with most of it inadvertantely through misreading it

    Dean Bubley
    Disruptive Analysis
    Nov 15, 2010. 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mobile Phone Industry in Denial About Economy [View article]
    The iPhone example is an interesting one - but coupled with other factors it's still quite a US-centric model that doesn't work quite so well elsewhere.

    Bear in mind that in the rest of the world, the majority of people use prepaid cellphone plans (often with unsubsidised devices), not monthly contracts. iPhones can be $500-1000 upfront in those cases.

    SImilarly, "ditching the landline" is unlikely in markets which tend to use ADSL rather than cable for broadband, especially if there is no legal imperative to sell unbundled DSL without an associated PSTN telephone account. Generally it is only the economically disadvantaged that "cut the cord" - it's not aspirational, except in a few countries like Finland.

    I'd certainly agree that Apple is better-placed than the Android ecosystem at this point in time. Slightly less true of non-US markets where people generally buy high-end Nokias because of brand, or basic preference for their voice and SMS user experience.

    Also, worth noting that in many parts of the world users would rather have a mobile broadband USB modem for their notebooks, than a smartphone.

    Dean Bubley
    Jan 12, 2009. 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2009 Will Be a Painful Year for Mobile Device Vendors [View article]
    The amount of memory really isn't going to be the determinant of Apple's lower-end price point.

    Bear in mind that the $200 iPhone price points only apply on long-term contracts (usually 2 years), that imply a large subsidy by the carrier.

    The "real" price of the iPhone 3G is more like $350-500. Certainly, if you buy it on prepay, it's a $500+ device, and in some countries more like $800.

    I certainly think that there's a reasonable opportunity for Apple to expand its market share, but of the overall global 1-billion phone market, it's probably chasing realistic addressable target of 5% or so for the foreseeable future, although 50m phones is a pretty tempting target.

    A more interesting prospect is if Apple introduces a smaller "iPhone Nano", or better still a clamshell version, as there is a large part of the market that would never go near a large tablet-type device.

    Dec 8, 2008. 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's New Product Blurs the Featurephone / Smartphone Divide [View article]

    I tend to agree, although Internet usage isn't necessarily the only measure of the value of "smartness". Arguably the reason that Nokia sells so many is that the OS makes it easier for *Nokia itself* to spin the platform into many different handset variants. And if you look at Japan, NTT DoCoMo uses Symbian for its own purposes, to create its own handset platform.

    But in terms of end users actually doing "interactive stuff",and especially browsing the web with large volumes of traffic, you're probably right, although there's quite a large number of people using downloaded Symbian apps for things like VoIP. Also there's huge differences between the US, Europe and Asia in all of this


    On Nov 27 12:50 PM KenC wrote:

    Nokia sells about
    > half of the smart phones in the world, and yet, smart phone usage,
    > as measured by internet access indicates very few people are using
    > it as a smart phone. You wonder if usability plays a role in that.

    Nov 28, 2008. 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comm Forecast No. 1: No More Landlines [View article]
    This is interesting to me. The US appears to have a fairly unique attitude to "cutting the cord" which is not present in most other countries. (I'm from the UK). While there is generally fixed-mobile substitution elsewhere, there is typically much lower use of cable & ADSL tends to be the predominant means of delivering broadband, except somewhere like Japan where there's been a big push on fibre. Also, the distinction in numbering between fixed and mobile tends to mean that most people accept the validity of both, for different applications. In the UK, I've noticed BT adfvertising its fixed telephony service is being cheaper than many prepaid mobile tariffs, encouraging reverse mobile-to-fixed substitution.

    However, one thing does seem fairly clear to me - copper is not going to disappear any time soon for calling *businesses* rather than consumers. While the very largest firms might use VoIP + copper, the average hairdresser or restaurant or travel agent seems unlikely to use cellular. In those cases, you want to call a place, not a person.

    Dean Bubley
    Nov 18, 2008. 10:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vodafone's Blackberry Phone Sans Wifi: A Big Mistake? [View article]
    In this case, the handset has been specified & customised for Verizon and Vodafone on an exclusive basis. Yes, RIM is the manufacturer, but they who pay the piper call the tune.

    I'm pretty confident that if they'd asked for it to include WiFi, it wouldn't have been a major challenge to add it - it's in the BlackBerry Bold & various others, for a start.
    Nov 5, 2008. 06:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Out of the Gate: WiMax Vs. LTE [View article]
    I disagree. Fairly few products will get WiMAX pre-integrated - there's too much wishful thinking about this, which doesn't fit with commercial reality.

    WiFi operates in unlicenced spectrum, and the testing/conformance burden for equipment manufacturers is *much* lower than for WiMAX. I can't see there being many cameras, game consoles etc that have WiMAX. The problem is one of scale - most countries will not have national WiMAX networks in the foreseeable, and those that do have them will mostly be in unfavourable frequency bands with poor indoor coverage.

    I reckon about 1% of global laptop shipments in 2009 will have WiMAX, and I reckon the figure will struggle to get to 15% even in a few years time.

    The main competition for WiMAX isn't really LTE, it's HSPA, which is already pretty widespread. This is the whole thrust of my post - LTE won't be mainstream until 2013 onwards.... but 3.5G cellular is already.

    Oct 18, 2008. 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With WiMAX and 3G on Your PC, What Will Happen? [View article]
    Thanks Stricklybiz

    Fair point - although that's possibly because I spend most of my time looking at the mobile industry, for whom pretty much all the computers of interest are notebooks. Certainly I hear a lot of folk in the wireless business talking about PCs as a synonym for laptop or notebook.

    Another case of the tech industry using the same words in different ways, in different contexts.... (you should see the range of possible uses of the word "application")

    As it happens, it wouldn't surprise me to see more desktops getting used with mobile modules or external modems as well.


    Oct 15, 2008. 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just How Late Is Nokia with HSUPA devices? [View article]
    I agree that it's not immediately obvious what the applications for UPA are - most of the ones I can think of are not necessarily operator-friendly: VoIP, filesharing, using the phone as a web server etc.

    On the other hand, it could be used for *operator* VoIP or other rich communications, managed P2P, decent-quality realtime video uploads & as a means to compete with home DSL/cable in some places.

    Some operators have been quite aggressive deploying UPA - especially T-Mobile in Europe, Vodafone, some of the 3 subsids, AT&T etc.

    Either way, it's unusual for Nokia not to have at least *some* devices supporting it before its main competitors do. It's been first to market with radio technologies like UMTS900 before.
    Oct 11, 2008. 08:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does a Mobile Internet Devices Market Exist? [View article]

    A few comments -

    Tiffy - yes, it sounds like we're in total agreement.

    Mollytjm "absolutely no one buys an iphone because they want a phone. they do want something closer to a pocket computer". Sorry, that's wrong. There are plenty of iPhone users who just want it because it's a phone that looks cool, at least initially. Some/most will later discover it does a bunch of other stuff, but certainly outside the US I wouldn't underestimate the power of aesthetics or subsidy.

    Also a sizeable % teenagers don't like the iPhone's lack of proper numeric keypad. It's impossible to send SMS without looking at the screen - you can't send messages with the phone under your school-desk / in your pocket. (And some non-teenagers would prefer a proper QWERTY if they're heavy SMS/email writers)

    Various - Bluetooth headsets are only useful for a % of users, for a % of the time. If the phone rings on your bedside table, or while you're in the pub, are you going to fumble around to put the headset on? No. Nobody I know uses a headset for 100% of their calls, and unless you talk while you drive a lot, probably few people are >50%. A phone needs to be a phone.

    Brewer - I don't get other "enthusiasts" berating me on SeekingAlpha or my main blog. Given I'm independent of the debate (to be honest, I prefer featurephones to smartphones for my main mobile device), it seems to me that Apple fans are particularly vociferous - and go out looking to start a fight with people who aren't being belligerent.

    Others - clearly there's broad mix of people who want smaller/larger and single/multiple devices. It depends on wealth, existing behaviour, country, preferred services, preferred usage models, whether you carry a bag, how large your pockets are and a zillion other factors. Proclaiming one device or form-factor as the God Product is unreasonable.


    Sep 18, 2008. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does a Mobile Internet Devices Market Exist? [View article]

    Read the post again. As I said, you can choose whether or not to include the iPhone in the "MID" category depending on how you define the segments. You can call it a small MID or a large smartphone, or both, depending on your preference.

    And as you yourself say "it's redefining the cellphone market". I'm not talking about the cellphone market, I'm talking about MIDs.

    Honestly, I'm getting fed up with iPhone fanboys trying to read criticism into anything I wrote about the thing, particularly when I'm praising it. I've repeatedly said its a good device - it's just a shame about the attitudes of some of its fans, who seem to go actively looking for negative comments, where none are made or implied.

    Sep 17, 2008. 06:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Complete Web Browsing On Your Cell Phone? Not Yet [View article]

    Yes, I take your point about standards, but there's a lot about the PC-oriented web which is based on de-facto rather than de-jure standards. There's a lot of websites with Flash, there's quite a lot of websites with Java, there's a lot of websites with questionable Javascript implementations (yes, I know the difference). PDF wasn't an open standard until a couple of months ago, either, yet most people have viewed it as "must have" for years.

    Many websites are "long tail" ones that are unlikely to be bothered about how well they render on mobile for many years, if ever. Based on the numbers I'm seeing & predicting, mobile access will remain a minority or secondary consideration for many website developers, especially in areas like B2B. I wouldn't expect Boeing's webmaster to be too worried about someone downloading 747 specs to a mobile phone, for example.

    The market evolution will be defined more by "public expectations than published standards", to use your terms. If a given customer's favourite website doesn't work on a phone, when it does on a PC, it's unlikely to be poor standards compliance that gets blamed.

    It's also worth bearing in mind the Flash Lite is already supported on a lot of phones, notably most of the current higher-end Nokia devices, plus it's being blended with Java by SonyEricsson. I certainly don't think Flash is the be-all and end-all of the mobile web, but I don't think it's going to suddenly evaporate either.
    Sep 11, 2008. 07:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment