Dean Bubley

2009 Will Be a Painful Year for Mobile Device Vendors

The amount of memory really isn't going to be the determinant of Apple's lower-end price point.

Bear in mind that the $200 iPhone price points only apply on long-term contracts (usually 2 years), that imply a large subsidy by the carrier.

The "real" price of the iPhone 3G is more like $350-500. Certainly, if you buy it on prepay, it's a $500+ device, and in some countries more like $800.

I certainly think that there's a reasonable opportunity for Apple to expand its market share, but of the overall global 1-billion phone market, it's probably chasing realistic addressable target of 5% or so for the foreseeable future, although 50m phones is a pretty tempting target.

A more interesting prospect is if Apple introduces a smaller "iPhone Nano", or better still a clamshell version, as there is a large part of the market that would never go near a large tablet-type device.

With WiMAX and 3G on Your PC, What Will Happen?

Thanks Stricklybiz

Fair point - although that's possibly because I spend most of my time looking at the mobile industry, for whom pretty much all the computers of interest are notebooks. Certainly I hear a lot of folk in the wireless business talking about PCs as a synonym for laptop or notebook.

Another case of the tech industry using the same words in different ways, in different contexts.... (you should see the range of possible uses of the word "application")

As it happens, it wouldn't surprise me to see more desktops getting used with mobile modules or external modems as well.

Dean

Does a Mobile Internet Devices Market Exist?

Thanks.

A few comments -

Tiffy - yes, it sounds like we're in total agreement.

Mollytjm "absolutely no one buys an iphone because they want a phone. they do want something closer to a pocket computer". Sorry, that's wrong. There are plenty of iPhone users who just want it because it's a phone that looks cool, at least initially. Some/most will later discover it does a bunch of other stuff, but certainly outside the US I wouldn't underestimate the power of aesthetics or subsidy.

Also a sizeable % teenagers don't like the iPhone's lack of proper numeric keypad. It's impossible to send SMS without looking at the screen - you can't send messages with the phone under your school-desk / in your pocket. (And some non-teenagers would prefer a proper QWERTY if they're heavy SMS/email writers)

Various - Bluetooth headsets are only useful for a % of users, for a % of the time. If the phone rings on your bedside table, or while you're in the pub, are you going to fumble around to put the headset on? No. Nobody I know uses a headset for 100% of their calls, and unless you talk while you drive a lot, probably few people are >50%. A phone needs to be a phone.

Brewer - I don't get other "enthusiasts" berating me on SeekingAlpha or my main blog. Given I'm independent of the debate (to be honest, I prefer featurephones to smartphones for my main mobile device), it seems to me that Apple fans are particularly vociferous - and go out looking to start a fight with people who aren't being belligerent.

Others - clearly there's broad mix of people who want smaller/larger and single/multiple devices. It depends on wealth, existing behaviour, country, preferred services, preferred usage models, whether you carry a bag, how large your pockets are and a zillion other factors. Proclaiming one device or form-factor as the God Product is unreasonable.

DB

Does a Mobile Internet Devices Market Exist?

Daniel

Read the post again. As I said, you can choose whether or not to include the iPhone in the "MID" category depending on how you define the segments. You can call it a small MID or a large smartphone, or both, depending on your preference.

And as you yourself say "it's redefining the cellphone market". I'm not talking about the cellphone market, I'm talking about MIDs.

Honestly, I'm getting fed up with iPhone fanboys trying to read criticism into anything I wrote about the thing, particularly when I'm praising it. I've repeatedly said its a good device - it's just a shame about the attitudes of some of its fans, who seem to go actively looking for negative comments, where none are made or implied.

DB