Dean Bubley

First Out of the Gate: WiMax Vs. LTE

I disagree. Fairly few products will get WiMAX pre-integrated - there's too much wishful thinking about this, which doesn't fit with commercial reality.

WiFi operates in unlicenced spectrum, and the testing/conformance burden for equipment manufacturers is *much* lower than for WiMAX. I can't see there being many cameras, game consoles etc that have WiMAX. The problem is one of scale - most countries will not have national WiMAX networks in the foreseeable, and those that do have them will mostly be in unfavourable frequency bands with poor indoor coverage.

I reckon about 1% of global laptop shipments in 2009 will have WiMAX, and I reckon the figure will struggle to get to 15% even in a few years time.

The main competition for WiMAX isn't really LTE, it's HSPA, which is already pretty widespread. This is the whole thrust of my post - LTE won't be mainstream until 2013 onwards.... but 3.5G cellular is already.

DeanB

Are Text Messaging Prices the Biggest Wireless Issue?

Mobile operators around the world are trying to maintain their overall SMS revenues by playing with bundling, pricing elasticity and so forth. Volumes are going up, but (on average) prices are coming down. They are trying to encourage users to adopt large bundles (with a cheap "per message" rate but better revenue visibility) by increasing one-off message prices.

That said, some of the US carriers' pricing seems egregiously high when compared to prices of 1c or less in some countries in Asia which use essentially the same type of infrastructure.

There is a fine line between "value-based pricing", where the user willingly pays a premium for a service they really like - and "resentment-based pricing", where the user feels extorted, but pays anyway as it's a "must have" service. Resentment-based pricing leads to spectacular churn rates at a later date, when credible competition appears. It also leads to regulatory pressure if customers feel ripped-off.

From a European analyst's perspective, some of the North American carriers are now seriously miscalibrating the value/resentment balance on SMS pricing.