Dean Bubley

Are Global Smartphone Sales Poised For Takeoff?

Thanks for the comments.

To the first poster Papita with the rant "you people are coming out of the woodwork" - you're talking gibberish. I've been a technology industry analyst for 17 years and advise clients (mostly non-investors like manufacturers and network operators) on trends in a variety of mobile sectors. The content here is syndicated from my own mobile-industry blog.

MightBuyOneNow & others - This is something on which I've done a lot of research. In my view, this notion that smartphones will be substitutes PCs for people in developing markets is wishful thinking by people in the mobile industry. It's not supported by observed facts, although obviously there are occasional specific exceptions.There are numerous reasons, not least the fact that PC prices are falling rapidly, and PCs have (typically) a 2x or 3x working life compared to a phone. They can also be shared more easily among families. Further, kids in education get access to PCs as governments wish to encourage future computer literacy for business, and develop local software industries. I'm not aware that anyone *writes* software on a phone, or runs their company's accounting system on one either.

Then there are hidden factors - for example, many people in developing countries use PCs to watch (often illegally copied) movies bought on video CDs or DVDs. And it's difficult for teenagers to have 15 separate IM chat windows open on a phone.

This doesn't mean that people won't want Internet access on mobile devices as well - that will certainly be a growing trend, and indeed is probably the main thing driving smartphone sales.

In China, according to official stats, about 73m people access the Internet on mobile phones... but virtually all of them also access it on PCs. The vision of "mobile-only" Internet users is a myth, with a specific exception for Japan, and to a lesser degree in India.

For more detail, please see:
disruptivewireless.blo...
disruptivewireless.blo...

Thanks

Dean Bubley