Comments on Dean Laster's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/dean-laster/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/74098-why-the-e-trade-shorts-have-it-wrong?source=feed#comment-186861 186861 Tue, 17 Jun 2008 02:39:22 -0400
/ Victor Cederhage]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-179477 179477 Thu, 05 Jun 2008 01:08:20 -0400 As others have noted many times above, ETFC has the most technically sophisticated, investor friendly Web platform in the industry...bar none.
Whoever their IT/Web engineers are they should triple their salaries and lock em up, less the competition steals them. In my experience, Customer Service is outstanding...they call me periodically to ascertain my satisfaction level. When I have a question and call in, I get through almost immediately ( granted based on the customers' assets on account ). Overall, great company...hope the breakout discussed here happens and happens big. i'm , as you can guess, LONG]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-175630 175630 Wed, 28 May 2008 21:31:18 -0400 As I see it,there's no guarantee that last Q's noted improvement in the loan portfolio won't reverse.Macro trends in housing and incomes don't indicate to me any clear improvement in the mortgage holders lot,delinquencies and defaults continue to trend upward.And the Fed may be out of bullets.
I don't know how bad it might be or become but ETFC has around $40 Billion in loans that could get in some degree of trouble.

The MF seems to equate ETFC's status with TMA and others diluting their shares:


fool.com/investing...

"Whether Thornburg will be able to keep its doors open is another story. However, the massive share dilution and delayed filings leave few reasons to argue in favor of owning the company's shares. Thornburg, along with fellow leveraged share-diluters E*Trade (Nasdaq: ETFC), Ambac (NYSE: ABK), and (on a much smaller scale) Citigroup (NYSE: C), have dug their own graves.'


SA author,R. Middleton has written a comprehensive series on the crisis and other articles I highly recommend,read everything he offers if you want to temper your outlook with some intelligent caution:

seekingalpha.com/artic...


Some other cited issues are asset sales,like the Indian deal just announced. OK,they get the $145m but they lose the rev. and profit going forward and this from a co. that recently was selling themselves as an international player.

Further,they will be paying over $50 million per Q interest to Citadel ,a nasty drag on potential profits.

Exiting the mortgage origination biz. Sounds good given the aura surrounding mortgages but recall this was once probably their biggest moneymaker,now gone for the conceivable future.And let's not forget it's expensive to exit a biz line,severance packages and all that.

Debt for equity swaps. Yes,they take debt off the books,a good thing but they are dilutive to shareholders.
And speaking of dilution,keep in mind the recent authorization of 600 million shares by management.
Those pumping ETFC would have you believe that mgt. just ran out of authorized shares for routine corporate purposes like ESOPs and debt for equity swaps.Maybe, but did they need to double the existing 600 million shares,seems like they have something in mind that a more modest 1-200 million shares might not cover.
Curious!

The MF seems to equate ETFC's status with TMA and others diluting their shares:
fool.com/investing...

"Whether Thornburg will be able to keep its doors open is another story. However, the massive share dilution and delayed filings leave few reasons to argue in favor of owning the company's shares. Thornburg, along with fellow leveraged share-diluters E*Trade (Nasdaq: ETFC), Ambac (NYSE: ABK), and (on a much smaller scale) Citigroup (NYSE: C), have dug their own graves.'

At the same time,Citadel registers for "potential" sale over 90 million shares it got for lending ETFC $1.9 Billion at 12.5 % last November. It also registers this debt for "potential' sale at the same time as the share authorization. Curious!

I'm not going to pretend I know what either ETFC or Citadel is up to but unlike the pumpers I won't assume it's purely coincidental and /or innocent toward shareholders.
If nothing else it adds a huge dose of uncertainty to the equation and we know how uncertainty is treated by Wall Street.
And speaking of Citadel,FWIW,in March a hedgefund manager stated:

"The anonymous fund manager said Citadel, which did not return a call 
seeking comment, paid such a low price for the mortgage book, and got 
such favorable terms on the loan, that it would have been foolish for 
other hedge funds to blindly follow into the stock. After all, he 
said, Citadel was getting in cheap.
"Why would any bull point to Citadel?" he said. "

Frankly,mgt. is another reason I'm wary of ETFC.
Look at the facts.

Layton,according to published reports,was not the BOD first or even second choice for the job.

Layton,to my knowledge, is not known as a turnaround specialist,per se,and he did have some Enron rumors surrounding his former job,perhaps even contributing to his retirement.

To date,the pps has not improved.

Layton is very much at the mercy of KG,who I trust as far as I can throw.

Layton's heavily touted pay package would do best if he succeeds at a turnaround BUT he is getting a $1 million/year cash and will get a nice payout in the event of a buyout and I don't think there's any caveat as to buyout price.This is from memory so you might want to check the filings on that,not that momentous an issue though.

Bottom line,he hasn't been there long enough or achieved enough to rate him so he remains a question mark,IMHO.

I have more concerns but for now I think you can see my caution on ETFC as an investment is quite logical.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-173006 173006 Fri, 23 May 2008 21:01:00 -0400
Not only that s/he writes 24/7 negatively on E*Trade in such venues like Yahoo ETFC message board, but strangely positively on E*Trade's competitors on the discussion boards of E*Trade, even positively on the Schwab fund that a lot of their investors are now alleging being misled and suffer substantial losses, yet JBMARIA also claims that s/he HOLDs E*Trade shares!

So JBMARIA,

Do you mislead message/blog boards when you say you "hold" ETFC?

Do you actually short ETFC?

Do you hold SCHW or any of E*Trade competitors' stocks?

Do you work, or in the loose sense of the word "work", for one or more competitor(s) of E*Trade and manufacture all your negative posts for some hidden agenda, like an attempt for E*Trade's competitor to acquire E*Trade on the cheap?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-171497 171497 Thu, 22 May 2008 00:38:54 -0400

fool.com/investing/gen......

"Whether Thornburg will be able to keep its doors open is another story. However, the massive share dilution and delayed filings leave few reasons to argue in favor of owning the company's shares. Thornburg, along with fellow leveraged share-diluters E*Trade (Nasdaq: ETFC), Ambac (NYSE: ABK), and (on a much smaller scale) Citigroup (NYSE: C), have dug their own graves.'

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-171484 171484 Thu, 22 May 2008 00:18:28 -0400 Curious!

At the same time,Citadel registers for "potential" sale over 90 million shares it got for lending ETFC $1.9 Billion at 12.5 % last November. It also registers this debt for "potential' sale at the same time as the share authorization. Curious!

I'm not going to pretend I know what either ETFC or Citadel is up to but unlike the pumpers I won't assume it's purely coincidental and /or innocent toward shareholders.
If nothing else it adds a huge dose of uncertainty to the equation and we know how uncertainty is treated by Wall Street.

ETFC is a financial that has managed to put itself in an extremely severe competitive disadvantage to competitors Fidelity,SCHW and AMTD and its recent exit from mortgage originations virtually assures growth is the farthest thing from their minds right now Survival is their primary focus and gamblers only should be considering this equity.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-170796 170796 Tue, 20 May 2008 20:59:48 -0400
messages.finance.yahoo...

Read comments on "Citadel: are the selling bonds but buying more stock." Comments by Quasi and Numbersss are research informative. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-170793 170793 Tue, 20 May 2008 20:47:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-170772 170772 Tue, 20 May 2008 19:52:05 -0400
I've made hundreds of calls to ET Cust Svc and have a large number of unsatisfactory experiences - but it's still superior to the service and offerings from the other brokerages. I'm always warry of people who claim they've never had a problem, I conclude they only trade stock in a traditional manner and thus do not tend to have complications.

So complain all you want, etrade is growing because even if they stink at times, they are still better than the pack. As long as customers believe the company will stay around and the company focuses on superior management (and credit markets don't freeze up), etrade will recover quite nicely!

I own about 43,000 sh ETFC and have sold 2,000 contracts (not 20 contracts for 2,000 sh) $5 Put Jan-09 so far. I'm bullish! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-170720 170720 Tue, 20 May 2008 17:11:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-170684 170684 Tue, 20 May 2008 15:51:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-170682 170682 Tue, 20 May 2008 15:50:30 -0400
You are a total low life. I wish you get caught with your pants down as Etrade breaks to record highs. Watch out, the breakout will begin after next quarter's earnings report.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76067-tele-norte-primed-for-a-major-breakout?source=feed#comment-170627 170627 Tue, 20 May 2008 13:43:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-170605 170605 Tue, 20 May 2008 12:57:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-170588 170588 Tue, 20 May 2008 12:35:09 -0400 As far as customer service ETrade has the right people and really good service, I spent a half hour with one rep working on tax stuff IRAs and the like and shifting cash around she was great and she made it happen.... I was very impressed!!!! GO ETRADE GO.

I am very LONG on this stock]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-170543 170543 Tue, 20 May 2008 11:44:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-170252 170252 Mon, 19 May 2008 20:36:38 -0400
Also, when I hear about the complaints about etrades service, that has nothing to do about the stock price. A complaint about one persons interaction with a customer service will not effect etrade--just like my conversation with a chase credit card customer service person would effect JP morgan stock. The reality is that analysts will effect the overall moves in the stock, and that will be effected by numbers. Balance sheets are what they look at. Balance sheets are being shorn up today by etrade. The stock deals that were made today, where debt was converted into stock, and where an Indian company was sold for net cash--and tax liabilities were eliminated, all were made to effect the balance sheet. That will come into effect for the next quarters reports and will get analysts attentions. That will bring the stock price up, add market capitalization, and make the company healthy again.

Its amazing how liberating a scare be to a company and how weathy it can make patient stockholders. Patience.....Patience....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-170248 170248 Mon, 19 May 2008 20:18:46 -0400
I have 15,000 shares now with an average price of 4.08. Feeling pretty good.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-170167 170167 Mon, 19 May 2008 16:08:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-170149 170149 Mon, 19 May 2008 15:14:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-169788 169788 Sun, 18 May 2008 19:27:19 -0400
i am not currently long or short, but i am examining my options.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-169754 169754 Sun, 18 May 2008 16:11:48 -0400
Everybody loves a *Rocky* story. Etrade is slowly becoming just that. And expect ETRADE to take advantage of that perception in marketing thmselves to investors in the future.

They are getting buzz on the talking heads shows bceause it is a feel-good story. Don't underestimate this aspect.

I would never short Rocky Balboa as he picks himself off the canvas in the 15th round and throws some haymakers and wins in the end by TKO.

One more thing about CEO Layton. They recruited him from the board of directors and he had never intended to come out of retirement. But he did come out and they obviously gave him a free (and powerful) hand to do whatever is necessary to include canning all the old guard. He got the rest to buy into his leadership and he is like a god in that place at the moment. If he pulsl this thing off, it will be studied by Wall Street for decades to come.

Like I said, everyone loves a Rocky story. I bet CEO Layton does too.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-169748 169748 Sun, 18 May 2008 15:53:36 -0400
They fully realize that their stock price is the one thing they must protect. Not just because they all have personal stakes in it, but the stock price is what will help drive people either toward or away as customers.

The $2 mark was a panic low-water mark. You won't see that price again and as more time goes on the safer they are. Yes they are in debt, but they are fully aware and have revealed it more forthcoming than Citi or WM. They have a plan to pay it and as long as their online trading business grows at a decent pace, they will survive.

Their asset sales will not hurt their core business:online trading.

Look for a small profit next quarterly earnings report. They will beat expectations and then the price will take off and that is when the shorts will be burned. Management is working all this summer with that goal in mind.

And if they have another good monthly customer report that again beats expectations, you could see a panic occur earlier.

The CEO is an ex-JP Morgan guy and turning ETRADE back into what it was has been a holy-grail quest of his and he won't take failure as a result.

Gaining the approval of shareholders in the authorization of more stock is necessary step that has most likely been planned from back in the dark days. Remember, they must protect the price and perception of their stock so they have waited 6 months and a stabilization in stock price to announce it. ALso note that it was announced Friday after market and it was coupled with the announcement of them selling an Indian asset that will net them $millions.

Its all about managing the stock price and they had to eventually announce additional shares.

1. Insider buys 50K at $3.72
2. Quarterly report comes out and CEO is positive.
3. New trading center opens in Toronto (expansion)
4. April Monthly customer trades beats expectations.
4. Selling assets nets $Millions coupled with market closing annnouncement on a Friday about doubling shares.

That is smart management right there! They have planned and dribbled positive news and timed the potential negative news of the authorization of issuance of stock rather adroitly if you ask me.

Its impact will be negligble. The price will probably retreat back down to $4, but hey guess what, I am betting management has sandwiched more good news that will come out this week to come.

They are hitting all the right notes. Etrade will be a $10 stock by Christmas even as they will still carry a good bit of debt. Won't matter because the direction forward will be bright, and online trading is a growing business.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-169574 169574 Sun, 18 May 2008 08:16:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-169483 169483 Sat, 17 May 2008 22:00:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-169458 169458 Sat, 17 May 2008 19:37:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-169313 169313 Sat, 17 May 2008 11:25:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-169274 169274 Sat, 17 May 2008 09:27:29 -0400 before Etrade bought them out.
So far, I am extremely satisfied with the service.
I do not call too often, but when I do, there is no waiting
and my inquiries are answered promptly and courtesly.
Currently, I am 100% in natural resource stocks; but as I
start cutting down on my exposure, I will be swithing over
to ETFC.
I think they have the best trading platform in cyberspace.
IMHO.
Agman.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-169240 169240 Sat, 17 May 2008 05:55:13 -0400
It doesn't matter how they go bankrupt, you will lose your money. I only hope the optimistic fools investing in Etrade can afford such a large financial loss. Just remember, its not smart to piss against the wind.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77548-e-trade-primed-for-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-169195 169195 Fri, 16 May 2008 23:13:06 -0400