Dean Morel

Marc Faber: Equities Safer than Dollars

The following quotes are bought to courtesy of some seriously strong psycho-active compounds. Sorry I don't have anything positive to add to the conversation, OH wait how about buy Australian equities, that way your leveraged to a strong currency in the strongest modern economy with the greatest exposure to Asia.

<i>A US Engineer earing 6X one from India is sustainable as long as the American Engineer is 6X as productive. Engineers are not bushels of wheat - interchangeable.

Now are American Engineers 6X better. Generally. Indians get rote learning Americans get problem solving. Give the Indian a problem that does not have a book solution in a form he has learned and he is lost. Not true in all cases of course. True in the vast majority of cases.</i>

I worked with scores of Americans and Indians and making any generalizations like that is not only racist it's down right stupid. Even if we suspend belief and imagine that racist crud is true, then how much of an engineers time is actually spent delivering innovative solutions?

<i>The US could supply its oil needs from oil shale for the next century if the government got out of the way. Not to mention Alaska and off shore.</i>
That comment takes the cake. I am bewildered that an engineer does not even grasp simple compounding.

Could Crocs Be a Turnaround Play?

I wish OldiesLover, I wish. All your information was a great help and I got very close to buying as it dipped under $3, but choked when it came to placing an order. I guess I still have self-doubt issues.

I hope your business is rockin' and Crocs are walking out the door. If you're right about the 2010 then you and Croc shareholders should have a good start to the new decade.

How Should the Dollar's Impact Be Considered When Buying Stocks?

<i>Now, if your really smart you could have bought an Aussie mining company or two back in March with US dollars, changed to Aussie dollars, then sold them into the rally and changed them back to US dollars and made a fortune (in a future useless currency!)</i>
And I thought I made things complicated! All you had to do was buy BHP or RIO ADRs in the US and you got both the mining bounce and AUD currency gain.
finance.yahoo.com/q/bc...
In the last six months BHP.AX is up 20%, while the ADRs up are 60%, i.e. BHP + AUD gains.

Promising Signs for the Economy and the Equity Markets

Schweizer, that is a good chart you linked to. Have you done the same for other recessions? I know I'm guilty of parroting that the stock market is forward looking and turns up 6-9 months ahead of the economy, so it would be fantastic to see more than one data point.

I agree a PE level of around 10 could be reached, but that could be in 2014 or later. Are you going to sidelines until then?

Promising Signs for the Economy and the Equity Markets

Jeff, as always you're both informative and interesting to read. Your open minded approach is a shining light to all and a great contrast to people who say things like "There will be another huge leg down in equities". Will there indeed. It could happen, but certainty is something best left to marriage and kept well away from equity markets.
I rightly stand accused of confirmation bias ;-)

Four Reasons Why Aussie ETF May Dodge Recession

So rick12345, please do broaden our perspective. Are you saying Australia sells to Asia and that's it, end of story. How is that a broad view?
This is how I simplistically see it, obviously there is a lot more going on. Australia sells raw materials to countries who convert those into goods who sell those to countries who consume those goods. The consuming countries pay for them with debt and their information age services etc, e.g. think of an ipod and who gets what cut of the final price.

Then take a look at global consumption. Yes China and India are increasing, but they are no were near enough big enough to sustain the global engine.

I'll continue to be concerned about North American and European consumption until someone shows me why they are no longer important. Please feel free to do so. My mind is always open, I'm mainly here to learn.

I also don't understand your opening statement, can you explain that. <i>"with a $1 trillion deficit I really wouldn't worry about the the USD having any significant impact on world currencies"</i>

I totally agree that once the contraction breaks, that Australia is well positioned. We are yet to see the final stages of this secular bull in mining.

Four Reasons Why Aussie ETF May Dodge Recession

Maxe Paul has hit the high notes from an Aussie point of view. I agree with most of his comments and really want to get one of his crystal balls or wigi boards so I too can profit from short term predictions.

North American's may find it hard to believe just how good things are in Australia at the moment. "What recession?" is the phrase on everyone's lips.

Our Reserve Bank just made $.5B on currency trading, which is better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick and way better than selling us into slavery for a few generations like...well let's not go there.

Residential property is still over priced compared to wages. Housing is likely to adjust down at some stage. My guess is when interest rates start going up after inflation kicks in, but that's a lot of if and when.

Despite my ribbing about crystal balls, I too think a second dip in the Australian market is possible, especially if the recession deepens in the US. 50/50 chance.

There are many positives for Australia long term, especially of we can breed and assimilate a bit more.

Sector P/E Ratios (7/14/09)

Hi Guys, thanks for plethora of charts you provide.
I'm just wondering what Earnings you're using as your E is way higher than reported and even higher than operating. It's even higher than Shiller's 10 year average.
TIA - Dean

Digging Deeper into Historical Market Data 1871-2009

Ferdinand, hopefully you were able to provide your students with constructive feedback. I would enjoy getting some feedback from you on why using the same data as Professor Shiller at Yale uses is such a bad idea.

Davewmart. Great first line, it made me laugh. The article ended up much longer than I first intended and good editing is not one of my strengths.
I find most information has utility, like you I'm not sure how much utility my information has, but I'm a sucker for confirmation bias and it sure does affirm what I believe will most probably transpire over the next year. ;-) Thanks for you indepth comments on this post and my last.

Digging Deeper into Historical Market Data 1871-2009

My acronym tag didn't work here. The answer is October 2008.
Thanks for reading.

Could Crocs Be a Turnaround Play?

OldiesLover, thanks so much for your great insights, it's really generous of you to share your valuable inside perspective.
Good luck with your future sales. Here is Australia Crocs are very popular. One example is how Croccasins have replaced moccasins as the footwear of choice amongst bogans.
I'll dig into your comments on store closures.

Jim Rogers Shares His Thoughts on the Market

I have a lot of time for big picture thinkers like Rogers and Soros; however, bobbobwhite highlighted why it is dangerous to listen too closely. This article should have been titled "Jim Rogers Continues to Talk His Book".

Rogers is not an altruistic guy, he long ago established his positions in ag and commodities and now continues to talk them up so he can sell out and move on to his next big theme.

I have no position in silver, but that does appear to be the best advice coming from Rogers at the moment. The silver gold gap is historically large and should close.

The S&P 500 in Real Terms

Hi Vincent
For the sake of fairness you may wish to consider presented Doug Short's bullish case chart of the S&P as well.
www.dshort.com/charts/...
That paints a considerably different picture.

Dangers of a Dollar Collapse

I agree WMT is unlikely to be first to go under, but you may get a clearer view if you break free of your American-centric focus. Retailers in Australian and many other countries prosper when the USD falls. Their imports become cheaper, as they are priced in USD. What use is that? Well for starters an investment in retailers based in strong currencies, eg CDN and AUD, would diversify you out of USD and give you a shot at further prospering from a fall in USD.

For WMT you need only go back one year when the USD was tanking to see the effect on their business. I haven't done that.


On May 31 02:50 PM LKofScotland wrote:
> wal mart collapses? hmmm. doubtful. every other retailer on the
> planet maybe but i highly doubt they'll be the first to go.

I'm a Smith Micro Investor with Reasons to Be Wary

I just penned some thoughts on KongZhong (KONG) www.fusioninvesting.co.../
They aren't cheap any more, but if you read the conference call and Q1 report, you'll start to get an idea of the huge short term opportunity.
Alvarion in wimax (ALVR) - leader in Wimax, but LTE is coming in developed markets and ALVR have struggled to turn their leadership into profits.