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Dean Morel  

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  • pSivida: Thoughts In The Aftermath Of The Complete Response Letter On Iluvien [View article]
    Thanks for the excellent article Smith. Great analysis on the current pSivida situation.
    I too plan on holding my stock.
    Oct 20, 2013. 09:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prana Biotechnology (PRAN +14.9%) trades up after saying it's received approval from the Austin Health Human Research Ethics Committee to begin a 12-month open-label extension study with Alzheimer's Disease patients. The study is part of a Phase II clinical trial of PBT2 in Alzheimer's patients, and will measure amyloid burden and physical changes in the brain through PET imaging, MRI and FDG-PET, as well as cognition and function. [View news story]
    spot on aferraro, the Austin is in Melbourne as is Prana Biotech.
    Jul 3, 2013. 08:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysts Estimate Johnson & Johnson Can Outperform Pfizer Over Next 5 Years [View article]
    A few thoughts.
    If analyst estimates hold, I'll run buck naked around the world! The Pareto principle can be sensibly applied to analysts as it can to most professions. Only 20% of them are any good, so basing any decision on an average of all is fraught with problems.

    The TTM figures for Pfizer are clouded by the Wyeth acquisition and ensuing costs.

    Any chance you could dive below the numbers and paint a picture or tell us a story? Could this be a story about diversification versus concentration?

    I don't follow JNJ, but almost 20% net margins for a company selling their mix of products seems pretty damn good to me and far from thin.
    May 17, 2011. 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Biotechs May Benefit From Hepatitis C Treatment Market Shift [View article]
    Thanks for the great summary on the new wave of Hep C drugs. It will be interesting to see how Vertex's stock price reacts post approval, as approval already appears to be priced in. Though with a 10% pop on today's positive FDA review, investors seems willing to push Vertex even higher.
    Apr 26, 2011. 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell in May and Go Away? Yes. [View article]
    Also, stocks are EXPENSIVE selling near cyclically adjusted p/e highs. As I typed EXPENSIVE in upper case you just know it has to be true ;-)

    Margins are historically high and have only one to go.
    Market supported by QE. What happens if no QE3?

    Investors have brushed off major worldly concerns, they will re-focus on those same issues soon enough. Selling begets more selling, the media joins in and sells doom and gloom stories and hey presto those with cash get a buying opportunity.
    Apr 17, 2011. 06:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Benjamin Graham's Perspective on the Dow Jones [View article]
    Hi Osman
    Here is Shiller's data page and the actual excel file

    Siegel returns are compound and include dividends, if you're using a formula based on eps growth, as Graham's is, isn't it appropriate to use the growth rate of earnings rather than growth of the market which includes dividends? I think it is important to temper analysts forecast growth rates and keep them more in line with the long term earnings growth rate. I'm sure you're aware that most academic studies highlight the optimistic nature of analysts long term forecasts.

    I also think it is important to consider where current earnings are in the context of their long term trend. If they are above the long term trend line then growth rates should be reduced further as they will revert to the trend line. IIRC Graham used long term trends in earnings and market price to determine weighting of bonds and stocks.

    Thanks you very much for all your replies, they are much appreciated.
    Mar 11, 2011. 07:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Benjamin Graham's Perspective on the Dow Jones [View article]
    Thanks for your reply Osman. You're right on the current corporate yield, in my rush I looked at 20yr muni bonds.

    As to your buyback example. If a company uses capital to buyback shares then shouldn't you also adjust their earning down rather than hold it the same? Doesn't keeping earnings steady imply they somehow increase their return on assets to compensate for the reduced assets?

    Economics is not my strength, is GDP headline growth normally expressed in nominal or real terms?

    On average earnings growth. I quickly used Robert Shiller S&P data and came up with an average growth of 3.8%. If earnings growth of 10% was average then if you take the S&P earnings from 1970 as a base earnings should now be $285. My quick calcs show growth since 1945 and 1970 has averaged around 6 - 6.5%.
    Mar 11, 2011. 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Benjamin Graham's Perspective on the Dow Jones [View article]
    Good post Osman
    Ben Graham updated his formula in 1974 to include the AAA bond rate as a divisor and 4.4 multiplier. You can see it here

    Basically if AAA yield above 4.4 the valuations are lower, if like now the AAA yield is lower than 4.4 then the valuations are higher.

    However, Graham was also a fan of using long run averages for earnings and growth, rather than what could well be peak earnings based on peak margins.

    Do you really think the US economy is going to grow 10% per year? I'd suggest no way, but for the DOW to average that the economy would need to else the DOW would become bigger than the economy which we know couldn't happen.

    In short numbers are great, but it is important to layer on a sense filter. Does it make sense to have those high growth rates? Does it make sense that the most widely followed stocks are that mis-priced?
    Mar 11, 2011. 03:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Tech Losers and What to Expect Now From the Companies [View article]
    "Their peg ratios are crazy high." ng164300

    OPLK has a PEG of 0.44, I would never call that crazy high. Admittedly that is based on a high 5year growth estimate, but even if they only average half the estimated growth OPLK are still cheap.

    Of their $428M market cap they have $168M in cash and no debt.

    Perhaps just perhaps Oplink are eating Finisar's lunch.

    Long OPLK and short April Calls
    Mar 10, 2011. 05:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vertex Is Not Cheap Medicine [View article]
    You are of course right when you say it is the lack of knowledge that gets one crushed. It was presumptuous of me to think you may not know the risks you're undertaking, sorry about that. Good luck in the trade and with your strategy.

    Cheers - Dean

    P.S. Are any of your indicators flashing on LULU or GMCR?
    Mar 4, 2011. 07:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vertex Is Not Cheap Medicine [View article]
    Hi Robert
    Thanks for publishing your article. I am long VRTX, but my finger is twitching on the sell button.
    Though saying that, selling calls on a stock with such strong momentum and near term catalysts seems to have a low risk/reward profile. How big is your loss on the Apr 50s already and how big a loss are your prepared to take?
    Even if this trade works out, over time you will get absolutely crushed if you use a strategy of selling calls on what you consider overpriced stocks, when those stocks have strong momentum and near term catalysts.

    Don't fight the tape.
    Mar 4, 2011. 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take Two Interactive: More Than Grand Theft Auto [View article]
    Looks like the market likes TTWO's earnings
    Feb 8, 2011. 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take Two Interactive: More Than Grand Theft Auto [View article]
    Nice article David, but you must be joking about Zelnick and co.
    They should have sold the company to ERTS when the offer was on the table, but as it was not on their best interests to do so, they failed to act in shareholders best interests.
    Feb 8, 2011. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intuitive Surgical: The New Big Blue [View article]
    Hi alwanja
    Catch the Wind.

    This is not a recommendation, CTW is still very speculative
    “With small companies, you’re better off to wait until they turn a profit before you invest.” Peter Lynch – 20 Golden Rules

    Thanks for the heads up on Stereotaxis I'll take a look at them.
    May 23, 2010. 07:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intuitive Surgical: The New Big Blue [View article]
    JABean. Congratulations on your first comment on a financial site. I hope you share your thoughts more.

    Butterfly1000. The growth path ISRG have in front of them in phenomenal, thanks for sharing TECABG.

    donzoab. I think many investors, me included saw the opportunity in the mid naughties. It was a Motley Fool Rule Breaker in April 2005, I've been following it since then. I'm sure many saw it even earlier. The reason for this post will be become evident sometime soon as I highlight a company I think will have similar growth and is like ISRG in 1998.

    thanks for the comments.
    May 22, 2010. 01:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment