Dee Woo first gained international attention by writing a personal letter to Barack Obama in October 2010, attempting to dissuade the US from initiating a trade war with China. As a result, he was featured in much of the Mainland Chinese media, as well as in Hong Kong, Singapore, Macao, Malaysia, Canada and the US, including by the Wall Street Journal. Now he is an Economics columnist for many prominent magazines and newspaper cross the east and west.
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I am retired. I was academically trained as an Institutional Economist specializing in comparative economic sytems. I am very knowledgeable about the old Soviet style command economies as well as the various types of mixed economies that currently exist.
I am retired and live in San Francisco’s quaint Sunnyside neighborhood; I live just five short blocks from San Francisco’s only wilderness park: the world renowned Glen Canyon Park!
My investment approach is based on my belief that the US economy is transitioning from a currency based economic system to an earnings/wealth creation based economic system.
I think we are now in the middle stages of this transition: the dollar is still used as global legal tender, but there is vocal group of central bankers advocating changing the global currency system. And indeed, even among our friends, the dollar is losing its luster as a global tender. Our ongoing budget deficits, our ongoing trade deficits, and our ongoing commitment to deficit financing to finance whatever. Our policy wonks decisions makes many conclude that we are no longer in control of our money supply! Can we control expenses? The end will come because we cannot stop printing more money to pay for things;, our expenses must be paid for through revenues, not credit.
The only questions is how and when the end will occur: I think the global currency system will change quickly, with the dollar users simply abandoning the dollar: they will wake up one morning and decide it is no longer prudent to use the dollar as global legal tender. I think there is a strong possibility that the dollar users will abandonment the dollar in panic, like how the Dutch tulip traders abandon their stockpile of tulips, they woke up one fine morning and understood that the tulip is a beautiful flower but not worth the money they paid for it. Panic ensued, with tulip holders trying to sell their tulip stockpile for any price!
I doubt that the dollar abandonment (or the euro, the Yen, or other national currencies used as global legal tender) will occur slowly, simply because the last ones to unload their dollar holding will lose money big time.
So my thinking is that the global currency system will change suddenly, with both domestic and foreign dollar holders taking a loss, with the foreign dollar holders taking the biggest loss.
I pray that the global community will see this currency upheaval as an opportunity to work together to develop a global currency system that is fair and equitable to all players.
I am projecting that the US govt is near insolvent and that we will be facing a new Bretton Woods currency agreement bringing gold back into the monetary system in combination with a sudden fiat currency devaluation (across the board-most currencies) against gold over a long weekend or an outright sovereign debt panic by 2020-2025. The least expected outcome double digit inflation is very likely sometime in the future. The Fed PRO-POVERTY policies are going to crush the poor, fixed pensioners and lower middle class since disposable income growth is limited. Beware middle class and retirees your purchasing power will drop dramatically when everyday necessities absorb a larger % of your income. To spread the word to the brainwashed American drones that this economy is one big illusion ponzi scheme and you are infact broke. Issuing more debt to solve a debt problem is crazy. I am accepting nominations for those that played a major positive and major negative impact on our economy. Inductees: The Hammer Hall of Fame Bill Black Brooksley Born David Walker Ron Paul Robert Rodriguez Peter Schiff David Stockman Janet Tavakoli John Bogle Elizabeth Warren Steve Wynn ============================== The Hammer Hall of Shame Ben MadMan Bernanke Lloyd Blankfein Bush II Jamie Diamond Shaun Donovan Barney Fwank Dick Fuld Alan "The Maestro" Greenspan Tim Geithner Paul king Krugman David Lereah Angelo Mozillo Obama The NAHB The NAR Henry Paulsen Nancy Pelosi Charles Prince Franklin Raines Robert Rubin David Stephens Larry Summers Bob Toll Maxine Waters Lawrence Yun
Jorge Valcarcel is currently the CIO of Andes Securities SAFI, a regulated investment management firm based in Lima, Peru serving both institutional and individual clients around the world. A native of Lima, Jorge has worked in both New York and Zurich in various functions within Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs.