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  • We Hate To Ring The Bell But These Pharmacy Stocks Appear Overvalued [View article]
    A difficult balance. As-is it took over a day to get past editors. I will be releasing a detailed piece on each company that should satisfy you. Al/ the best
    Mar 13 10:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pfizer's Strong Pipeline, Solid Dividend Yield Make It A Stock To Buy For The Long Term [View article]
    The perspective offered by the writer completely misses the major issues and risks associated with PFE at this time.

    First, the pipeline is modest at best and the company has a long and distinguished track record of failing to develop and promote new drugs. Those that have recently been approved are marginal add on's at best or co-promoted. The company essentially had received a $0 valuation for its pipeline until last year which is now clearly overvalued.

    Secondly, for the drugs that are developed, the once infamous distribution capabilities of Pfizer are highly diminished. The company now operates with a fraction of the reps that it once boasted and increasingly employs less productive contracted reps.

    Third, though the company does report continued growth in established products (a new division) and emerging markets, the margin impact and future risk associated with this strategy are greatly understated. The risks are INCLUSIVE of a change in forex which have driven performance in many recent quarters.

    The company is also susceptible to macro pressures domestically as HCR in the US and budgetary deficits will clearly have the current administration at least entertaining pharma reimbursement cuts.

    Finally, the company has done a notable job in distorting the baseline in recent years. Marginally beneficial acquisitions, spin-offs, reorganizations and deep expense cuts all the primary levers that have been used to achieve this performance without us witnessing any revenue lift.

    My analysis suggest that the company did achieve an impressive run up through the late summer and is now over valued at current levels. Though I sold at $24 PFE would be fairly valued at $20.
    Nov 30 03:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pssstt! Pfizer Is Not Executing And Is Overvalued [View article]
    The generic manufacturers will benefit to a greater extent.
    Apr 30 09:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Critical Analysis Of Pfizer's Pipeline, Earnings And Valuation [View article]
    and...you seemed to be obsessed with me...
    Apr 5 05:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pfizer's Post-2012 View Remains Void Of Necessary Catalysts [View article]
    Thank you spute - I just decided to start writing again. Please feel free to "follow" me as I expect increased frequency of and detail in subsequent notes.
    Dec 4 04:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pssstt! Pfizer Is Not Executing And Is Overvalued [View article]
    I was surprised by Lipitor sales being so strong ('Lipitor saves the day again' was nearly the title). Though not popular, I stand by my target.
    May 2 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pssstt! Pfizer Is Not Executing And Is Overvalued [View article]
    Correct nScout. There are many under-publicized issues with generics...reactions with fillers, coatings, time release issues..not a fan and avoid when I can.
    May 1 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pfizer's New Breast Cancer Drug Could Be A Game Changer [View article]
    Apologies Mike. One correction for you, my search was on PD-0332991 not PF-00868554.
    Apr 15 11:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pfizer's New Breast Cancer Drug Could Be A Game Changer [View article]
    Hi Mike,

    Not always as easy question as each compound can file multiple patents and extensions can be granted or challenged from that point. The earliest that I was able to find in a quick search for PF-00868554 was 2007 (though that means very little). In general, a drug patent remains in place for 20 years.

    That said, palbociclib has been under development for some time as it acquired by Pfizer via the Warner Lambert acquisition in 2000.

    Related to your second question, revenues resulting from development agreements are typically split on a 50/50 basis though exceptions frequently exist.

    Here is the analysis that I provided on the announcement if interested;
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    and my full Pfizer analysis;
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 15 11:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid Reports Earnings Surprise As Revenues Continue To Slide [View article]
    Could be but I would like to see a lift in revenues. The revenue / store metric was encouraging though.
    Apr 13 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid Sales Continue To Erode [View article]
    Could be. Fundamentals do not appear to be improving though.
    Apr 9 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid Sales Continue To Erode [View article]
    Apologies all. This one was delayed in editing for a period.
    Apr 8 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Critical Analysis Of Pfizer's Pipeline, Earnings And Valuation [View article]
    Hi Dr. Barclay - The cash comment was suggesting that Pfizer can buy itself out of a number of unfavorable situations and not that I would prefer to be in cash. Thank you for the comment.
    Apr 7 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Critical Analysis Of Pfizer's Pipeline, Earnings And Valuation [View article]
    Thanks for the feedback. That cash can solve a number of problems. Feel free to follow if you like. All the best!
    Apr 5 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Critical Analysis Of Pfizer's Pipeline, Earnings And Valuation [View article]
    Nice follow up. All of the above are possible.
    Apr 5 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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