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Deja Vu  

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  • Chinese shares continue powerful ascent [View news story]
    Goldman Sachs (while frantically punching sell short orders) "Chinese stocks seem to have reached a permanently high plateau."
    Apr 27, 2015. 10:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • That Was Quick! Our First Premium Author Hits $200,000 In Annual Revenue [View article]
    to expand on the idea a bit,

    - "free" authors articles could be ranked by amount of money received (if the authors opted in to do that for each individual article)
    - this would highlight the articles that readers felt were the best and voted with their dollars
    - Unlike page view rankings, which tend to be higher for popular stocks, this may provide an alternate way for less followed stocks to be highlighted by a well written article
    - You might also rank readers by money contributed to authors, just a measure of how much a reader gives back (readers opting in of course to this ranking)
    - or give an author the option to bubble top 10 highest paid (for that article) reader comments to the top followed by all the free comments below. One problem would be that the positive comments (those who pay the author) would be at the top
    Apr 22, 2015. 12:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • That Was Quick! Our First Premium Author Hits $200,000 In Annual Revenue [View article]
    Another suggestion would be to add a "Donate" button so that "free" authors can get paid for the the value they deliver. Frequently, I would not mind donating $5 or $10 or even $100x (if my trade worked out :-) to some authors.

    I believe this would spur some authors to put some more efforts into their articles. From the viewpoint of the contributors who contribute an occasional article, you can get a penny each from a million people easier than getting $10,000 from one person.

    The donate button can be suitably named so as to not denote charity.
    Apr 21, 2015. 10:30 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • That Was Quick! Our First Premium Author Hits $200,000 In Annual Revenue [View article]
    An individual author is like an individual performer, having 2 hits in an album of 25 songs. Getting an subscription is, in effect, buying the album. Some authors write so much and so often, that like the villagers in Oliver Goldsmith's poem, my wonder grows "that one small head could carry all he knew"

    But there are a lot of one hit wonders who don't write enough articles to market a subscription service. Part of the value of SA is skimming large numbers of articles, to find the one domain or industry expert, who provides insight into a particular company.

    The authors who write large numbers of articles tend to be "bean counters" who focus on the numbers w/o knowledge of the underlying sector or industry. Indeed given they write on so many industries, it is not possible to acquire knowledge of so many sectors.

    In my humble opinion, knowing future trends and technological developments in a sector, that are not reflected in the filings, is the key to great returns.

    Here on SA, such authors who look ahead at future trends and developments, are routinely mocked by people whose only frame of reference is past earnings or revenues and who extrapolate the same into the future.

    Further, I have gleaned a lot from the comments column, esp. from those who disagree with the author and provide alternate view points. If an authors articles are commented upon by only those who value the author's opinion (and pay for it) the disagreement is likely to be much less a) because the people who don't value the author are not seeing the article and commenting and b) those who do see the article and comment are invested in the author.

    For example, Michael Blair has lots of people on SA who disagree with him. If he launches a premium service, and only people who agree with him subscribe, the number of opposite view point comments on his articles will drop to zero. For the record, I'm a fan of MB.

    This removes a valuable reality check and removes the value of alternate viewpoints and investing after reading a premium article may thus be more risky than investing after reading a free article.
    Apr 21, 2015. 01:21 PM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is The Likelihood Of Greece Leaving The Eurozone, Really? [View article]
    Zero
    Apr 20, 2015. 09:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Corzine considers launching hedge fund [View news story]
    The Obama administration wants to make an example of Jon Corzine and send a strong signal to others in Wall Street who want to steal from ordinary families....
    Apr 20, 2015. 09:15 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Owe The Bank $100M And You Can't Pay, The Bank Has A Problem [View article]
    The Greeks have figured it out. No matter what they do, the ECB and political class will give money to Greece to prevent the banking class in Europe, which loaded up on Greek soveriegn debt for the high yield, from going bankrupt.

    The ECB and the political class are pained that the Greeks aren't pretending to be the ones paying the banking class. Now it is becoming painfully obvious that the French and German (and US and British) banks are the ones being bailed out by the taxpayers for their greed in buying Greek bonds.

    The ECB and Euro political class are bluffing and the Greeks know it.
    Apr 19, 2015. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hedge Bomb - Why Hedging Will Not Save Shale Oil [View article]
    Yes, there will be a mark to market change in the values of the derivatives on the *balance sheet*. That should not be in the income statement or statement of cash flows. The only derivatives that will be in the income statement or statement of cash flows will the ones that are sold or closed against production in that quarter.

    Imagine a coporation that buys a office tower in New York. The tower may appreciate in value and become worth 10 times more than what the company paid for it. But that doesn't show up in the EBITDA or cash flows. That only affects the book value of the company.

    I just don't see how the changes in the values of derivatives will affect the income statement or cash flows unless they are closed out against production. All the mark to market will do is to affect the balance sheet.
    Apr 16, 2015. 06:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hedge Bomb - Why Hedging Will Not Save Shale Oil [View article]
    Firstly the changes in the values of the unsold/unclosed hedges on the balance sheet should not be reported in the operational results. They should be one time items, even though the values may change each quarter

    Secondly, assuming, that firm A sells a million barrels of oil at $50, firm A could also correspondingly close hedges accounting for a million barrels of oil (say at a strike of $90), probably the hedges expiring the soonest. In effect firm A would realize $50 million cash flow from the sale of oil and a $40 million cash flow from the hedge position sale/closure. The 40 million gets added to operational revenues, the balance sheet decreases by 40 million.

    the cost of the hedging can be added to the operational cost of the production to arrive at the operational profit.

    The gyrations of the value of the hedges on the balance sheet really has no effect on the cash flow. The hedges would perform exactly as intended, protecting the final sale price of the oil, provided the hedges were sold/closed along with production/sale of the oil.

    Your article seems to fundamentally assume the hedges are never sold or closed in conjunction with production and will be held to expiration.
    Apr 16, 2015. 03:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy Preferred Convertible: A 21% Yield Paid In Shares Of SD Common [View article]
    since this trades in lockstep with oil with the possibility of going to zero, why not simply trade oil futures instead?
    Apr 15, 2015. 09:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Street Applauds Disastrous Financial Results [View article]
    Standing in the middle of Times Square selling dollar bills for 90 cents and touting the number of customers you have...that is Netflix...
    Apr 15, 2015. 09:04 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney updates on comp sales after info leak [View news story]
    "...discloses that a senior executive gave non-public information to an investment firm on sales results."

    Somebody was facilitating some insider trading...expect a small civil fine and no admission of wrong doing and the concerned SEC official to be hired by the concerned investment fund in two years time at a high comoensation as a "compliance consultant".
    Apr 14, 2015. 09:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Nokia Confirms Advanced Merger Talks With Alcatel-Lucent [View article]
    Watson does not have a license to practice medicine. Neither will IBM incur the liability of suggesting the departure from standard treatment protocols for any individual patient.

    Watson exists for one purpose and one purpose only, to pretend to have some kind of godly knowledge and be an unappealable source of denying claims. That is why insurance companies are in love with Watson and have paid off a few unprincipled doctors in some premier health organisations to shill for it.
    Apr 14, 2015. 09:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Nokia Confirms Advanced Merger Talks With Alcatel-Lucent [View article]
    IBM wants " to provide data analytics to the healthcare sector"

    Translation IBM will conspire with insurers to create an ever changing labyrinth of rules, made up on the spot, for each patient, to deny reimbursement for claims.

    Insurers will refuse explanation and the so caled "independent medical expert" will refuse to discuss the reasons with your doctor claiming "Watson said so".

    Watson is a gigantic white elephant trying to learn its living by shakedowns.
    Apr 14, 2015. 08:10 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: LaFarge, Holcim Name Olsen As CEO [View article]
    I must rethink any future plans to visit Universal Orlando theme park with the family in view of new upcoming attractions...
    Apr 9, 2015. 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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