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Deja Vu

 
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  • Sprint launches $5/month iPhone 6 promo [View news story]
    Two things jump out...

    1. Sprint must be losing a boatload of postpaid subscribers this quarter

    2. I would have thought that Sprint's $15B commitment to Apple would have been fulfilled by now...apparently not....did they up for a new huge commitment to Apple to get the 6/6+?

    I haven't followed Sprint too closely of late after the Softbank acquistion, but looks like things haven't changed a whole lot.
    Oct 14 07:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lessons Of GT Technologies [View article]
    Anyone who so much as pointed out that sapphire was heavier, more light absorbent (hence needing greater backlighting with negative effects on battery life), extremely brittle was mocked and ignored by the bulls.

    Another very simple aspect over looked by the bulls for both GG and (especially) sapphire is that cracks usually propagate from edges. That is why most smartphones have a slight raised frame all around the edge of the panel, trying to prevent the start of a crack. The iPhone screen doesn't have a surrounding frame, the edge of the screen panel is exposed and rounded off. For a brittle material such an exposed edge will be an invitation for propagation of cracks from the edge.

    From the leaks it was clear that sapphire was *never* going to be used. I regret not using my knowledge to short GTAT before the iPhone unveil.
    Oct 14 09:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese iPhone 6 pre-orders reportedly top 20M [View news story]
    In other such reliable news, every chinese in the world was spotted with 2 i phone hoslter belts slung old west gunfighter style. That should be good for 2.8 billion sales.
    Oct 13 03:38 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some more steam blown off Tesla Motors [View news story]
    2 giant IF's will make or break this stock, not all these silly Model S &D's

    IF the "Giga" (cough, cough) factory actually brings battery cost cost down to about 1/3 of current

    IF the Model X actually appears as a real product in in large scale manufacture in the unsubsidized $35-40k range

    All else is noise. given the two huge risks, this stock is wildly overvalued. I discount bankruptcy until one of the two above IF's pan out negatively for Tesla since until then they have their own currency viz. stock to issue to keep them afloat.

    If either IF clause pans out negatively, Tesla is toast.
    Oct 13 02:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: Nowhere To Go But Zero (And Yes, I'm Shorting It Here) [View article]
    if they can own100% of the equity for 165m and make shorts cover just 5% of the equity at 6300% gain just like CYNK, the 165m is merely a cost of doing business...
    Oct 11 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Clean sweep for Starboard Value in Darden board vote [View news story]
    After reading the 300 slide presentation my takeaway was, contrary to the Orwellian langauge therein,

    1) Starboard is going to slash staff (only one prep employee in kitchen down from 3-4), remove limits on number of tables per waiter(ess)

    2) Essentially get food trucked in from some low bid contractor and stop almost all cooking at restaurants

    3) Shrink the menu drastically and remove choices

    4) cut back on everything starting with breadsticks e.g cheapen the salad, for instance, from lettuce being cut that day in the restaurant to getting it huge wilted bags from somebody like Aramark

    5) Add huge operating costs to Darden by spinning off the company owned real estate and then charging rent to the restaurants (and using the spinoff proceeds to give themselves a huge special dividend)

    6) Cut marketing down to next to nothing

    In general sell everything that is not nailed down to the floor, outsource everything to cafeteria contractors, cut staff to the bone, cheapen the whole (already cheap) experience. While Starboard claims they want to "enhance" customer experience, the presentation details a relentless series of cuts to the food and staff that will do exactly the opposite.

    All this to squeeze as much cash as possible, showing a temporary operating cost improvement at the cost of completely destroying the brand equity (to boost the stock price for a few weeks to enable Starboard to unload), loot the cash and leave the franchises as debt ridden, high rent paying shells of what they are now, while Starboard departs with cash while the franchise will be left like JCP post Ron Johnson.

    Thousands of Darden employees are going to pay the price. And ordinary stockholders. Starboard doesn't care one whit about the long term survival of Darden. By the time Starboard is done, Darden won't have a single customer left who will pay for the school cafeteria experience.

    And then Starboard's tame board will most likely issue debt to offer starboard a sweetheart deal to buy back thier stake at above market prices after Starboard has finished sucking all the blood out of Darden. Loeb & Yahoo come to mind.

    I saw a documentary recently on National Geographic about a bunch of agile quick killer whales attacking, killing and eating a huge slow swimming gray whale off the coast of California. Darden is the gray whale here. And Starboard and thier friends are the killers, who are going to kill this whale and leave the carcass in water and swim away.

    Trading idea - Go long short term (to capture the starboard pop via Jan 2016 calls spreads, and then short the pop, after taking profits, via 2017 put spreads when available) (Disclaimer : do your own due diligence, don't blindly do what I suggest)
    Oct 11 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: Nowhere To Go But Zero (And Yes, I'm Shorting It Here) [View article]
    as I pointed out above, shares becoming available to short could be a sign of someone buying shares in bulk and lending them out to draw shorts into a squeeze...
    Oct 10 10:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: Nowhere To Go But Zero (And Yes, I'm Shorting It Here) [View article]
    wonder if someone will try to pull a CYNK...if 45% is short, what stops someone from throwing in the 165m, buying the shares while lending them out for next to nothing (to suck in the shorts) and then raising the bid steeply and squeeze them to kingdom come? And then also start calling in the borrow as well as raising the borrow cost?

    Maybe, just maybe, someone is buying the equity to do just that and that's why it is not zero.
    Oct 10 07:23 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dimon joins other bank chiefs to talk shop [View news story]
    Reminds me of the meetings of the Mafia dons...minus the baseball bats. Still I'm long a bunch of these criminal enterprises since it seems they will steal from me with the help of politicians, regulators and the IRS, so its only right that I get something back.
    Oct 10 02:03 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Musk reveals dual-motor Model S with F1 acceleration [View news story]
    @cparmerlee

    You wrote my thoughts. exactly.
    Oct 10 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Musk reveals dual-motor Model S with F1 acceleration [View news story]
    This tops the Ackman "death blow" for overpromising and underdelivering.
    Oct 10 08:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How High Can Icahn Drive Apple Shares? [View article]
    IMHO, Icahn/IEP are probably in dire straits after Icahn's howlers in Hertz, Talisman, Herbalife and Chesapeake (and probably maybe even ebay). Icahn needs a big win to offset those losses. I have a feeling after watching the price action over the last 2 months, Icahn tried to spark a rally several times around 103-104 and is holding the bag on a lot of stock at higher prices than his original investment.

    This is some sort of desperate plea. His letter is so filled with the rosiest projections and so devoid of evaluation of any risk factors, it could have been written by some novice. Appending his name to this missive bespeaks immense judgement clouding anxiety.

    The most useful thing I got out of that letter was a hankering to short IEP. True he promised he won't sell into the tender. He might sell into the rally before the tender or mark to market his gains to make IEP look better after his disastrous investments in other companies.
    Oct 9 08:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: What Went Wrong And What Investors Need To Know About The Bankruptcy Process [View article]
    How about maybe thinking that GTAT declared bankruptcy as they saw that the sapphire they produced maybe has no large scale use case? In the end physics and chemistry can't be PRed away. It's brittle and light absorbing compared to gorilla glass.

    Gorilla glass languished for decades without a use until smartphones happened. Maybe, just maybe, the sapphire is the gorilla glass of a few decades ago, a solution for a problem that isn't here yet.
    Oct 9 03:59 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn posts open letter to Apple [View news story]
    Icahn's other investments aren't doing so hot (TLM, HLF) he must be getting a little desperate...even ebay has faded after the pop....
    Oct 9 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn posts open letter to Apple [View news story]
    Icahn opened his mouth and removed all doubt....
    Oct 9 09:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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