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Deja Vu

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  • Short Netflix After Q3 Results: Fair Value $70 Per Share, 80% Downside Potential [View article]
    I was serendipitously prescient. The slasher appeared today. Poor longs RIP. Bearish engulfing candle on the daily.
    Oct 22 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Panera cuts guidance, shares slide [View news story]
    You can only fool half of the people for some of the time...
    Oct 22 07:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon hikes free shipping minimum [View news story]
    AMAZON =

    Rhymes with
    Oct 22 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Netflix After Q3 Results: Fair Value $70 Per Share, 80% Downside Potential [View article]
    It's like watching a bad slasher movie with a predictable plot. As you watch the woman slowly walk towards the noise, you know the villian is going to jump out with a knife, you just don't exactly when.

    I'm quite sure, NFLX will crash, whether when one of its original content flops, or when the fantasy of counting trials subs as real is stopped or when they are forced to include off balance sheet liabilities, or when iCon decided to take profits etc etc The question is when.

    The put prices reflect that, despite all the hyper ventilation of the bulls.
    Oct 22 09:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simple Math Proves Pandora's Doomed [View article]
    you can't have a correction of more than 100% for a limited liability company....

    Secondly, your points are good, but this article would have been considerably more readable by the use of pie charts, venn diagrams and barcharts.

    Thirdly put prices are very high reflecting the possiblity of a downside move.
    Oct 22 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bubble In Blue Chips - Part 1 [View article]
    Hic, yesh, I did drinksh the whole bottlesh
    Oct 19 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bubble In Blue Chips - Part 1 [View article]
    Nice article. I agree completely with you. Can't invest long at these valuations. Can't invest short as the euphoria will last longer than my money. In almost all cash right now, which gives me heartburn as the bandit Bernanke keeps printing evermore of it.

    gold is too driven by demand in India. Not one of the structural problems such as never ending welfare, bloated public sector, labor laws, high taxes etc in europe has been resolved. Europe is being funded by the ECB which is printing money to buy soveriegn bonds both directly and via various fraudulent arms length mechanisms. one day we will see hyper inflation in Europe in the not too distant future.

    China is lying about ALL of their macroeconomic data. India is on track to be a big failed country driven by attempts to install a welfare state without enough of "other people's money"

    Brazil is collapsing under the same socialist banner aided by attempts of the morons in government to pick "champions" and by investing in stuppid infrastructure projects.

    We may also see the pending euro printing hyper inflation in the US (driven by dollar printing) which makes buying stocks a logical choice! I don't believe the Fed will stop the crack cocaine of QE until the dollar starts collapsing and US bond yeild start rising to about 10+ %. Previously the price of oil acted as a constraint against debasing the dollar, now with increasing oil production, that may be weakened.

    Unfortunately the fed idiots do not understand that the long term inflation expectations effect means that years of monetary tightening will be required to regain credibility. It's either going to be a decade of volcker like 17% interest rates driven recession or zimbabwe like dollar strength.

    OK, I will now drink a big bottle of kentucky bourbon after reading this article.
    Oct 18 04:44 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P sets new high, Google ends above $1,000 [View news story]
    The fed is pumping hydrogen and gasoline into a room filled with ozone. This results of this explosion will hurt many.

    Simultaneously the fed is inflating a tech bubble, a broader stock market bubble, becoming Freddie and Fannie combined by buying 85B of MBS, and also encouraging every single bank to becomea loan originator to have the raw materials to create MBS to sell to the Fed (that's why jumbo is now cheaper than non-jumbo - when banks are willing to charge you less to lend you more, you know something is out of whack).

    The iBanks are banking on the fact that they have now become depository institutions plus Dodd-Frank means they will now never be allowed to fail, to borrow even more recklessly than before and gamble on stocks, bonds and derivatives.

    As Dodd Frank stands, the next Hank Paulson won't need to ask Congress for money to bail them out, Dodd Frank gives the next treasury secretary a blank check to bail them out without any input from congress.

    Truly as I watch the Fed gangsters, the politician gangsters and the bank gangsters, I despair.
    Oct 18 04:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily Mail says Chesapeake a rumored target of oil majors [View news story]
    usually when these rumors , its better to wait for a few days and then pick it up on a dip.
    Oct 18 07:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: A Black Box Of Mystery [View article]
    Impressive! good in depth look.
    Oct 17 07:28 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Evans adds new demands in order to cut stimulus [View news story]
    Just watch the stock market inflate to all time highs to see where all that money is going. Soon banks will be again financing NINJA loans to create a steady stream of MBS to sell to the ravenous Fed. Previously they had to sell to Freddie and Fannie, the Fed has just replaced Freddie and Fannie.

    The NINJA loans at low rates will feed an explosion in housing prices again along with an blimp like inflation of the stock market. Price of oil will scale the $150 per barrel mark and gas will easily hit $6/gallon.

    All this because a bunch of educated fools are allowed to do whatever they want in the name of "independence".
    Oct 17 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook higher, Goldman sees another strong quarter for mobile [View news story]
    Goldman is pushing this. So, little children, what should you do?

    I remember being short A123 (AONE) Goldman raised PT's and gave it a buy rating when it was six bucks and change. A few months later, continuing on the exact same trajectory, AONE was bankrupt.

    I have a strong feeling Goldman is going short as its analysts pump the stock.
    Oct 17 02:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook changes policies for teens amid popularity concerns [View news story]
    Nothing to see here folks, move on, move on. Just after the One appeared at TechCrunch Disrupt and insisted that he's not seeing any teen disengagement in the visitor data, all this is wheeled out.

    Remember folks, this is the same guy who tipped off friends at large banks that revenues were slowing - but not retail investors by updating the S-1 - just before the IPO. Large banks cashed out, retail took painful 50% losses, more if they used margin. Made-off atleast bilked people who could afford it.

    This guy's victims were small mom and pop investors on Main street who could ill afford the loss. collectively they must have lost around $50 billion, just as much as Made-off.

    What's to say any earnings surprises won't be, ahem, orally delivered to favored friends again?
    Oct 16 07:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Q3 Earnings Announcement: What Matters [View article]
    What's a billion dollar shortfall between friends?
    Oct 16 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Earnings Preview: Weathered The Storm, But Is Big Blue Out Of The Woods ? [View article]
    "I would be shocked to see it trade below $170."

    Give it a couple of days and you'll see a 169 handle
    Oct 16 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment